Brazil v Ecuador: Low scoring win for hosts

With Brazil having won Group B, Dan Fitch thinks that Tite will shuffle his pack and that his side will enjoy a relatively narrow win over Ecuador...

Brazil have already done the hard work

Brazil go into their last game of the Copa America, already secure that they will win Group B.

With a quarter-final match to come next Friday that could be against one of the likes of Chile or Uruguay, Tite may well choose to heavily rotate in this match, in order to give his star performers rest and to lessen the likelihood of injuries. Such has been the ease with which Brazil have won the group, claiming victory in all three games, that Tite has already been able to rotate throughout the tournament.

Their most recent victory was their most difficult and showed that while Brazil are clearly the best team in this tournament, they are capable of being beaten. They were 1-0 down to Colombia within ten minutes and though Brazil dominated possession, it took till the 78th minute before the substitute Roberto Firmino equalised. Brazil's winner came in the tenth minute of injury time, when Casemiro headed home Neymar's corner.

Ecuador battling to avoid elimination

Ecuador's current position of fourth in Group B is at risk, as they prepare to face the tournament favourites.

After three games they are fourth (D2 L1), with seemingly little chance of adding to their points total. Bottom placed Venezuela also have two points and now need a positive result against Peru to leapfrog Ecuador. Currently, Ecuador have a goal difference of -1, with Venezuela's at -3, so even if they lose to Brazil, limiting the extent of any defeat is important.

Considering that Venezuela and Peru have both scored two goals against them in their last two outings, it would appear difficult for Ecuador to keep the score respectable, even with the potential for Brazil to rotate and relax a little. However, when the two sides met in World Cup qualifying at the start of June, Brazil could only beat Ecuador 2-0 at home.

Take a chance on Ecuador keeping it tight

Brazil are the 1.4 favourites to win, with the draw at 4.9 and Ecuador out at 10.0.

The goal that Brazil conceded in their last match against Colombia, was the first that they had let in during this tournament. You can back Brazil to win to nil at 2.2, which landed when these sides last met.

Another bet that was successful in that match was a Brazil win and under 2.5 goals, which on this occasion is available at 3.5. It's a risk, but a calculated one, given that Ecuador will be motivated to keep the scoreline respectable and Brazil are bound to make changes, having already done the hard work to win the group.

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