Leeds v Chelsea: Tuchel's well-drilled Blues can triumph again

Chelsea are flying under new boss Thomas Tuchel and they can take victory over Leeds at Elland Road on Saturday, says Dave Tindall...

First goal crucial in Leeds games

Leeds would surely have settled for a haul of 35 points from 27 games in their first season back in the Premier League for 16 years.

United's pretty healthy tally puts them 11th in the table going into Saturday's early kick-off. That's one place below Arsenal and one above Wolves.

Watching Marcelo Bielsa's side is hugely entertaining although it's becoming ever clearer to tell how their matches are going to unfold.

The Whites score first and it's good Leeds. They'll probably go on and win. That's been the case in five of their their last six victories.

But when Leeds concede first, it's pretty much game over. The West Yorkshire side have lost their last nine games in all competitions when letting in the opening goal.

In six of those, they've not even managed to find the net so the narrative that "anything could happen" is misleading. They play that way but there's high predictability in what the result will be.

Leeds are binary. They either win or they lose. Their last draw came back in November.

Chelsea flourishing under Tuchel

Chelsea's story this season is also based around the idea of predictability/unpredictability.

Under Frank Lampard the London outfit clearly did some good things but, too often, they'd mess up.

The Blues' hierarchy wanted something much more consistent and they've certainly found that under new boss Thomas Tuchel. He was clearly touted as an excellent manager but the German has surely surpassed all early expectations.

Rather than the sign of less entertaining things to come, the drab opening 0-0 draw against Wolves now looks like a base camp from which Chelsea would climb.

Switching to three at the back has suited his players and suddenly the Blues are almost impossible to score against. They've conceded just twice in Tuchel's first 11 games, are unbeaten, and have now won eight of the last 10 after back-to-back wins over Liverpool and Everton.

From appearing somewhat lightweight, Chelsea are now looking by far the safest bet for a Champions League spot of all the teams hovering around fourth.

It's shown in the betting. They were odds against before winning at Anfield but the Blues are now just 1.33 for a top-four finish.

Points-wise, they're four behind Manchester United in second and three back from third-placed Leicester. It would be no surprise if they reel in both.

Chelsea fancied for the win but correct scoreline appeals more

Leeds have a home record of won five, drawn two, lost six - exactly the same as sixth-placed Everton if you want a point of reference.

That includes two wins in the last three: a 2-0 success over Crystal Palace and a 3-0 victory against Southampton. That mini-run came to an end when Bielsa's men lost 1-0 to Aston Villa.

Leeds are 4.8 to win again while The Draw - Leeds don't do draws! - is 4.1.

Chelsea's away form under Tuchel is even more impressive than their overall results. They've won five of six, their half-dozen scorelines reading: 1-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 and 1-0.

Chelsea win is 1.79 while their new favourite score of 1-0 is 9.4.

Leeds have suffered three 1-0 home defeats this season and Chelsea, under Tuchel, are very adept at managing games and seeing out the win. The visitors to win by the only goal has got to be worth at bet at those odds.

Unders the smarter play in goals market

Commentators often throw out lines such as "this could be 7-6" when Leeds play. Of course, it never is.

But the repeated idea that it's goal crazy whenever Leeds are in action results in inflated goal quotes.

The truth is in the actual numbers and they show that Under 2.5 has landed in four of Leeds' last six matches and also in four of the last six at Elland Road.

Chelsea are certainly turning out to be an Unders team and each of their last seven games have witnessed under three goals. Overall in Tuchel's reign Unders backers have collected in 10 of 11.

In which case Unders is simply too big at 2.16.

Numbers beat perception.

Mount the man in Same Game Multi

Mason Mount was left out of Tuchel's first starting XI but he's become a key part of their rise up the table - especially on the road.

The England star has scored in each of Chelsea's last three Premier League away games and in four of the last five.

That makes him a decent punt at 11/4 to find the net and combining that with a Chelsea win takes us to approximately 5.0 on the Same Game Multi.

If I have got it all wrong with the goal count, Mount scoring in a 4-3 Chelsea win would still do just fine.

Opta Stat

Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel is unbeaten in his nine Premier League games so far - only Maurizio Sarri (12) and Frank Clark (11) have had longer runs without defeat from the start of their Premier League careers.

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