Bundesliga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW3

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as the first managerial change of the season takes effect...

Union to climb away from danger zone

Union Berlin v Mainz
Friday, 19:30
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Two winless sides do battle in the capital on Friday night, and Mainz's thumping at home to Stuttgart will give hosts Union Berlin hope. Urs Fischer's side earned a point from this game last season despite playing more than half the game with 10 men, and can build on a good point at Borussia Mönchengladbach by taking all three at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.

Back the 2-1 @ 10.00

Dortmund to return to winning ways

Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg
Saturday, 14:30
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While Dortmund drew a blank at Augsburg last week, they created as many chances as their opponents but failed to get the breakthrough they needed. Lucien Favre will hope for better fortune back at Signal Iduna Park, where Infogol puts their chances of victory at 75%, but Freiburg have shown this season that they carry a real goal threat.

Back the 3-1 @ 11.50

Frankfurt to put a dent in Hoffenheim run

Eintracht Frankfurt v Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
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Both of these sides earned good wins last weekend, and both have had little trouble finding their shooting boots. Frankfurt's first task will be stopping in-form Hoffenheim striker Andrej Kramarić, but they have enough firepower themselves to be decent value for the 47% chance of victory given to them by Infogol's model.

Back the 2-1 @ 11.00

Gladbach to earn first win at out-of-sorts Köln

Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday, 14:30
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Köln can count themselves unlucky to have lost at Bielefeld last time out, with Jóan Símun Edmundsson scoring the only goal of the game from a ridiculous angle, but that kind of result can deflate a team - especially one on a long winless run. Gladbach may smell blood, and Infogol gives last season's fourth-place finishers a 51% chance of taking all three points in a game which they won 1-0 last season.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.60

Leverkusen to stay unbeaten with three points at Stuttgart

Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday, 14:30
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Stuttgart got the all-important first win of their Bundesliga return last week, emphatically getting the better of Mainz, but the visit of Leverkusen will be more challenging. Peter Bosz' side have started out with back-to-back draws, against tough opponents in Wolfsburg and Leipzig, and Infogol makes them favourites to get their first win of the season at the Mercedes-Benz Arena.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.80

Werder to blunt Bielefeld and go back-to-back

Werder Bremen v Arminia Bielefeld
Saturday, 14:30
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Werder Bremen's win at Schalke last week was enough to cost David Wagner his job, and Florian Kohfeldt's side can build on that result with a home game against an Arminia Bielefeld team adjusting well to life back in the top tier. The hosts' last three wins have been by 3-1, 6-1 and 5-1 scorelines, so while they're favourites to triumph, it's easy to see why Infogol's model anticipates goals at both ends.

Back the 2-1 @ 10.00

Schalke's misery to continue at Red Bull Arena

RB Leipzig v Schalke
Saturday, 17:30
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New Schalke manager Manuel Baum doesn't have an easy start, with his team travelling to face a Leipzig side who scored five in Gelsenkirchen back in January. The hosts are 71% to win, but Infogol's model suggests it will be closer-run than Schalke's last two defeats. If Baum is successful in keeping things relatively tight in the wake of that 8-0 loss at Bayern, it's easy to see things moving in the right direction, but a win first time out would be a big ask.

Back the 2-1 @ 10.00

Wolfsburg to bring Augsburg back down to earth

Wolfsburg v Augsburg
Sunday, 14:30
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Augsburg's victory over Borussia Dortmund was one of the shock results of gameweek two, and Heiko Herrlich's team didn't need a smash-and-grab to pull it off. That victory will give them hope of a similar result at the Volkswagen Arena, but Wolfsburg have been unfortunate not to earn a win so far this season and will want to follow their Europa League play-off by kick-starting their Bundesliga season.

Back the 2-1 @ 8.20

Bayern to bounce back after Hoffenheim horror

Bayern Munich v Hertha Berlin
Sunday, 17:00
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Bayern's 4-1 loss at Hoffenheim was as unexpected as it was deserved, with the home side good value for their victory, and Hansi Flick will demand a response from his team back at the Allianz Arena. Hertha Berlin could find themselves in the firing line after dropping points at home last week, and Bayern are 77% to win with Infogol.

Back the 3-1 @ 10.00

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