La Liga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW27

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions ahead of derbies in Valencia and Seville...

Levante to claim derby victory

Levante v Valencia
Friday, 20:00
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Back-to-back defeats have left Levante in the no-man's-land of mid-table, but they're unlikely to struggle for motivation against neighbours Valencia. Javi Gracia's visitors have eased their relegation worries with wins in their last three home games, but away from the Mestalla it's a different story with an average of 1.46 xGA all season long and just 0.49 xGF per game across their last three on the road.

Back the 2-1 @ 10.00

Alavés to earn crucial win in relegation fight

Alavés v Cádiz
Saturday, 13:00
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With just 12 games left in the season, Alavés need every point they can get to clamber out of the bottom three. A home meeting with Cádiz will be one of the fixtures earmarked by Abelardo as a potential for three points, despite the visitors coming off a win in their last outing, and Alavés were holding their own in the reverse fixture until Tachi's red card swung the tie in the favour of the newly promoted side.

Back the 2-0 @ 9.40

Real Madrid to punish poor travellers Elche

Real Madrid v Elche
Saturday, 15:15
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Elche's 0.67 xGF away from home makes them comfortably the worst in that metric in La Liga, and a trip to the capital is unlikely to see that change. Real Madrid remain in faint title contention following their derby draw last weekend, and a record of 1.08 xGA per game on home soil - coupled with plenty of attacking riches - means Infogol expects the hosts to be comfortable on Saturday.

Back the 3-0 @ 7.40

Osasuna to continue to pull away from danger

Osasuna v Real Valladolid
Saturday, 17:30
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Osasuna could find themselves nine points clear of the drop come Monday, which would be some achievement after their lethargic start to the season. Jagoba Arrasate's team have won three of their last four, and were unfortunate to lose to Barcelona last time out, so it's no surprise to learn Infogol's model likes their chances at home to a Valladolid side averaging just 0.8 xGF per game away from home.

Back the 2-0 @ 10.00

Atléti to escape the Coliseum with three points

Getafe v Atlético Madrid
Saturday, 20:00
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Getafe's Coliseum is often a tough place to visit, but Atlético Madrid survived their experience at the end of last season and the league leaders are favoured to repeat the trick on Saturday night. The reverse fixture ended 1-0 to Diego Simeone's men, and a meeting between the league's worst home xGF and second-best away xGA records points to a win for the visitors in a low-scoring game.

Back the 0-2 @ 8.40


Celta to pick up back-to-back wins

Celta Vigo v Athletic Bilbao
Sunday, 13:00
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Celta might have ridden their luck to win at Huesca last weekend, but it has largely been a different story at home where a return of 1.96 xGF per game is better than the likes of high-flying Real Madrid and Sevilla. Athletic haven't had a great time of it on the road this season, and Infogol's model backs the home side to triumph and complete a league double after December's win at San Mamés.

Back the 2-0 @ 12.00

La Real to sneak a win in Granada

Granada v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 15:15
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Granada's home points tally is a little deceptive on the basis of their xG record this season, but things are still unlikely to be easy for in-form visitors Real Sociedad. Imanol Alguacil's men have the league's best xGA record, with only Barcelona besting them in xGF terms, but any hope of a top four finish relies on wins in games like this where Infogol gives them a 57% chance of supplementing the 2-0 win they recorded over Diego Martínez's men at Anoeta before the turn of the year.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.80

Villarreal to bounce back after successive defeats

Eibar v Villarreal
Sunday, 17:30
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Villarreal were left ruing missed chances after letting Valencia mount a late comeback last week, and that 2-1 loss all but ended their chances of a top four run. Nonetheless, Unai Emery's team are still in a position to see off Eibar, whose own profligacy on home soil has seen them turn an expected goal difference of +4 into an actual one of -7. Infogol can see this going either way, narrowly favouring the visitors, and such a result would leave the home side in the bottom three.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.80

Sevilla to recover domestic form after European exit

Sevilla v Real Betis
Sunday, 20:00
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A late rally wasn't enough for Sevilla to avoid Champions League heartbreak against Borussia Dortmund, and Julen Lopetegui's team now need to reenergise for a derby on Sunday evening. Real Betis are coming off four straight wins, averaging 0.71 xGA per game in the process, but a stingy home defence can - per Infogol's model - prevent the visitors closing the gap between the sides to three points.

Back the 2-0 @ 9.60

Barcelona to keep up unlikely title push

Barcelona v Huesca
Monday, 20:00
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After bowing out of Europe - albeit with a respectable display in Paris - Barcelona can stay in touch with league-leaders Atlético Madrid as they entertain bottom-of-the-table Huesca at Camp Nou. Frenkie de Jong's winner at El Alcoraz was the start of Barça's current run of 10 wins in 11, and infogol backs Ronald Koeman's side to take the points against visitors who will remain in deep trouble with a defeat.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.00

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