The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2019-20: Round 29
Jake is on the charge and is just a few pounds off long-time leader Dan after another winner last time out, while the other three are tightly bunched. Here's where their tenners are headed this weekend..
Toffees to get a result in Ancelotti derby
Dan Thomas Back Everton/Draw v Chelsea and Both Teams to Score at2.88 (Same Game Multi) Sunday, 14:00 Live on Sky Sports
Chelsea had an excellent win over a much changed Liverpool side in the FA Cup in midweek and are looking to build on their victory over Spurs last time out in the league at Stamford Bridge but I'm not sure they should be odds-on against an improving Everton outfit.
Frank Lampard's men have only won three of the past eight at home in the league and are severely weakened in midfield, with the suspended Jorginho joining the injured N'Golo Kante and Mateo Kovacic on the sidelines.
They face a Toffees side who were desperately unlucky to have only picked up one point from their games against Arsenal and Manchester United and have become a potent attacking force under former Chelsea boss Carlo Ancelotti, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin in red hot form (scored five in the last six).
I'll take Everton to emerge with at least a point and add in both teams to score to boost the price - it's landed in all of their last six games in the league and four of the last five for Chelsea.
Wolves to win again
Jake Osgathorpe Back Wolves to win and BTTS v Brighton @3.60 Saturday, 15:00
Wolves put themselves back in the race for a top four spot following a brilliant 3-2 win at Tottenham last weekend, a fully deserved success according to expected goals (xG: TOT 2.04 - 2.57 WOL) that put them sixth and just three points behind Chelsea.
It was a big win, and they have been so impressive this season, winning the xG battle in 21 of their 28 league games, so sit fourth in our xG table, creating plenty of good chances on a regular basis as their attacking players are purring right now.
In their last seven games, Wolves have generated an average of 2.23 xGF per game, so their attacking process is on the up, and Brighton could bare the brunt of that here, though Nuno's side do give you chances if you are brave - which the Seagulls are.
Graham Potter's side are yet to win in 2020 (eight PL games), but their performances have been solid, winning the xG battle in five of those games, and their process has been good in that time (1.80 xGF, 1.60 xGA per game).
They will create here, but Wolves' class should shine through, and I think they will get the win in the end, with both teams scoring. At [3.6,] that looks a good bet to me.
Back goals at the Emirates
Mike Norman Back Over 3.5 Goals in Arsenal v West Ham @2.68 Saturday, 15:00
Both Arsenal and West Ham have lots still to play for as we enter the home straight in this season's Premier League.
The Hammers arguably have the bigger need, being out of the relegation zone only on goal difference. David Moyes' men performed very well at Liverpool recently, and they backed that up with a comfortable 3-1 win over Southampton last weekend. Five goals in two games offers plenty of optimism.
I fancy the Hammers will go to the Emirates with the same intent they showed at Anfield, and that should set us up for a belter of a game with Arsenal still firmly in the hunt for a top five finish - a position the currently qualifies you for the Champions League.
So I fancy both teams to go for the three points, and given that there has been at least three goals scored in six of the last seven league matches between these two at the Emirates, then there's no reason we shouldn't witness goals.
Those last seven league meetings at the Emirates Stadium have witnessed 27 goals in fact, that's very nearly an average of four per game. We can back Over 3.5 Goals here at 2.68 and that's this week's bet for me.
Back goals at Burnley
Joe Dyer Back Over 2.5 Goals in Burnley v Tottenham @2.14 Saturday, 17:30
Tottenham to be terrified at Turf Moor
Jasmine Baba Back Burnley to win and Under 3.5 Goals v Tottenham @3.30 Saturday, 17:30
We were so close on our selection last week with Everton drawing 1-1 to Manchester United with a last minute VAR call ruling out what would have been a winner for the home side, but we move on and this time I fancy the 15/8 about Burnley to beat Tottenham at Turf Moor.
Spurs have not looked good for a while, as stated in my Top Six review on February 12. They got remarkably lucky in the last minute to win against Aston Villa (ruining my bet for that week), but they were shown up as predicted against Chelsea and then Wolves last week.
More surprisingly in the latter match, they led into the second half 2-1, didn't register a shot on target and lost 3-2 at home. They sit back because without Harry Kane and Heung-min Son their attack is lacking. But they're not good enough to do that and defend; they have conceded at least two goals in 50% of their 16 Premier League matches under Jose Mourinho.
To put that into context, they have a worst defensive record than their North London rivals (39 v 36). On top of this, Mourinho's men have played 120 minutes midweek against Norwich where they were dumped out of the FA Cup and, in his own words, is planning to tell the Tottenham board to choose to focus on this game or their upcoming Tuesday Champions League game away at RB Leipzig.
Burnley, on the other hand have turned a corner. They're the second most in-form team in the Premier League after Liverpool. The home side are unbeaten in their last six matches in the Premier League (W4 D2) and have only conceded two goals in this period. With Spurs on tired legs and the Clarets' improved defence, I'm backing Burnley to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 3.30 on the Sportsbook's Same Game Multi.