Scunthorpe United v Burton Albion Saturday 10th November, 15:00
The market has this pretty tight on the outright Match Betting with Scunthorpe at 2.74 and Burton at 2.56. Whatever way the result goes, I am hoping there will be a goal or two with this pair. Indeed, any match with the Iron at the moment screams goals.
Last time out, Scunthorpe conceded three at home to Oxford - a side who barely score away. That took their tally of hitting the Over 2.5 Goals mark to five of their last seven matches. It has taken a while for the backers to get on red alert with these two, as the Over 2.5 is priced at 1.85, which is a fair number. The 3.5 can be backed at 3.20.
I fancy Burton to win, as I like their cup and knockout football mentality. It's worked in the last two seasons in the EFL Cup, and they should go to Glanford Park with a bit of confidence.
The Brewers are scoring too lately; they have 13 in their last six matches, and have registered a 'Yes' on the Both Teams To Score in seven of their last eight.
Burton could stick with their 4-3-3 and they play some good football. Manager Nigel Cloughhas been utilising the pace of Devante Cole recently, which has shifted the star player Liam Boyce out to the left. It seems to be working.
Take the higher price on Cup shock
Shrewsbury Town v Salford City Sunday 11th November, 12:45
League One isn't easy to predict, and sides like Shrewsbury can make life difficult. Recently they beat a very good Barnsley team (that are chasing the title) 3-0 at the Meadow. Their very next game they lost to struggling Oxford. The gap was just four days. A complete contrast of performances.
For that reason I will swerve the 1.91 for the hosts. I often tell myself not to back odds-on with the outright in League One, but sometimes I get sucked in. The Blackpool bet was another last weekend.
Salford at [3.10] is very tempting, Everything at the club is geared to enter the Football League. And yes they have the backing and high profile, but from the outside it looks a top set-up with Graham Alexander now the manager.
They are unbeaten since August and have scored 18 on the road. In fact, they have failed to score in just one game all season and they have goal threats in Adam Rooney and Rory Gaffney.
I am happy to back the away team here, as a Cup run will be high on the agenda for City. The visitors might play two leagues below, but it wouldn't be the biggest of shocks considering Salford's budget. The market tells us that.
Mad on Hatters to beat Wanderers
Luton Town v Wycombe Wanderers Saturday 11th November, 15:00
Luton are one of the form teams of League One at the moment, and this all-third-tier tie should see the Hatters progress into the pot for round two. Although they haven't exactly been missed at 1.67.
The visitors here probably shouldn't be as big as 6.00, but even though I often talk about price, I just can't see Wycombe winning this despite their excellent record historically at Kenilworth Road - as they have won four of their last five games there. Opta Stats also give a positive mention to Luton, as they have progressed to the FA Cup second round in each of the last four seasons.
I like the way Luton play, they pass quickly and have a decent midfield that keeps the game ticking along. They have won six of their last eight, and they have been priced up as very short for a couple of months now. Unfortunately they will be without Danny Hylton - who has scored five in nine appearances. He starts a suspension and will miss Saturday.
The home victory is obvious, but I don't like the price. I fancy Luton to score a few here as they have found the back of the net in every single league game at home this season, which points me towards the Over 2.5 bet.
Back Both Teams To Score 'Yes' Scunthorpe v Burton 0.5pt @ 1.80
Back Burton to beat Scunthorpe 0.5pt @ 2.56
Back Salford City Draw No Bet v Shrewsbury 0.5pt @ 2.20