Bundesliga Tips: Bayern to test Union's home form in Gameweek 10

Bundesliga Tips: Bayern to test Union's home form in Gameweek 10

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as the champions face a tough away test...

Hoffenheim to knock down Hertha

Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin
Friday, 19:30
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While last week's heavy defeat in Munich was a setback, Hoffenheim have been in better form at home recently. A big cup win made it 13 goals in three games at PreZero Arena, though their opponents have found something extra in front of goal to win their last three in all competitions. Infogol backs the home side, but we could well be in for some goals on Friday night.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.20

Mainz to earn back-to-back Bielefeld wins

Arminia Bielefeld v Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
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Arminia and Mainz met in midweek, with Bo Svensson's side claiming victory in extra-time, and Infogol's model fancies Mainz to complete a league and cup double over Saturday's opponents. Svensson's predecessor Jan-Moritz Lichte was in the dugout for a defeat in the corresponding game last season, but the visitors are favoured this year against an Arminia team coming off nine winless matches in this season's Bundesliga.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.60

Leverkusen to compound Wolfsburg's misery

Bayer Leverkusen v Wolfsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Things have been going from bad to worse for Wolfsburg after a strong start, and Mark van Bommel has been replaced by Florian Kohfeldt as a result. Leverkusen aren't in the best of form themselves, winning none of their last three and putting up underwhelming numbers in those games, but they're expected to prevail against opponents whose 0.95 xGA on the road is the worst of any side to register an away league win this season.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.40

Dortmund to continue perfect home start

Borussia Dortmund v Köln
Saturday, 14:30
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Five wins from five home games have kept Dortmund in title contention, though their opponents this weekend were victors at Signal Iduna Park towards the end of Lucien Favre's tenure last season. The hosts have the backing of Infogol's model, thanks in part to their 2.52 xGF average at home across those five matches, and defeat for Köln could see them drop into the bottom half come full-time.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-1 @ 12.00

Freiburg to continue strong form against Fürth

Freiburg v Greuther Fürth
Saturday, 14:30
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After surprising Wolfsburg on the road last weekend, Freiburg have a golden chance to end November still unbeaten in the league. Greuther Fürth showed some improvement in Leipzig last weekend, creating chances and even taking the lead, but the promoted side remain rooted to the foot of the table with eight defeats from nine and an extremely worrying 2.03 xGA average.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.00

Bayern to eke out a win at Union

Union Berlin v Bayern Munich
Saturday, 14:30
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Bayern Munich were made to work for a point at Union Berlin last season, and Urs Fischer's side have been similarly tough to break down on home soil this term. The difference comes from the fact that Bayern themselves have been in near-unstoppable form on the road, averaging 2.73 xGF per game, and this may well be enough for them to power them to victory in one of their more challenging away games this term.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.00

Leipzig to keep Frankfurt in trouble

Eintracht Frankfurt v RB Leipzig
Saturday, 17:30
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Eintracht Frankfurt's victory over Bayern Munich remains their only win in nine league games this term, and they should be worried by the underlying numbers which suggest their bottom-half berth is warranted. They welcome a Leipzig side who have been climbing the table after some impressive goalscoring displays, and the visitors can go into this game with confidence thanks to being in possession of the third-best xGF record in the division.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 8.40

Augsburg to stay in relegation danger

Augsburg v Stuttgart
Sunday, 14:30
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With the league's worst xGF and xGA records, Augsburg are in real trouble more than a quarter of the way into the season. While visitors Stuttgart are only three places above them in the table, Pellegrino Matarazzo's side have at least shown themselves capable of solid league performances, and can be hopeful of another win over a side who they beat 4-1 at WWK Arena last season.

BTTS? Yes Over/Under 2.5? Over Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.60

Gladbach to haul themselves towards the top half

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Bochum
Sunday, 16:30
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Gladbach's 1.86 xGF average should have them much higher than they are, and a victory at home to Bochum could help Adi Hütter's side make some of the progress they need. Infogol backs the home side, who had a rare off-day away to Hertha Berlin last weekend, with the hosts' unbeaten record at Borussia-Park unlikely to fall against opponents with a worrying trend for conceding goals away from home.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 8.20