Southampton v Leeds: In-form Whites a value bet for another win

Southampton v Leeds: In-form Whites a value bet for another win

Southampton host Leeds on Tuesday evening and something has to give as both sides look to win their third Premier League game in-a-row...

Saints in search of their third straight win

Ralph Hasenhuttl's Southampton could have been forgiven if they finished the season limply after the disappointment of their FA Cup semi-final defeat to Saturday's winners, Leicester, but after losing 2-1 away at Spurs, courtesy of a 90th minute penalty four days after their 1-0 defeat to the Foxes, they've lost just one of their last four Premier League matches and they've won their last two.

Back-to-back 3-1 victories against Crystal Palace and Fulham in their last two games was the fillip the Saints badly needed. It's the first time Southampton have bagged three or more goals in consecutive games since December 2018 and the performance of 21-year-old striker, Nathan Tella, who scored his first goal in only his sixth appearance, was a big plus too.

Prior to their victory against Fulham, the Saints hadn't registered back-to-back wins since December, and they'd earned fewer points (14) and conceded more goals (43) than any other side in the Premier league in 2021. They've won a couple of games but I'm not convinced we can get carried away.

Palace are an inconsistent and often disappointing outfit and relegated Fulham have now lost eight of their last nine.

In-form Leeds finishing the season strong

Like the hosts, Leeds have also won their last two games, but their overall form is far stronger, and they've lost just one of their last nine in the Premier League.

Since losing at West Ham at the beginning of March, The Whites have drawn at home with top-four candidates Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United and they've beaten the champions, Manchester City, away.

Defeat to Brighton away on May 1 is their only disappointing result in more than two months and they bounced back immediately with a comfortable 3-1 win at home to Spurs and a 4-0 victory away at Burnley on Saturday.

Yet to draw on the road, Leeds have won nine and lost nine of their 18 Premier League away games to date. In addition to winning at the Etihad, they've also taken all three points at Leicester and Everton, but the bulk of their haul has come against teams below them in the league.

Now up into the top half of the table, Marcelo Bielsa's boys have won six of the nine away games played against the opposition currently below them in the table.

Visitors value to win away again

Both managers have a reputation for making their teams work hard so it's no surprise to see neither side slacking off as the season draws to a close and we could get quite an entertaining spectacle for what's effectively a dead rubber.

Looking at the side markets, Over 2.5 Goals in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market and Yes in the Both Teams to Score market are both long odds-on and so they should be.

Half of Southampton's games, both home and away, have produced three or more goals and there have been at least three scored in 72% of Leeds' away games. And since keeping three clean sheets in-a-row just after Christmas, bottom club, Sheffield United, are the only club Southampton have managed to keep from scoring in 19 games in the Premier League. The chances of the Saints stopping Leeds from finding the net on Tuesday are slim.

Looking at the Both Teams to Score stats, both teams have found the net in 56% of Southampton home matches this season and in only 50% of Leeds' away games so there might be a little bit of value in No at almost 2/1 in the Both Teams to Score market but having seen how porous the Saints are, Leeds to win to nil at 6.0 makes much more appeal.

Leeds won the reverse fixture 3-0, they have a fantastic away record, especially against teams below them in the table, and pound for pound they're much the better side than Southampton.

The 2.5 available about the visitors leaving St Mary's with all three points looks more than fair and the 6.0 about them doing so without conceding is the icing on the cake.