Burnley v Tottenham: In-form hosts can outscore Spurs

Burnley are one of the Premier League's form teams and Dave Tindall thinks they can continue their fine run at home to ailing Spurs...

Burnley v Tottenham
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Hosts almost there with 10 to spare

Earlier in the campaign there was a feeling that this was perhaps a season too far for Burnley. Perhaps the players had stopped listening to Sean Dyche. Perhaps other teams had worked Burnley out.

But time and time again the Clarets prove people wrong and here they are with 38 points from 28 games and just a win short of the mythical 40 which makes a Premier League team safe for the season.

That tally is just two short of Tottenham's and Burnley are without doubt the form side with four wins and two draws in their latest six Premier League games.

That's 14 points from the last 18. That's second only to runaway leaders Liverpool in the 'last 6 matches' form table.

Tottenham showing worrying signs

While Burnley thrive, Spurs stagger from one crisis to another.

No strikers, discontent at the style of football under Jose Mourinho, a first-leg home loss to RB Leipzig in the Champions League, back-to-back Premier League defeats against Chelsea and Wolves and another trophy-less season to deal with after the FA Cup exit to Norwich.

The defeat on penalties to the Canaries represented a fourth straight loss and while Eric Dier's jump into the crowd took some of the headlines away from Tottenham's defeat, it's been a grim run.

An away game may just act as some welcome relief although Tottenham have managed just three away wins in 14 road trips so there's no obvious reason for fans to expect a celebratory return south.

Burnley favourites

It must be an awful long time ago that Burnley were favourites to beat Spurs but that's the case on Saturday and it's hard to disagree.

Burnley are 2.76 to pile more misery on Mourinho's men and continue their own climb. Tottenham are 2.86 while The Draw is the outsider of the three options at 3.40.

Spurs thrashed Burnley 5-0 in early December with Harry Kane scoring twice although much has changed since.

Kane's absence along with that of Heung-Min Son (also a scorer in that 5-0) is obviously a big blow although the goals haven't dried up. Spurs have actually scored in their last eight domestic fixtures and that helps shape my first bet...

Hosts can outscore visitors

Only four teams have won more home games than Burnley's seven so they're a solid outfit at Turf Moor. I'm happy to give them the nod given Tottenham's troubles.

They won this fixture 2-1 last season and something similar looks a reasonable prediction so I'll find a bet that involves a Spurs goal too.

The obvious solution is to head to the Match Odds and Both teams to Score market and back Burnley/Yes at 5.10.

It's landed in three of their last five wins so I'm happy to add the risk of both teams scoring in order to get the better odds.

Overs looks best

A win with both teams scoring by definition means I'm expecting Over 2.5 goals and that's the underdog at 2.12.

It's landed in three of the last four head-to-head games between this pair which adds some further confidence.

Wood can show his mettle

Chris Wood has double figures for the season in the Premier League and he's netted in six of his last 10 top-flight home games for Burnley.

The New Zealand striker bagged the opener in this fixture last season so there's enough there to make him a punt at 2.52 in the To Score market - especially with Tottenham having conceded 10 goals in their last five domestic fixtures.

Opta Stat

Tottenham have conceded at least two goals in 50% of their 16 Premier League matches under Jose Mourinho (8/16) - his highest such ratio in a single stint as manager in the competition (next highest, Man Utd 24.7%).