Ecuador v Peru: Outsiders look value in entertaining game

Ecuador v Peru: Outsiders look value in entertaining game

Dan Fitch thinks Peru are a big price against Ecuador, in a game in which he's expecting to see goals from both teams.

Ecuador let victory slip

Ecuador picked up their first points in the 2021 Copa America on Sunday with a draw against Venezuela.

Though the point could prove to be valuable in a format that sees four of the five teams from Group B qualify for the knockout stages of the tournament, it will feel like two lost for Ecuador. They were twice ahead in a 2-2 draw, with Venezuela equalising for the second occasion in injury time.

With a match against Brazil to come in the final group game, this perhaps represents the last opportunity for Ecuador to win a match. Yet they lost 2-1 at home to Peru when the teams last met at the start of the month and with Ecuador having now gone four games without a win (D1 L3), their standards really need to improve.

Peru pick up unexpected three points

Peru pulled off a surprise win in their last outing, beating Colombia 2-1 to take a huge step towards qualifying for the quarter-finals of the tournament.

With Peru bottom of the South American section of the World Cup qualifiers and having been thrashed 4-0 by Brazil, there was little reason to be positive for their chances against Colombia, who had beaten them 3-0 in a World Cup qualifier at the start of June.

Sergio Pena gave Peru the lead and though the momentum looked to be swinging towards Colombia when Miguel Borga equalised through a penalty in the second-half, it did not take Peru long to go back ahead, with Yerry Mina scoring an own goal. After a period of poor form, Peru have now won two of their last three games (L1) and with one of those victories coming against Ecuador, they will be confident of qualification.

Peru big price, while goals will flow

Ecuador are the 2.34 favourites to win, with the draw at 3.2 and Peru at 3.4.

Considering Peru's upturn in form, the value very much seems to be with the underdogs. Peru are 2.4 in the Draw No Bet market, which is a big price against a team they beat just three weeks ago. Should you want to be a little more cautious, you can back Peru in the Double Chance market at 1.66.

A very safe bet looks to be for both teams to score at 2.0. Ecuador have conceded in each of their last ten games, while Peru have done likewise in each of their last 11.