Parramatta Eels v St George Illawarra Dragons Saturday, August 11, 7:35pm ANZ Stadium, Sydney
The Eels will feel like they owe the Dragons one after their 20-18 loss in Wollongong earlier in the season. Brad Arthur’s men looked to have the match in the bag, before the Dragons produced an unlikely victory. The Eels have shuffled their side around, with rookie Jaeman Salmon starting at five-eighth, with Corey Norman moving to fullback, Clint Gutherson to centre and Jarryd Hayne to the wing. The Dragons have lost enforcer Paul Vaughan for this clash due to an ankle injury which will keep him sidelined for the next four weeks.
Recent FormParramatta are last on the ladder with a 5-15 record. They are the second worst scoring team in the NRL while they rank 12th in defence. The Eels have won two of their last three. They have scored 18 or more in five of seven. St George Illawarra have lost four of their last five and are down to fourth on the ladder. The Saints rank fourth in scoring while they sixth in defence. The Saints have conceded 18 or more in five of six.
Stats That Matter– Parramatta are 8-12 ATS with a 13-7 under number while St George Illawarra are 10-10 ATS with a 14-6 under record. – The Eels have won six of seven against the Dragons and only went down 20-18 when the teams met in Wollongong six rounds back. – Three of the last four have topped 38 points. – The Eels have scored 30 or more in three of their last six against the Dragons. – Home underdogs of 6.5 or more off a win are 50-21 ATS since 2008 while teams off a double digit win are 27-9 ATS. – The Eels are 19-17 ATS with a 24-12 under record at ANZ while the Saints are 5-11 ATS with a 10-6 under record. – The under is 18-8 in Eels night matches at ANZ, going under in 10 of 13. – The under is 8-3 when the Eels play at ANZ off a double digit win. – Parramatta are 8-5 ATS as an underdog at ANZ while they have covered 4 of 5 as an underdog of 4 or more. – The under has hit in 11 of 13 Eels games off a cover. – The Dragons have covered just two of their last nine while they have covered just two of eight as a favourite.
Final ThoughtsThe Dragons are in a worrying form slump that doesn’t look like ending here. The Red V have lost four of their last five matches, and have lost six of their last seven matches against the Eels. Meanwhile, Parramatta have won two of their last three matches and could have very easily beaten the table-topping Rabbitohs in Round 20. The 6.5 start for the Eels looks like a great bet and is The Wolf’s best bet of the week.
How It Shapes UpParramatta by 4
Recommended Bets Best: Parramatta +6.5 ($1.91) Value: Parramatta ($2.80) First Tryscorer: Corey Norman ($17)