Leeds v Newcastle: Goals to be at a premium

Leeds v Newcastle: Goals to be at a premium

Leeds have failed to deliver at Elland Road this season and Paul Robinson expects them to misfire again when Newcastle come to town.

Leeds v Newcastle
Wednesday 16 December, 18:00
Live on Amazon Prime

Leeds facing a season defining festive period

It was a big night for Leeds last Friday as they hosted West Ham in a match that the bookies had them priced up as favourites. Things started well as they took the lead early on via the penalty spot, but for the Hammers ran out 2-1 winners, and the visitors were value for much more.

Marcelo Bielsa's men haven't been talked about as relegation candidates, but they haven't delivered with any real consistency yet, and their home form is starting to become a concern.

Since their 4-3 victory over Fulham, it's been a two point return from five matches, and while their list of opponents has been above average, the lack of goals is an issue.

Despite the above, I again wouldn't expect Bielsa to make too many changes to his starting XI, but we won't know in advance, as he changed his policy on naming his team in advance.

Bruce delivering results but it isn't pretty

Despite a whole wrath of players missing, Newcastle returned to action with a win over West Brom on Saturday. Steve Bruce was without three of his first choice back four, as well as the enigmatic, Allan Saint-Maximin, among others.

The manager has come in for plenty of criticism for his style of play, but the fact is, what he is doing is working. The Magpies have 17 points from their 11 outings, and that is three more than Leeds, from one game fewer.

Federico Fernandez is back in training for Newcastle, which is a huge plus given that he is arguably their best defender. Dwight Gayle is also pushing for a starting place after coming off the bench to score the winner against the Baggies.

Oppose the hosts again

The Betfair layers are putting their faith in Leeds once again, as despite being beaten - and outclassed - against West Ham, they are even shorter to beat Newcastle on Wednesday.

The Whites are odds-on at 1.83 on the Betfair Exchange, and that is far too short for me. It's nigh on three months since they last won at Elland Road, and it's just one win in their last six, home or away.

The visitors have had a days less rest, but they should still be fresher after having the weekend off prior to that. They have won three of their last five games, and on the road it's four positive results from five this term.

An away win is available to back at 4.7, but I am actually much more interested in the draw at a slightly shorter 4.1.

Draw backers would have collected in two of Newcastle's last four away from St James' Park, and the same can be said for two of Leeds' last five at Elland Road.

Don't expect lots of goals

When it comes to goals, I am once again taking the opposite opinion to the Betfair Exchange, as I much prefer Under 2.5 at around the 2.2 mark, compared to the Over at 1.74.

All five of Newcastle's away games have finished with two goals or fewer, and Leeds have scored just three goals across their last five on this ground.

I see no reason to believe that anything will change on Wednesday and I will be taking a strong financial position on Under 2.5 Goals at anything above even money.

Same Game Multi

Given my bullishness about Under 2.5 Goals, it's the first selection in my Same Game Multi on the Sportsbook.

My second pick is Under 9.5 Corners. Newcastle have had fewer corners than any other Premier League team this season, and although Leeds are much higher in the rankings in that regard, their corner count has dropped off recently.

If you chuck in Callum Wilson to have 1+ Shot on Target, you get a bet that works out at 10.44.

Key Opta Stat

Newcastle have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League games in Yorkshire (W9 D3), losing 0-1 at Huddersfield in August 2017.