Serie A Betting: Lazio to pummel Milan, Genoa glow in the Derby

More pain for Milan

Lazio v Milan
Sunday, 17:00
Live on Eleven Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video

The biggest game of the weekend comes at the Olimpico on Sunday afternoon, as decimated Milan face Lazio with Gennaro Gattuso fighting for his job.

Normally, the bet here would be goals. This is a fixture which has traditionally providing high scoring games, and with both of these sides set up to attack, and not great defensively, all logic points to some kind of "overs" bet.

That, though, has to be overridden by Milan's injury concerns, which are almost ridiculous. They're already without the suspended Gonzalo Higuain, which severely blunts their goal threat, and you can add to his name those of their best defender Alessio Romagnoli, their most influential midfielder Lucas Biglia, and other key men in Giacomo Bonaventura and Mateo Musacchio.

Hakan Calhanoglu looks likely to be absent, and Davide Calabria and Patrick Cutrone are doubtful. It's a mess that raises questions about the preparation of the Rossoneri players, and gives Lazio a huge chance of putting some distance between themselves in fourth place and Milan in fifth.

Simone Inzaghi's team have won five of their last seven in all competitions and are cruising along nicely. I don't think that they'll need to be at their best to win this, and if they are, then it could be embarrassing for Gattuso and his side. So it's simple at a short price. Back Lazio. I'll be surprised if they let us down.

Dramatic Derby della Lanterna

Genoa v Sampdoria
Sunday, 19:30
Live on Eleven Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video

Twice in every Serie A season I describe this as one of the great, unheralded derby games in European football, and twice I tell you to make sure that you try to get to at least one Derby Della Lanterna in your football watching lifetimes. So, listen again and get booking those flights.

Aside from the sense of occasion and the grandeur which catches you by surprise, there's a bet to be had on Sunday night at Marassi, and I think that the nominal home team are worth supporting.

Ivan Juric would seem, once again, to be clinging onto his job at Genoa, but their performance against Napoli last time suggests that good times may be just around the corner. They were outstanding, and desperately unlucky that a weather delay allowed Napoli to find their rhythm and battle to a win.

Samp are a strange team to judge at the moment, and the international break certainly came at a good time for them. They've now lost three consecutive games and conceded 11 goals in the process, and their fans must fear a season spent hovering in mid table.

Samp have won four of the last five of these derbies, but Genoa look to me to be a side that is really starting to play for their manager. Juric is a popular man, and you can expect his team to throw everything that they have at Samp to keep him in a job, and them on the right track. They look a bet at 2.70 to give him a lifeline.

Celebration at the Tardini

Parma v Sassuolo
Sunday, 11:30
Live on Eleven Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video

Only two points separate Sassuolo and Parma in the Serie A table, and yet we can back the home team Parma at 3.20, and that looks a price which is too good to ignore.

Goalscoring has been Parma's issue of late, and they had failed to score for three consecutive games before they won dramatically at Torino last time, the kind of victory that could give them serious momentum.

Roberto Inglese and Gervinho are both capable of being a threat, and given that Gervinho has scored in three of the four home games in which he's played this season, I'm confident that he can at least trouble Roberto De Zerbi's team.

I'm a fan of the way that Sassuolo have gone about their business this season, and they've been a good friend to this column in this campaign, but their only win in their last six was against Chievo, and while their draw against Lazio last time was a good result, I just don't see any reason why they're so heavily favoured for this.

Parma have been steady and unspectacular so far on their return to Serie A, but there's nothing wrong with that, and they're worth siding with here against a team who are a lot closer to being their peer than the prices would suggest.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Lazio to beat Milan @ 1.87

Back Genoa to beat Sampdoria @ 2.70 

Back Parma to beat Sassuolo @ 3.20