Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW4
Who will be this weekend's winners and losers in Serie A? Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions for a week headlined by the Milan derby...
Napoli to blunt leaders Atalanta
Napoli v Atalanta
Saturday, 14:00
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It will be hard for anyone to stop Atalanta, who have amassed more than seven xGF and 13 actual goals in their first three games. However, a Napoli side returning from a Covid-related controversy against Juventus certainly have the personnel and quality to cut down the league leaders. Infogol gives the hosts a 41% chance of victory at the San Paolo, with BTTS at a relatively high 57%.
Back the 2-1 @ 11.50
Inter to edge a close-run Milan derby
Inter Milan v AC Milan
Saturday, 17:00
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AC Milan are yet to concede a point or a goal so far this season, but that run could come to an end against their old rivals Inter. Antonio Conte's side may be able to call upon deadline day signing Matteo Darmian, but the bigger danger for the Rossoneri will be Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martínez, both of whom are coming off goalscoring turns in the international break. Inter are 54% favourites, but it looks like being a close game.
Lazio to return to winning ways after tough double-header
Sampdoria v Lazio
Saturday, 17:00
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Lazio created plenty at home to Inter and Atalanta in their last two games, but ultimately emerged with just one point to show for it all. They have a chance to set that right on the road against a Sampdoria side beaten by Benevento in their only game so far at Luigi Ferraris, and Infogol's model backs them to take all three points in a fixture which ended 3-0 to the away side last season.
Back the 1-2 @ 10.50
Juventus to earn another win on the road
Crotone v Juventus
Saturday, 19:45
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Juventus were made to fight for a point at the Olimpico in their last away game, but a trip to Crotone should be friendlier to the Bianconeri. Giovanni Stroppa's side have yet to get a point on the board, conceding 10 goals so far, and Infogol's model can't see anything other than a comfortable away win at Stadio Ezio Scida.
Bologna to stop runaway Sassuolo at Renato Dall'Ara
Bologna v Sassuolo
Sunday, 11:30
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Sassuolo have been productive in front of goal but shaky at the back, allowing more than 1.3 xGA per game, and Bologna have the tools to stop a side with back-to-back 4-1 wins going into this meeting. Siniša Mihajlović's men have a 4-1 win of their own at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, and can rebound from an unfortunate defeat at Benevento by getting revenge for last season's home defeat against the Neroverdi.
Fiorentina to have too much for Spezia
Spezia v Fiorentina
Sunday, 14:00
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Fiorentina gave a good account of themselves against Inter and Sampdoria in their last two outings, only to return empty-handed. They have a chance to put that disappointment behind them against a Spezia side who will need to be less open than in their first home game, in which they let Sassuolo beat goalkeeper Jeroen Zoet four times. Infogol makes Giuseppe Iachini's side 47% favourites to win, and have boosted their options with the addition of deadline day signing José Callejón.
Torino to get their first win at the fourth time of asking
Torino v Cagliari
Sunday, 14:00
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Torino have had a tough start to the season, going down to deserved defeats against both Atalanta and Fiorentina, but Marco Giampaolo has a chance to kick-start his team's season at home to Cagliari. Their visitors are also winless, and also have a humbling by Atalanta in their rear-view mirror, and Infogol gives Il Toro a 51% chance of taking all three points from a fixture which ended all-square last term.
Udinese to get their first points on the board
Udinese v Parma
Sunday, 17:00
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After fending off interest in Rodrigo de Paul, Udinese will be keen to focus on their football and finally record a win after beginning the season with three defeats despite dominating the xG figures in every game. They welcome a Parma side who won at Friuli last season, but will hope the added firepower of the likes of Roberto Pereyra, back for a second spell in Udine, can help them pick up all three points.
Back the 2-0 @ 3.65
Roma to leapfrog Benevento with home win
Roma v Benevento
Sunday, 19:45
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Roma have been left playing catch-up after their opening weekend forfeit, but three points at home to Benevento - a game for which Infogol makes the Giallorossi heavy favourites - will allow them to book-end the international break with maximum points. Chris Smalling is back at the Olimpico for good after his deadline day move, and may be called upon to stand in the way of a visiting side who create plenty but also leave themselves exposed at times.
Verona to ride home advantage to three points against Genoa
Verona v Genoa
Monday, 19:45
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Verona have rode their luck to sit on six points, but Infogol's model anticipates a more straightforward home win for Ivan Jurić's men against a Genoa side who will be hopeful their players can rebound quickly from the Covid outbreak which saw their clash against Torino postponed before the international break. The Gialloblu came from behind to win this game 2-1 last season, but could find things even more straightforward this time around.
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