Aston Villa v Burnley: Clarets to exploit Villa's poor home form

With just one loss in their last five in the Premier League, Sean Dyche's Burnley appear to have turned the corner and they're worth chancing at Villa Park on Thursday...

Aston Villa v Burnley
Thursday December 17, 18:00
Live on Amazon Prime Video

Villans looking to stop the rot at home

Aston Villa host Burnley on Thursday night, just five days after their hard fought 1-0 victory over local rivals Wolves at Molineux, who would have felt slightly aggrieved when an injury time Anwar Ghazi penalty secured all three points for the visitors.

In what was a tight affair, Wolves had looked the more likely winners as the second half wore on but the star of the show, as he so often tries to be, was the referee Mike Dean, who managed to book nine and send off two. And as a result, Matty Cash, who was shown his fifth yellow of the season on Saturday, and Douglas Luiz, who was sent off in the 85th minute, will both be missing from Dean Smith's line-up.

The Villans have been on something of a roll on the road and the Wolves win was their fourth away win this season. The only time they've played away and not picked up all three points was when they lost 2-1 to West Ham in their penultimate match but it's been a different story at Villa Park...

Since edging out bottom club Sheffield United 1-0 at the very start of the season, and after their 7-2 thrashing of the champions, Liverpool, at the start of October, Villa have played three times at home and they've lost all three.

A 3-0 whipping by Leeds was followed by a 4-3 defeat by Southampton and 2-1 loss to Brighton at home so they're clearly happier away from Villa Park.

Have the Clarets turned the corner?

Burnley's start to the season was so poor that that they've been matched at odds-on to be relegated and they're still only trading at less than 6/4.

The Clarets lost five of their first six with a drab 0-0 draw away at West Brom the only highlight but Sean Dyche's men have turned it around of late and since losing at home to in-form Spurs 1-0 and Chelsea 3-0, they've lost only one of their last five but that result was far from a shock.

Burnley's record at Manchester City has been awful of late and their 5-0 defeat at the Etihad at the end of last month was their fourth such loss in-a-row there. With the Clarets having such a poor record there that's a result not to dwell on and I'm sure that's what Dyche's message would have been.

Prior to that result, Burnley earned a point away at Brighton, courtesy on a 0-0 draw, and they beat Crystal Palace 1-0 at home, and in their two subsequent Premier League starts they've drawn 1-1 at home with Everton and beaten Arsenal away - climbing out of the bottom three as a result.

Arsenal have been quite rightly pilloried after Sunday's defeat - their third in-a-row - and having Granit Xhaka sent off in the 56th minute certainly didn't help the Gunners but the Clarets have definitely turned a corner and they're the value play in the outright market at 5.0.

Play it safe with the money back option

Odds-on for Over in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market makes sense given there have been at least three goals scored in 80% of Villa's home games this season and in half of Burnley's away matches. The Villans have conceded at least two in each of their last four at home and Over has landed in each of those four games but I'm not convinced we'll get another goal-fest at Villa Park given Burnley have kept clean sheets in three of their last five.

Recent history between these two teams points firmly to Yes in the Both Teams to Score market at odds-on given both sides have found the net in nine of their last 11 encounters in all competitions, but the seasonal stats aren't so conclusive.

Both teams have scored in 60% of Villa's home games but in only 33% of Burnley's away matches. Given the season is so young, it's worth looking at last season's figures but they tell a very similar story. Both teams scored in 53% of Villa's home matches but in only 37% of Burnley's away games.

In the To Score marketChris Wood looks a sensible option given he's found the net in each of his three league starts against Aston Villa - in both games for Burnley last season and for Leeds back in December 2016 - but it's the Draw No Bet market that I like.

Dyche has shored up the defence nicely of late and the Clarets are proving much harder to beat. Burnley are a tempting price in the win market at 5.0 but the safer option is to play them in the Draw no Bet market at 3.8.




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