AFL Preview Round 13: Cats v Tigers

Geelong v Richmond
Sun 3:20pm at MCG

The last game for Round 13 will be an absolute BLOCKBUSTER, with the Cats taking on the Tigers at the MCG for Sunday’s sole game. In a mirror of last year’s final controversy, Geelong will once again be playing a home game at the ‘G against the Tiges- a huge advantage for a side that has won an incredible 15 games in a row at the venue. Richmond suffered just their third loss for the year before the bye, and will relish being back at home, but they come up against a Geelong side that is starting to hit some really good form. All signs points to an absolute thriller, and given the expected rain and wind, this could go right down to the wire.

Form

Geelong (WLWWW) – There has certainly been a couple of disappointing performances this year from the Cats but last week’s win against the Roos reminded us what a class side they can be. With Ablett, Selwood, Danger, Menegola and Duncan leading the midfield; Tom Stewart and Mark Blicavs being revelations down back and Hawkins finally hitting some form, the spine of the Cats side is very strong. To touch on Hawkins, he looks to be covering the ground better than ever- culminating in a 23 disposal, 11 mark and 3 goal performance against the Roos, despite their experienced defence. 

Richmond (WLWWL) – Another interstate trip, another loss for the Tigers. They’ve now lost all 3 away trips this year, two in Adelaide and one in Perth. They were absolutely smashed around the ball against Port, with Ryder convincing beating Nankervis and Rockliff, Wingard, Wines and Powell-Pepper leading the Power to +14 in the clearance battle against a Dusty-less midfield. They’ve looked unbeatable at stages this season, but when they have been exposed it has been when opposition teams have controlled the ball and taken the Tigers pressure out of the equation. That said, they haven’t been exposed at the MCG yet, nor have they been for a looong time. 

Stats That Matter– Geelong have won 13 of the last 14 meetings
– Josh Caddy has kicked 4+ goals in 4 of his last 6 matches
– Richmond have won 15 straight at the ‘G
– Gary Ablett averages 122 Fantasy Points per game against the Tigers
– The Cats have had 10 straight games go Unders
– Patrick Dangerfield averaged 30 disposals and 122 Fantasy Points in their 2 meetings last year
– Richmond are 1-4 ATS in their last 5

Betting Data

2018 Line: Geelong- 7-5; Richmond- 6-6
2018 Over-Under: Geelong- 2-10; Richmond- 6-6

What To Expect

The Wolf cannot wait for this clash- it is shaping up as an old fashioned slog and that is just the way Wolfie likes it. It’s hard to see, in the conditions, this game being a blow-out, so Wolfie is leaning towards the Either Team Under 15 market. Given the nature of Richmond’s games, you can also bet quite safely into Geelong Player Prop markets- Richmond have had the leading possession getter on the ground just once this season (and regularly give up +30 disposals to multiple players during a game).

How It’s Shaping UpRichmond by 3

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Triple Margin 15.5- ANY OTHER RESULT ($2.25)
Value Bet: TBA
Player Prop: TBA
First Goalscorer: Josh Caddy