ATP Paris Masters Day Two: Verdasco to double up his day one winner

There's more action at the Paris Masters on Tuesday, with first and second round matches taking place. Our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, discusses today's schedule...

Verdasco gives us a good start on day one

We had a good start to our Paris Masters campaign with Fernando Verdasco getting us a three-set underdog victory over Borna Coric, who has really disappointed towards the end of the season, and the Spaniard's reward is a second round meeting with Alexander Zverev - more on this later.

Our hopes for our outright pick in the bottom half of the draw - long-shot Denis Shapovalov - also received a boost with the withdrawal of Roger Federer, which was something I discussed as being possible in the outright preview given the Swiss veteran's continued desire to manage his schedule to avoid expending considerable energy.

Lajovic and Fritz looking like slight early value

Moving back to today's action though, we have six first round matches as that stage concludes, and four matches in the second round, as that round gets underway. In the early matches in round one, I think that the market has a couple of the matches priced the wrong way around, with Dusan Lajovic priced at 2.12 against the lucky loser, Corentin Moutet being the first.

Lajovic is certainly nothing to write home about indoors but Moutet's serve numbers illustrate that he's unlikely to be able to succeed at this level without notable improvement, and I expect that this match will be one of the more return orientated clashes of the day.

In the second early match I mentioned, Frances Tiafoe looks short at 1.89 against Taylor Fritz - I perceive both are a little over-rated by the market in general currently, but I think Fritz, who I think has more long-term potential as well, to have a decent chance of taking this as a very marginal underdog.

Verdasco can compete against Zverev

The majority of other prices look about right to me, although for today's recommendation, I'm going for a Verdasco double to back up yesterday's winner in tonight's match, starting not before 2000 UK time. Verdasco's service/return points won numbers this year are simply better than his win-loss record on hard courts (I mentioned yesterday, for example, that his last six losses were all in tight three-setters), while the reverse is arguable for Zverev, whose strong tiebreak record on hard courts this year has been of benefit to the German top ten player.

Zverev being a little over-rated by the market is nothing new, but I think Verdasco can compete here. The 'Verdasco to win a set' market is still to take shape, but should settle at around even money for the 'yes' outcome.

We can also consider Verdasco on the game handicap. The +3.5 game line is 2.10, with the +4.5 game line likely to settle around the 1.65 mark. It could be worth buying that extra game, given that it enables a one break in each set type 6-4 6-4 scoreline to be a winner, but he's covered +3.5 in all but one of his recent three set defeats and I'll take a risk with the bigger price around the +3.5 games at 2.10.

Shapovalov among others in action on day two

In other matches, our outright pick, Denis Shapovalov, starts his tournament against Gilles Simon, while the highly rated by the outright market, Daniil Medvedev, does likewise (after a first round bye) as he faces Jeremy Chardy. British eyes will be on Kyle Edmund, who has had a torrid recent run of results, and he's a marginal favourite over Ricardas Berankis, who is no mug indoors.