La Liga Tips: Gameweek 12

La Liga Tips: Getafe and Levante to end winless runs in Gameweek 12

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as the two longest winless runs in the competition could end...

Real Madrid to preserve impressive away form

Elche v Real Madrid
Saturday, 13:00
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Real Madrid have more away points than any other team in La Liga, while their 1.75 xGF on the road is the competition's best average. Elche were one of the teams to keep them from winning on the road last season, but their unbeaten home start this term flatters Fran Escribá's side, who have continued to underwhelm in front of goal in real and expected terms and may not be able to rely on being awarded a penalty against Madrid this time around.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-3 @ 11.50

Sevilla to keep winning at home

Sevilla v Osasuna
Saturday, 15:15
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While Sevilla missed an opportunity to end Wednesday night top of the table, with what they thought was a late winner disallowed for handball, Julen Lopetegui's team have a perfect home record to protect against Osasuna. The visitors held Real Madrid on Wednesday to remain unbeaten away from El Sadar, but Infogol's model believes this will be the game when that particular record finally falls.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 7.20

Villarreal to get off the mark away from home

Valencia v Villarreal
Saturday, 17:30
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Villarreal continued to frustrate their fans in midweek, creating plenty against Cádiz but relying on a late equaliser to escape with a point after allowing their opponents to score three times. Unai Emery's side now have six draws from 10 games, but Infogol makes them narrow favourites to claim a win away to a Valencia side who they led against last season before two late home goals at the Mestalla turned the game around.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 13.00

Barcelona to begin post-foeman era with a win

Barcelona v Alavés
Saturday, 20:00
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Wednesday's defeat at Rayo was the final straw for Ronald Koeman, who was dismissed hours after the game with Barcelona down in ninth. Barça endured a dreadful away record under Koeman this season but it was a different story at Camp Nou, and they can feel confident against an Alavés side who are out of immediate danger after successive wins but still average 2.15 xGA per game on the road.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-0 @ 9.40

Cádiz in with a shot of long-awaited win

Cádiz v Mallorca
Sunday, 13:00
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Cádiz find themselves in trouble, owing in no small part to their 1.85 xGA average, and Arnaut Danjuma's added-time equaliser for Villarreal in midweek will have hurt. There were positives on Tuesday, though - notably, Anthony Lozano scored his first hat-trick for the club - and the hosts will feel capable of breaking down visitors who are averaging just 0.80 xGF across five away games this term.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-1 @ 5.80 or the 2-1 @ 11.00

Atléti to win battle of high-flyers

Atlético Madrid v Real Betis
Sunday, 15:15
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A third win in four for Real Betis on Wednesday was perhaps the most impressive of the bunch, and it sent Manuel Pellegrini's side joint-top of the league. If they want to stay there, though, they'll need to take something from the champions, who are unfortunate not to have more points at Wanda Metropolitano after averaging a measly 0.66 xGA per game in front of their own supporters and will be keen to put Thursday's disappointment at Levante behind them.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 7.20

Getafe to finally win at the Coliseum

Getafe v Espanyol
Sunday, 17:30
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Thursday's stoppage-time equaliser for Granada left Getafe still adrift at the bottom, and the match against Espanyol on Sunday now has even more importance. Quique Sánchez Flores' side have been dreadful at home, averaging just 0.50 xGF per game, but Infogol's model backs them to get something from opponents who are themselves yet to win a game away from home this season.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 11.50

Real Sociedad to stay unbeaten at home

Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao
Sunday, 20:00
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Logic dictates Real Sociedad will eventually concede a goal at Anoeta, but it hasn't happened yet to the league leaders and Infogol's model doesn't expect it to happen this weekend. Imanol Alguacil's side face opponents who are unbeaten on the road, but Athletic have averaged 1.20 xGA on the road and only some wasteful opposition finishing and impressive goalkeeping from Unai Simón has allowed them to avoid defeat on their travels.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 9.60

Rayo to lose magic touch at Vallecas

Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo
Monday, 17:30
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Rayo's win over Barcelona in midweek might have been a little fortunate, but five wins from five at home surely goes beyond their wildest dreams. The next visitors to Vallecas are Celta, who looked very dangerous throughout their win at Getafe in their last away outing. Infogol's model backs the visitors, though it will very much depend on which version of Celta shows up after two wins and two losses on the road so far.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 17.50

Levante to end wait for first win

Levante v Granada
Monday, 20:00
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Both of these teams begin the game in relegation trouble, sitting 19th and 17th respectively after both securing late points in midweek. Levante came desperately close to winning the corresponding game last term, only for Roberto Soldado to equalise in stoppage time, but Infogol's model backs the hosts to get the job done this time as two of the newer managerial appointments in La Liga go head-to-head.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 9.00