Brazil v Switzerland: Tite's men can find a way past dogged Swiss defence

Brazil v Switzerland
Sunday, 19:00
Live on ITV

Seleção looking good

Brazil's redemption mission starts here. Four years on from the seismic shock of that semi-final defeat to Germany on home soil, the Seleção are back on the biggest stage and determined to make amends. Confidence has been restored by popular manager Tite, and their form has been impeccable: they've won 17 of 21 under his stewardship, losing only once in a low-wattage friendly against Argentina.

The timely return of Neymar is a major boost to their chances this summer - he scored in both pre-tournament friendlies - but this is no longer a one-man team: Gabriel Jesus, Willian and Philippe Coutinho all shoulder some of the responsibility in the final third, while the defence has been extremely frugal. Little wonder, then, that Brazil are rated as favourites for glory this summer.

Swiss defence works like clockwork

Are Switzerland the sixth best team in the world, as per the latest FIFA rankings? Of course not. But La Nati did sneak out of their group at both World Cup 2014 and Euro 2016, and that kind of tournament nous should serve them well in what is a fairly balanced section, Brazil aside.

Vladimir Petković is a wily coach, and what Switzerland lack in star power (Xherdan Shaqiri is the only name to get the pulse racing) they make up for with defensive organisation: in Yann Sommer, Stephan Lichtsteiner, Manuel Akanji, Fabian Schär and Ricardo Rodríguez, they have one of the most settled backlines in the competition. They have kept 11 clean sheets in 14 games and showed recently against Spain (1-1) that they can make life tough for more talented opponents.

Brazil should shade it

Petković has made no secret of the fact that he would regard a draw as a great result here, which probably means we expect a cautious approach from the underdogs. The hope will be that playing Brazil first is advantageous: with Neymar still building up his fitness, the Seleção might not yet be able to access top gear. 4.80 for the draw may tempt, therefore.

Yet Brazil, despite their preference for counter-attacking, have been working hard at finding solutions when opponents sit deep with men behind the ball. The 0-0 draw with England in November was an eye-opener for Tite, and in recent games his players have been noticeably more patient in the face of frustration: they took time to break down Croatia and Austria, but did find a way through eventually.

With that in mind, an unspectacular Brazil victory looks the most likely outcome. They're only 1.45 to win, but Brazil to win and under 2.5 goals looks like decent value at 11/5.

Goals not guaranteed

Brazil have kept 16 clean sheets in 21 games and will be confident of blunting a mediocre Swiss attack. Switzerland's defensive prowess has been outlined above, so under 2.5 goals definitely looks the way to go in the goal markets at 1.97. Any victory will satisfy Tite's side, and we may not see real fireworks from them until later in the group stage.

Little Paul can have big impact

Neymar is the obvious name that jumps out in the goalscorer markets, but there could well be value in siding with Paulinho in these group games. The midfielder has scored seven goals since Tite brought him back into the fray and should be available at around 3.50 to find the net in Rostov.

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Kep Opta Stats for Brazil v Switzerland

Brazil and Switzerland’s only previous World Cup encounter was on Brazilian soil in 1950, it ended 2-2. The draw is 4.90.

Brazil have won the World Cup more times than any other team, lifting the trophy in 25% of the tournaments played so far (5 out of 20). They are the 5.10 favourites to win the World Cup.

Brazil are unbeaten in their last 12 World Cup group games, winning 10 (D2), their last defeat in the group phase dating back to 1998 against Norway. They are 1.43 to win.

Brazil have also won 16 of their last 18 opening games at the World Cup (D2). The last time they lost their first game in the tournament was in 1934 against Spain (1-3). Brazil are 2.04to win half-time/full-time.

Meanwhile, Switzerland are unbeaten in their opening game in each of their last four appearances, winning the last two (v Spain in 2010, Ecuador in 2014). Switzerland are 9.60 to win.

Switzerland have topped their group only once previously at the World Cup, it was in 2006. That was the year they became the only team not to concede a single goal at a World Cup (4 games, 0 goal conceded). They are 8.80 to finish top of Group E.

Switzerland won all bar one of their games in the regular qualifying phase for Russia 2018 (W9 L1), the only exception coming against Portugal away. They are 7.60 in the Draw No Bet market.

Xherdan Shaqiri has been directly involved in five of Switzerland’s last six goals at major tournaments (4 goals, 1 assist). He’s also the last player to score a hat-trick at the World Cup (v Honduras, 25 June 2014). Shaqiri is 4.50 to score.

Neymar was involved in five of Brazil’s 11 goals at the last World Cup (4 goals, 1 assist). He was also involved in more goals than any other player in the CONMEBOL qualifiers for the 2018 World Cup (6 goals, 8 assists). Neymar is 1.73 to add to his tally.

Handed the role in June 2016, Brazil manager Tite will experience his first World Cup. His Brazil side picked up 41 points in qualifying, winning 12 and losing only one of their 18 games, the best tally in CONMEBOL since Argentina’s 43 points in the 2002 World Cup qualifiers. Brazil are 1.29 to win Group E.