Switzerland v Turkey: Last chance saloon for both nations

Switzerland v Turkey: Last chance saloon for both nations

Dave Farrar previews the desperate final throw of the dice for the disappointing Switzerland and Turkey...

Turkey a huge disappointment

Two sides who I certainly expected to battle for second place in the Group face a game in Baku in which they must try and remain relevant in Euro 2020.

Switzerland were unfortunate against Wales and were then comprehensively outplayed by Italy, while Turkey's displays so far have been a horror show. Rarely can I remember getting a team more wrong in a major tournament. I saw them as genuine dark horses to have a good run here, but now there is every chance that they will end bottom of the Group.

Must win for both teams

There's no question at all that both teams need to win this game. Draw and they are done for, win and they have an opportunity to progress. That sort of scenario usually points towards an open game, even though Turkey have played so far as if they would need three hatfuls of chances to finally break their goalscoring duck.

The last five meetings between these two countries have averaged 3.4 goals per game, which doesn't mean a great deal in terms of recent form ahead of the showdown in Baku, but at least reassures us as to the possibilities.

Switzerland are trading at 1.75 for the win, which seems remarkably short on the face of things, but when you consider just how bad Senol Gunes' side have been, it's not an unreasonable price. Turkey are 5.3, and it would be hard to find an excuse to back them, even though that price would have been unthinkable at the start of the tournament.

Two stats to bear in mind before throwing money at the Swiss is that Turkey haven't lost three games in a row since November 2010, and have, regardless of the situation, won their last four final Group games at major tournaments. Are they the kind of team that plays better when they can relax and the pressure is off? Maybe.

High-scoring game in store

The feeling that Turkey may at last produce a display which is worthy of the name puts me off supporting what is a fairly average Swiss side, and instead points me towards there being goals in this game.

Over 3.5 Goals is trading at 2.8, and given the fact that both sides have to win and that, prior to this tournament, three of Turkey's last five competitive games had gone Over 4.5 Goals, plus the fact Switzerland have also been involved in some lively affairs, then there is some juice in that price.

I mentioned in my preview that I liked Remo Freuler as an Anytime Goalscorer, and if he is given at least partial licence to get forward in the way that he does at Atalanta, then I think there might be a bit of value in supporting him at around the 6.0 mark. Turkey look so vulnerable to intelligent midfield running, that Freuler just might be able to capitalise.

If Switzerland do make it through, they look set for another last 16 exit as so many had predicted, while if Turkey make it anywhere further than this game, it would be something approaching a miracle.