Wolves v Brighton: No hope for the Seagulls

Wolves aim to enhance their Champions League prospects against Brighton on Saturday, and Paul Robinson believes that they will, in an entertaining affair.

Wolves v Brighton
Saturday March 7, 15:00

No signs of fatigue for Wolves

Wolves are enjoying an incredible season, as despite having to start it in July, they find themselves still in good form in March. They beat Spurs on Sunday, to move level on points with Manchester United in fifth - just three points behind Chelsea in fourth.

Nuno Espírito Santo's side are also through to the last 16 of the Europa League, and where they have improved their game this year is in front of goal.

Last season they scored 47 Premier League goals, at an average of 1.24 per 90 minutes, whereas this year they already have 41 in 28 fixtures - an average of 1.46. Diogo Jota and Raul Jimenez are both in top form, and Matt Doherty is one of the best attacking full-backs in the league.

Relegation a real possibility for Brighton

The Seagulls are bang in trouble, as despite an improvement in the way, they are just one point ahead of Bournemouth in 18th. They were beaten by Palace at home last weekend, and only Norwich have won fewer games this season.

Graham Potter will be bitterly disappointed with the way his side performed against Crystal Palace, and they still have Arsenal, Leicester, Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City to play.

Dale Stephens could come back into the first XI, having returned from injury to be on the bench last week. The manager doesn't have a deep squad to choose from though, so I wouldn't expect a raft of changes.

A home win - but bet in-play

As expected, the hosts are odds-on for this clash, and it's not hard to see why. They are unbeaten in four - winning their last two - and in their last seven outings, only Liverpool have beaten them.

Their price on the Betfair Exchange is currently trading at around the 1.69 mark, and to be perfectly honest, I wouldn't put you off backing them at those odds.

The visitors have lost eight of their 14 away from home this term, and they have been poor travellers ever since they were promoted to the Premier League.

They are 5.90 to record just their third away success of the campaign, but that doesn't appeal at all, as only three teams have won at Molineux this year.

The draw is 4.10, which on certain stats does make some appeal. Wolves have shared the spoils in nearly 43% of their home games this term, and Brighton have drawn 10 of their 28 league fixtures.

Wolves drew a lot of matches earlier in the campaign though, and the majority of Brighton's draws came at the Amex.

In summary, it's hard not to like the home win at 1.69. However, given how Wolves have made some slow starts this season, it might be best to wait and bet in-play, once the odds have drifted. I wouldn't even be phased if they fell behind.

Side with goals at Molineux

The market is slightly favouring Under 2.5 when it comes to goals, as it is available to back at 1.92. The Over is 2.08.

When it comes to high-scoring games, Brighton are 16th in the rankings, but their matches are still averaging 2.57 goals each time. They key thing here though is that a dozen of their 28 have finished with exactly two goals, and only the same amount have seen Over 2.5 backers collect.

Wolves' average is a bit higher at the 2.68 mark. Again, though, the most common amount of goals in their matches is two - 11 of their 28 have ended with the ball in the net on exactly two occasions.

They have kept clean sheets in their last couple of outings in front of their own fans, but Brighton have only failed to score in one of their last 10 on their travels - of which, they won just one.

I think that we have to play the odds here, and Over 2.5 feels slightly generous, at the prices.