Brighton v Derby: Rams to continue cup charge under Lampard

Brighton v Derby
Saturday 16 February, 12:30
Live on BT Sport

Precarious position

Brighton appeared set for a fairly clear go at an FA Cup run when they entered the competition six weeks ago with a 10-point gap between them and the relegation zone in the Premier League, but they do not look anywhere near as safe now.

Chris Hughton's side have progressed to the fifth round by knocking out Bournemouth and West Brom but in that time they have taken only one point from five league games and now sit just three points clear of the drop zone.

That precarious position might influence Hughton's team selection. Forward Florin Andoneis definitely out through suspension for his elbow against West Brom's Sam Field in the fourth round and Solly March is an injury doubt after going off in last week's league game against Burnley. Jose Izquierdo is back in training but is unlikely to feature.

Good cup form

Derby are seventh in the Championship, outside the playoff places only on goal difference, and they knocked out Southampton of the Premier League in the FA Cup third round before dispatching League One side Accrington to set up this tie.

Frank Lampard's side also had a decent run in the League Cup, knocking out Manchester United when they were managed by Jose Mourinho and then going down 3-2 away to Chelsea (who have reached the final).

Lampard has tended to select strong line-ups in cup matches but this game comes only three days after their 1-1 draw at Ipswich in the Championship.

Lampard looks set to recall midfield pairing Tom Huddlestone and Craig Bryson, who were both left out of the starting team at Ipswich, and is likely to put out his strongest defence with Kelle Roos continuing in goal while Scott Carson recovers from a thigh strain. Midfielder Mason Mount is doubtful with a hamstring problem.

Willingness to attack

Brighton's strength since joining the Premier League last season has been their home record but they have gone off the boil with only two wins in nine games at the Amex in all competitions since the end of October.

Most alarmingly, they lost 3-1 at home to Burnley last weekend - the only other Premier League sides to score so heavily at the Amex were Liverpool and Chelsea, both last season.

Derby's only defeat in seven cup matches under Lampard was away to Chelsea and they have drawn their other meetings with Premier League clubs (all 2-2, away to Manchester United and home and away against Southampton).

They also scored twice in defeat at Chelsea, which underscores their ability to raise their game against elite opponents and their willingness to attack rather than sit back and defend.

The Rams arrive in good form, having lost only two of their 15 games in all competitions since the start of December (those defeats were against Championship top-three sides Leeds and Sheffield United).

Brighton have to be favourites but they are on a poor run and difficult to trust with confidence even against a second-tier side. They had a goalless draw at home to West Brom in the fourth round and Derby could cause them more problems, especially with Harry Wilson's set-piece delivery.

Team selection will have to be monitored but Derby are capable of an upset if Lampard puts out a similar side as in previous rounds.

Solid set-up

Brighton's home games tend to be low-scoring as they set up to be hard to beat and nine out of 15 at the Amex in all competitions have had under 2.5 goals (seven out of 10 when games against big-six sides are excluded).

Last week's 3-1 defeat by Burnley may prove an aberration but Derby's attacking intent could push up the score. Nine of their 14 games this season against teams above them in the league structure (in league or cup) have had over 2.5 goals.

Opta Stat

Derby are looking to reach the FA Cup quarter-final for the first time since 1998-99, losing at this stage four times since. Brighton are 1.82 to win.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Derby to win at 4.80