La Liga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW12

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as the champions aim to end their losing run...

Celta to stay in trouble with Athletic reverse

Athletic Bilbao v Celta Vigo
Friday, 20:00
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Celta Vigo picked up a valuable three points against Granada last weekend, but remain in the bottom three. They may well stay there, owing to a tough trip to face an Athletic side with the best xGA record in La Liga, averaging just 0.83 xGA per game and having enough going forward to cause problems for Eduardo Coudet's men.

Back the 2-0 @ 12.00

Levante's winless run to continue

Levante v Getafe
Saturday, 13:00
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Both of these teams are out of form, with neither picking up a win since 17 October, and the equivalent game last season was goalless until deep into stoppage time. Levante won on that occasion, with Coke's goal the difference, but Infogol's model gives the visitors a slight edge this time thanks to their relative defensive strength.

Back the 0-2 @ 12.50

Madrid to avoid a third straight defeat

Sevilla v Real Madrid
Saturday, 15:15
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Real Madrid's Champions League hopes are in the balance after a midweek defeat in Ukraine, and another defeat - after last weekend's loss at home to Alavés - would be extremely worrying for Zinedine Zidane. Los Blancos will drop below Sevilla with a defeat, but Infogol backs the title-holders to rebound from their recent setbacks.

Back the 0-2 @ 15.00

Atlético to earn boost ahead of crucial European tie

Atlético Madrid v Real Valladolid
Saturday, 17:30
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A late Bayern Munich equaliser on Tuesday means Atlético Madrid still have work to do in the Champions League, so they'll be grateful to be taking on lowly Valladolid before a crunch game in Salzburg. Sergio González's visitors are still down in 17th despite a recent upturn in results, and their average of just 1.09 xGF per game helps explain Infogol's model anticipating another low-scoring affair after Atléti won this fixture 1-0 in June.

Back the 2-0 @ 5.90

Barcelona to continue climb up the table

Cádiz v Barcelona
Saturday, 20:00
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Cádiz have often made it difficult for sides near the top of the table, which is why they're ahead of Barcelona going into this game, but Ronald Koeman's men appear to be finding some fluidity. The Catalan side put four past Osasuna last weekend, and should have the defensive nous to silence opponents who have averaged just 0.41 xGF across their last three La Liga outings.

Back the 0-2 @ 7.40

Granada to use their home advantage against Huesca

Granada v Huesca

Sunday, 13:00
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A home meeting with bottom side Huesca is just what Granada need to rebound from three straight league defeats. Diego Martínez's side allowed an almost unheard of 5.01 xGA in their defeat in Vigo last week, so we shouldn't expect a shutout, but the arrival of winless opponents should give them the motivation they need to go into their final Europa League game with a win behind them.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.80

Osasuna to win battle of out-of-form sides

Osasuna v Real Betis
Sunday, 15:15
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Osasuna and Betis are coming into this game with one win apiece from their last six games, with little in the xG numbers to suggest this isn't a fair reflection of their form. Jagoba Arrasate's men have been slightly less bad, and have home advantage, though it remains to be seen how much they've been deflated by a defeat at Camp Nou which was more even than the 4-0 scoreline suggests.

Back the 2-1 @ 17/2

Villarreal to claim comfortable home victory

Villarreal v Elche
Sunday, 17:30
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Villarreal are unbeaten in eight in La Liga, and should have the tools to make it nine against surprise package Elche. Jorge Almirón's visitors have the lowest xGF in the division, but have shown an ability to score even when they create little, so the 65% chance of victory given to the hosts by Infogol's model might not translate into a win to nil.

Back the 2-1 @ 13/2

La Real to cling onto top spot

Alavés v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 20:00
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Real Sociedad's lead at the top was cut to one point last weekend, as they exchanged first-half penalties with Villarreal, but they can stay at the summit with victory at Mendizorrotza. Alavés won the corresponding game last season, and go into this fixture with a five-game unbeaten run after holding on away to Real Madrid, but Infogol backs the visitors to take the points ahead of their big Europa League game away to Napoli.

Back the 0-2 @ 8.00

Eibar to climb into top half

Eibar v Valencia
Monday, 20:00
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Eibar are unbeaten in their last three, having put in a dominant display at Real Betis last time out, and can climb up the table with a victory in Monday evening's game. Opponents Valencia continued their inconsistent season with a home loss against Atlético Madrid in which they registered just three shots, and a repeat of last season's narrow home win could well be on the cards with Infogol offering just a 43% chance of more than 2.5 goals.

Back the 2-0 @ 12.50

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