Bundesliga Tips

Bundesliga Tips: Dortmund and Leverkusen to cement top-four spots in Gameweek 7

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as the top four attempt to move away from the chasing pack...

Köln to extend unbeaten run to five

Köln v Greuther Fürth
Friday, 19:30
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Köln's three home games this season have brought seven points and plenty of attacking creativity, and Steffen Baumgart's side are now unbeaten in more than a month of football. They'll be confident of extending that run against a Fürth side rooted to the foot of the table and averaging 2.05 xGA across their six winless games since returning to the Bundesliga,

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.00

Dortmund to sustain perfect home form

Borussia Dortmund v Augsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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While Borussia Dortmund's free-scoring start to the season might not be entirely sustainable, the home form which has seen them win three from three is unlikely to be threatened by an Augsburg side averaging 2.07 xGA per away game. The hosts came from behind to win this fixture last season, during a period when they were struggling for results, and a healthier Dortmund should have enough even with some first-teamers unavailable.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-1 @ 11.50

Hertha to recover from Leipzig hammering

Hertha Berlin v Freiburg
Saturday, 14:30
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It feels impossible for Hertha Berlin to be as poor as they were in last week's 6-0 loss at RB Leipzig, and Freiburg's unbeaten away start contrasts with underlying numbers which are no better than okay. Infogol backs the home side to prevail, though not by the three-goal margin which represented their joint-biggest win of the 2020-21 season, with both teams backed to find the net this time around.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 11.50

Stuttgart to return to winning ways

Stuttgart v Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
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Hoffenheim picked up an impressive victory over Wolfsburg last week, but Sebastian Hoeneß will be aware his side allows opponents a greater sight of goal on the road. Hosts Stuttgart have just one win from their first six games, but their 2.8 xGF average at home is second only to league leaders Bayern Munich and manager Pellegrino Matarazzo will hope his team can turn chances into more goals.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 11.50

Wolfsburg to survive Gladbach battle

Wolfsburg v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday, 14:30
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After dropping to third with last weekend's defeat, Wolfsburg will be keen to get back on track as they look to put themselves in position for a second successive top-four finish. Last season's meeting with Borussia Mönchengladbach was an uneventful goalless draw, but Infogol's model believes both teams have enough about them to improve on that this time around in a battle between two new managers who have started at different speeds.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 10.00

Leipzig to earn second straight league win

RB Leipzig v Bochum
Saturday, 17:30
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Leipzig squandered a chance to go into this game on a high, throwing away an early lead to lose to Club Brugge in the Champions League, but last weekend's demolition of Hertha Berlin could well be followed by another handsome home victory. Bochum have averaged a worrying 3.53 xGA across their three away games, shipping seven in Munich earlier this month, and it's hard to see anything other than a home win.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-0 @ 8.80

Mainz to pip Union in tight contest

Mainz v Union Berlin
Sunday, 14:30
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Infogol's model can't find much to choose between two sides who were separated by a Moussa Niakhaté penalty last season, but it narrowly favours Mainz to clinch a repeat of their February victory. Mainz earned 11 fewer points than Union last season, but picked up more than Sunday's opponents after Bo Svensson's appointment at Mewa Arena, and the Danish coach can continue the strong home form which has his side just outside the top four.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.00

Bayern to preserve perfect home start

Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt
Sunday, 16:30
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Bayern's 3.53 xGF home average is comfortably the best in the Bundesliga, and the last three games of 2020-21 combined with the first three this term have seen them score 28 times. An Eintracht Frankfurt side who shipped five at the Allianz Arena in October 2020 aren't expected to threaten the champions' fast start, despite earning five draws from six outings this term, and Infogol's model foresees plenty of goals on Sunday.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-1 @ 11.00

Leverkusen to remain comfortable in the top four

Arminia Bielefeld v Bayer Leverkusen
Sunday, 18:30
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Bayer Leverkusen's lofty position comes in spite of a negative expected goal difference, but they should still feel capable of picking up three points in Bielefeld. Arminia are winless at SchücoArena, riding their luck a little to earn three draws in front of their fans, and last season's 2-1 away victory for Die Werkself is perhaps a better representation of where these teams stand in relation to one another.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 8.20