Derby v Manchester United: Rams to upset the odds

In what is being touted as the Wayne Rooney derby, Manchester United travel to Pride Park in the FA Cup and Paul Robinson says not to underestimate the hosts...

Derby v Man United
Thursday March 5, 19:45
Live on BT Sport

Rams looking for repeat cup success

Derby ended a four match winless run with a 3-1 victory at Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday, and while the play-offs are still a bit of a long-shot, if they can replicate their Hillsborough performance, anything is possible.

That includes a famous FA Cup victory over Manchester United. They have recent history with them, too, as Frank Lampard led them to a League Cup win at Old Trafford last term. They also ran United close in this competition nine months prior to that - eventually losing 2-0, with goals in the 84th and 90th minutes.

Phillip Cocu looks set to name his strongest side for this game, and that includes Wayne Rooney. England and Manchester United's all time leading goal-scorer. Of course he isn't the player he once was, but he has certainly improved this Derby team, and his big-match experience will be invaluable in this one.

Best chance of a trophy for Solskjær

Manchester United extended their unbeaten run to eight matches in all competitions at Everton on Sunday, and while they would have liked to have won, a draw away from home isn't a bad result.

Realistically, this is Ole Gunnar Solskjær's best chance of winning a trophy this season, as while they are also still in the Europa League, this would be an easier task.

That is why I feel that Solskjær will play a very strong side at Pride Park, despite the fact that they are set to face Manchester City on Sunday. Finishing in the top five is clearly important, but winning silverware is in United's DNA.

Oppose the favourites

One thing that stands out to me in the match-odds market is that the Premier League side are too short at 1.57 on the Betfair Exchange.

The Rams may only be 13th in the Championship, but only two teams have beaten them at home this season - Bristol City in August and Millwall in December.

So that begs the question - are either the draw or a home win worth backing at 4.40 or 6.80 respectively?

Breaking down the rest of their home results, they have won nine and drawn seven of their other 16 league matches, and they were also victorious in their only cup tie here this term.

United are five without defeat away from Old Trafford - three in the league and two in cups. The latter two of those were draws though, and it's just six victories from their last 15 on the road.

The best play is to probably lay United at 1.58 on the Exchange, so as long as they aren't winning at the end of 90 minutes, we are on to a near 2/1 winner. However I certainly wouldn't put you off taking a punt on the 6.80 about Derby.

Back goals at both ends

Goals are expected in this game, as Over 2.5 is trading at around the 1.74 mark, with Under 2.5 at 2.24.

There hasn't been a clean sheet for either side in any of Derby's last seven outings, with five of the seven ending with three goals or more.

United had kept a couple of clean sheets in the lead up to the Everton match on Sunday, and they have conceded just four goals in their last seven away from home - with two of those coming at Anfield.

I wouldn't be confident of steaming into Overs at these prices, but I do like the look of Both Teams to Score at 1.80.