La Liga Tips

La Liga Tips: Real Madrid and Sevilla face early title battle in Gameweek 15

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as two title challengers meet in the capital...

Athletic to hand Granada third straight loss

Athletic Bilbao v Granada
Friday, 20:00
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A 2.96 xGA average across the last two games has brought two defeats to Granada, and a trip to San Mamés isn't the task you want when aiming to stop the rot. Athletic go into the game with a 0.8 xGA average on home soil, and Infogol's model backs them to secure a comfortable victory against opponents in danger of ending the weekend in the bottom three if results elsewhere go against them.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 7.40

Alavés to make it six without defeat

Alavés v Celta Vigo
Saturday, 13:00
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Alavés' battling point at Sevilla last weekend was a turn-up for the books, but suggests Javier Calleja's team have found their groove after a challenging start to the campaign. They host Celta on Saturday with the visitors coming off a third straight draw, though one imagines if they allow a repeat of Villarreal's 18 shots when they travel to Mendizorrotza then it will he tough to escape with a point again.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 15.50

Valencia to use home advantage against Rayo

Valencia v Rayo Vallecano
Saturday, 15:15
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Rayo Vallecano's home-away disparity has grown even further, with the visitors claiming nearly five times as many points at Vallecas compared to on the road. A trip to the Mestalla looks like being a tough one for Andoni Iraola's men, with the hosts unbeaten in three tricky games, and Pepe Bordalás' team are expected to turn their home solidity into a valuable three points.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 9.80

Getafe to keep momentum going

Mallorca v Getafe
Saturday, 17:30
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Getafe's 4-0 win over Cádiz last time out felt like a weight being lifted, even if the scoreline flattered them, and Quique Sánchez Flores' side now have an opportunity to climb out of the bottom three for the first time since the opening weekend of the season. While Mallorca have lost just once at home this term, they only have two wins at Visit Mallorca Estadi, and Infogol's model makes the visitors narrow favourites for this one.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 20.00

Barça to earn valuable away win

Villarreal v Barcelona
Saturday, 20:00
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Barcelona's European hopes are hanging in the balance after an unconvincing draw with Benfica on Tuesday night, but Xavi will hope the best way to build up for a crunch meeting with Bayern Munich is to get a run going domestically. Opponents Villarreal also have a massive Champions League game on the horizon after their midweek defeat, and Barça will feel they can follow Manchester United's lead and win at Estadio de la Cerámica.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 10.50

Levante's winless run to stretch to 15

Real Betis v Levante
Sunday, 13:00
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Levante's wait for a league win continued with their goalless draw last weekend, and the result saw Javier Pereira's side drop to the bottom of the table. They won't feel too confident against a Betis side whose own challenging run was brought to an end by a convincing win at Elche last time out, though Manuel Pellegrini's side remain a little flattered by their lofty league position amid some defensive concerns.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 9.80

Real Sociedad to keep Espanyol at bay

Espanyol v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 15:15
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Espanyol were unfortunate to lose to Barcelona last time out, and can give themselves a shot against Real Sociedad, but the hosts' failure to convert chances is enough of a concern for Infogol to favour Imanol Alguacil's visitors. La Real have still lost just once all season, though last week's draw with Valencia saw them lose top spot, and we could be in for another low scoring game at RCDE Stadium.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 12.00

Atléti to continue ominous climb up the table

Cádiz v Atlético Madrid
Sunday, 17:30
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Champions Atlético Madrid are beginning to loom large, and the meeting of two of their top-four rivals later on Sunday can allow them to gain more ground. Diego Simeone's side won 4-2 in Cádiz last season, while the hosts also shipped four in their most recent league game this season, but Infogol's model anticipates a quieter but equally comfortable victory for the visitors at Ramón de Carranza.

BTTS? No Over/Under 2.5? Under Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 6.40

Real Madrid to knock back title challengers Sevilla

Real Madrid v Sevilla
Sunday, 20:00
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Sevilla have the chance to end the weekend in top spot, but a win at the Bernabéu isn't the easiest thing to achieve. Real Madrid are averaging 2.24 xGF at home this term, and not even a morale-boosting midweek Champions League win is likely to give Julen Lopetegui's side what they need to claim victory against the manager's former employers in a potentially defining game for both teams.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 9.60

Osasuna to be comfortable against Elche

Osasuna v Elche
Monday, 20:00
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Elche's Fran Escribá became the latest La Liga manager to lose his job after last weekend's defeat to Real Betis, and the team could find themselves down in 19th by the time they kick off on Monday night. Osasuna won the corresponding game last season, with the visitors registering just two shots on target, and it's hard to see anything other than a similar outcome at El Sadar on Monday.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 8.00