Lokomotiv v Red Bull Salzburg: Big odds for draw

Dan Fitch can't see why Red Bull Salzburg are such big favourites against Lokomotiv and recommends backing the draw.

Lokomotiv 5.2 v Red Bull Salzburg 1.66; The Draw 4.5
Tuesday 1 December, 17:55
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Lokomotiv and Red Bull Salzburg remain in contention

Qualification for the last-16 of the Champions League remains very open in Group A, with Lokomotiv and Red Bull Salzburg both still in with a chance of finishing above second placed Atletico Madrid.

Lokomotiv are third and only two points behind Atletico Madrid. In their last outing they claimed a valuable away point at Atletico, as they held on for a 0-0 draw.

The Russians have yet to win a match in the Champions League this season (P4 W0 D3 L1) and this looks like their best opportunity, with Lokomotiv facing Bayern Munich in their final game. A lack of firepower could be an obstacle. Lokomotiv drew 0-0 again at the weekend when they travelled to Akhmat Grozny and have not scored more than one in a match, in any of their last eight games (W1 D3 L4).

Salzburg will need to beat Lokomotiv and then Atletico in their final game if they are to reach the knockout stages. So far they have only claimed one point in the competition, having drawn the reverse fixture 2-2.

Values lies with draw

Red Bull Salzburg are a very short price at 1.66 to win this one. It's hard to see why this is the case considering they could only draw against Lokomotiv at home. Lokomotiv are finding wins difficult to come by, but they are not losing many, with three of their last five games ending in draws (W1 L1).

The odds of 4.5 for another drawn game are generous and at the very least should provide a trading opportunity. Even when Lokomotiv lose it's normally by slim margins, with six of their seven defeats this season coming by a single goal.

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