Bundesliga Betting: Get set for tasty Topspiel

Bundesliga Betting: Get set for tasty Topspiel

It's the final Bundesliga matchday of 2020, and Kevin Hatchard has four more picks.

Title contenders to strike sparks

Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich
Saturday 19 December, 17:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video

It's been a surprisingly impressive start to the season for Peter Bosz's Bayer Leverkusen. Despite losing star player Kai Havertz and captain Kevin Volland in the summer, Die Werkself have made an unbeaten, table-topping start to the league season. They were in breath-taking form in midweek, and they scored some gorgeous goals in a 4-0 drubbing of neighbours Köln.

However, the acid test comes on Saturday evening in the "Topspiel" (top game) against a Bayern team that wiped the floor with them in last season's DFB Cup final (4-2) and Bundesliga game at the BayArena (3-1). Yes, Bosz's men secured a 2-1 win at the Allianz Arena, but anyone who watched that game would tell you that Bayern dominated that game and missed a hatful of chances.

Although this is a rare opportunity to back the champions of Europe at 1.83 to win a league game, I can't quite bring myself to take that angle. There is unquestionably a fragility to Bayern at the moment, and they are surviving games at the moment instead of strolling through them, largely because of a punishing schedule.

I'll swerve the Match Odds market, and go for Over 3.5 Goals instead at 19/20 on the Sportsbook. That bet has landed in five of the clubs' last six competitive meetings, and it's worth considering that Bayern have already leaked 18 goals in their first 12 league games. Bayer have the firepower to make plenty of chances, but I expect Thomas Müller, Robert Lewandowski and the in-form Kingsley Coman to have a say too.

Billy Goats to be trampled by charging Red Bulls

RB Leipzig v FC Köln
Saturday 19 December, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

RB Leipzig are still very much in the title mix after a hard-fought 1-0 win at Hoffenheim in midweek. Julian Nagelsmann's side found it tough in the first half against his old club, as Hoffenheim's Sebastian Hoeness came up with a clever tactical scheme. However, Die Roten Bullen showed patience, and Yussuf Poulsen fired in a second-half winner.

Leipzig have enjoyed their home comforts this term, winning all nine of their competitive matches at the Red Bull Arena. Five of those nine wins have been by two goals or more, including victories against bottom-half sides Mainz, Werder Bremen, Schalke and Freiburg.

Köln were humiliated in a Rhineland derby on Wednesday, as Bayer Leverkusen swatted them 4-0, and it's difficult to see them finding a way to restrict Leipzig here. They lost home and away against them last term, 4-2 and 4-1, and both of those scorelines would've landed my recommendation, which is to back Leipzig -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.9.

Failing Frankfurt should be opposed

Augsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday 19 December, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Frankfurt well and truly blew it in midweek, as they deservedly and spectacularly built a 3-1 lead against Borussia Mönchengladbach (there were some truly beautiful goals from Andre Silva and Aymane Barkok), but then David Abraham got himself sent off, Barkok conceded a needless penalty and Gladbach skipper Lars Stindl completed a hat-trick with virtually the final touch of the game. The Eagles have now gone nine league matches without a win, their worst ever run under coach Adi Hütter.

Augsburg have shown their gritty side of late. They snatched a point with a last-gasp equaliser against Schalke last weekend, and in midweek Dutch defender Jeffrey Gouweleeuw scored a stylish 85th-minute winner. They have lost just two of their last seven Bundesliga matches, and at home they have lost just one of the last four.

Frankfurt will be without the suspended Abraham, they haven't won any of their last five away games, and Augsburg are a difficult side to knock over. I can't understand why the Eagles are trading at evens, so let's get the home win and the draw into our portfolio by laying the visitors.

Improving Hertha to sign off 2020 in style

Freiburg v Hertha Berlin
Sunday 20 December, 14:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video

It's been a very strange season for Hertha Berlin, but after conceding an avalanche of goals, it appears Bruno Labbadia is finally starting to stem the bleeding. Hertha have conceded just two goals in their last four games, and they are unbeaten in that spell. Away from home, they have kept two clean sheets in their last three games, and have claimed five points.

Freiburg have only won once at home, and although they played well in Wednesday's victory at rock-bottom Schalke, beating the rock-bottom Royal Blues these days is hardly a stamp of quality. Although the Black Forest outfit are likely to stay up again this year, they aren't quite as cohesive as usual. Usually-reliable midfield warrior Nicolas Höfler is making a slew of errors, and big-money signing Baptiste Santamaria hasn't quite settled yet. In goal, Florian Müller appears to be a downgrade on predecessor Alexander Schwolow, who is now playing for Hertha.

I'll back the visitors here +0 on the Asian Handicap market.