Liverpool v Arsenal: Motivated Gunners can claim win

Arsenal have a track record of winning games with a below-strength side and can repeat the trick against what is likely to be a much-changed Liverpool on Wednesday.

Liverpool v Arsenal
Wednesday, 19:30
Live on Sky Sports Football

You rarely get 1.89 about Liverpool winning a home game these days and it's doubtless a price which will attract many ahead of this last-16 tie.

However, while the Carabao Cup always bring with a fog when it comes to looking at the team news, it seems more likely that Arsenal will be the ones fielding a team most resembling their first XI.

Gunners need a result

With Unai Emery under increasing pressure, he can ill afford one of the Anfield defeats which Arsenal have become accustomed too - they've already lost 3-1 there in the Premier League this season.

A home league game (against Wolves) follows on Saturday, not the worst game to have after a midweek outing, while the Gunners are going along nicely in the Europa League and know a home win next Thursday would all but take them through to the knockout stage.

Even if Emery does decide to leave out a number of his stars, then Arsenal's back-up players are now well adjusted to life together. They've fielded a reserve XI for large parts of two long Europa League runs in the past two seasons, while several domestic cup ties have been negotiated with a youthful side.

Several of those players are now making an impression on the first XI too - think Joe Willock and Bukayo Saka.

In short, they are used to winning together.

The same cannot be said of Liverpool's back-up players.

Second string may fall short

Jurgen Klopp has not had the same opportunity to blood youngsters with his club being in the Champions League. And when he's given them a chance domestically, it's often failed to reap dividends.

Liverpool lost at Wolves with a youthful team in last season's FA Cup and while they did overcome MK Dons in the last round of this competition, they failed to truly convince. A goalkeeping howler gifted them the lead and the Dons had some great chances to level before eventually losing 2-0.

Keeper Caoimhin Kelleher played that day as did Ki-Jana Hoever (unavailable for this game), while the front three had an unfamiliar look - teenagers Harvey Elliott, Rhian Brewster and Curtis Jones.

While a stronger XI can be expected here, it's hard to see Virgil van Dijk, Mo Salah and Joel Matip being risked after recent knocks, while it also looks an ideal opportunity for Sadio Mane - who played virtually all summer - and the much-used Andy Robertson to get some rest.

The bottom line is the Carabao Cup is the lowest priority on Klopp's list.

Yes, he'll still have England internationals Joe Gomez, Adam Lallana and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain ready to step in but it will still be a scratch team with little experience of playing together as a unit.

For me, this makes Arsenal of interest at 4.20.

The competition means more to them and there's a real need to produce a performance, especially after Sunday's home draw with Crystal Palace - a game they led 2-0 and one in which captain Granit Xhaka decided to take on his own fans, who have long been on his back.

Fixture's goals history

Moving on, it's no surprise to see over 2.5 goals at 1.57 given the history of this fixture.

In the seven meetings since Klopp arrived at Anfield, that bar has been cleared on six occasions. In fact, all six games in question have seen over 3.5 goals (2.34 this time) and four of them over 5.5 (a 7.80 chance).

Still, with so much uncertainty over who will play I'm always loath to head down such a route.

Keep it clean

I prefer a cards bet, or rather one focusing on a lack of them - no cards can be backed at 20/1 via the Sportsbook's last booking market and that looks big.

The thinking behind it is that the game is being refereed by Andre Marriner, one of the most lenient Premier League referees.

He's already taken charge of a no-card game at Anfield this season (when Newcastle were the visitors) and Liverpool are one of the best-behaved sides in the top flight - they sit second in the fair-play table at present having topped it in 2018/19.

The card count in the domestic cups is lower on average and Marriner produced just three cards in his four FA Cup ties this season, showing none in one of them.

Arsenal, whose discipline is much worse, are the problem here and undoubtedly the reason the price is so high, but with the most recent make-ups in meetings between these two being 2-3-2-1, a lenient ref being in charge and this being a League Cup tie, a small-stakes punt at 20/1 looks worth a try.

Opta fact

Liverpool have lost consecutive League Cup matches at Anfield - 0-1 against Southampton in 2016/17 and 1-2 against Chelsea last season; this is their worst ever run in the competition on home soil.