Premier League Tips: A stats-based pick for every game this weekend

Sadio Mane has an excellent scoring record against Aston Villa and Dan Fitch thinks he will add to his tally, as he runs through the Premier League Opta Stats.



Chelsea defence provides opportunities

Chelsea 1.46 v Crystal Palace 8.60; The Draw 5.00
Saturday 3 October, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Chelsea have conceded at least three goals in four of their last 10 Premier League games, as many times as they had in their previous 56 matches in the competition."

The hosts have conceded in all three of their Premier League games this season and you can back both teams to score at 1.88.

Premier League top scorer will find net again

Everton 1.81 v Brighton 5.20; The Draw 3.90
Saturday 3 October, 15:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Everton's Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored in each of his three Premier League games this season, netting five goals in total. The last English player to score in four consecutive league games for the Toffees was Francis Jeffers in September 2000."

Calvert-Lewin added a hat-trick against West Ham to his total in the EFL Cup this week and looks big at 2.30 to score.

Fast start at Elland Road

Leeds 9.00 v Manchester City 1.38; The Draw 5.90
Saturday 3 October, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Manchester City lost 2-5 against Leicester last time out, shipping as many goals in that defeat as they had in their previous 11 league games combined."

This game surely cannot fail to provide entertainment and goals aplenty. Over 1.5 first-half goals is available at 2.10.

Saturday night's alright for sleeping

Newcastle 2.58 v Burnley 3.20; The Draw 3.30
Saturday 3 October, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Only goalless Sheffield United have a lower shot conversion rate than Burnley in the Premier League this season, with the Clarets netting just 7.7% of their attempts so far (2/26)."

With Newcastle also having struggled to score at times this season, the 0-0 half-time score looks a decent bet at 2.50.

Lively Leicester will take advantage against leaky Hammers

Leicester 1.68 v West Ham 5.40; The Draw 4.40
Sunday 4 October, 12:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Leicester are looking to win their first four games to a league season for the first time in their history. Their haul of 12 goals so far is the most after three games of a Premier League season since 2011-12 (Man Utd 13, Man City 12)."

West Ham were beaten 4-1 away at Everton in midweek and a Leicester win and over 2.5 goals can be backed at 2.40.

Ings loves an early goal

Southampton 1.80 v West Brom 4.90; The Draw 4.00
Sunday 4 October, 12:00
Live on BT Sport 2

"Since the start of last season, Southampton's Danny Ings has scored the opening goal in a league-high 12 Premier League games."

Ings has scored the opener in each of Southampton's last two games and is 3.60 to do so again.

Gunners to get off to another quick start

Arsenal 1.61 v Sheffield United 6.60; The Draw 4.10
Sunday 4 October, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"After losing all three of their home league games in December 2019, Arsenal are now unbeaten in their last 10 at the Emirates (W8 D2). Arsenal have only failed to score in three of their last 72 home league games, with all of those coming against Man City."

Arsenal have scored in the first-half of all three of their Premier League games this season and you can back them to win half-time/full-time at 2.60.

Wolves will tear through Fulham

Wolves 1.54 v Fulham 7.80; The Draw 4.40
Sunday 4 October, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

"Since January 2019, Fulham have conceded at least twice in 17 of their 21 Premier League games (W4 D0 L17). The Cottagers have conceded 3+ goals in each of their last four in the Premier League."

You can get odds of 2.60 for a Wolves win and over 2.5 goals, which has landed in all three of Fulham's defeats this season.

Goals will flow in weekend's big game

Manchester United 1.97 v Tottenham 4.20; The Draw 3.80
Sunday 4 October, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

"Tottenham have kept just two clean sheets in their last 27 Premier League away games, with both of those shutouts coming last season against teams who were eventually relegated (0-0 v Watford, 0-0 v Bournemouth)."

Manchester United have conceded in both of their two Premier League matches and both teams to score seems a safe bet at 1.74.

Mane has strong record against Villa

Aston Villa 10.50 v Liverpool 1.36; The Draw 5.70
Sunday 4 October, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

"Liverpool's Sadio Mané has scored six goals in his six Premier League games against Aston Villa, only scoring more against Crystal Palace (9) and Arsenal (7) in the competition. This includes the fastest ever Premier League hat-trick, which he scored for Southampton against the Villans in May 2015, with just 2 minutes and 56 seconds separating his three goals."

Mane has scored three goals in his last two Premier League appearances and is 2.10 to add to his tally.

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