Wolves v Leicester City

Wolves v Leicester City: Fragile Foxes will give us some fun

Leicester City are still having defensive issues, but Kevin Hatchard thinks they can at least score at Molineux.

Lage revolution is taking shape

It wasn't that long ago that Benfica placed their trust in renowned youth coach Bruno Lage, and he responded by delivering the Primeira Liga title in thrilling fashion. While that success wasn't ultimately sustained, the thoughtful 45-year-old is once again showing his quality at Wolves.

Lage has focused heavily on dialogue and presentations, so much so that he had a room at the training ground transformed so that it had the facilities for him to give multiple tactical presentations across the day. He is uncompromising in his methods, with double sessions far from unusual, but he has won over a set of players who had become used to life under the predecessor and compatriot Nuno.

Wolves' win at Tottenham last weekend has kept them in the mix for European qualification, and they are still in with a shot of securing a Champions League spot.

They have the second-best defensive record in the division, with just 17 goals conceded, and they have lost just eight of their 23 top-flight matches. However, wins have been hard to come by at Molineux, with the Old Gold taking maximum points just four times on home soil.

Veteran midfielder Joao Moutinho is still battling with a calf problem, and remains a doubt, while Willy Boly and Pedro Neto are long-term casualties.

Achilles heel is still troubling Foxes

Even in defeating a limited Randers side that was short of match practice, Leicester City failed to keep a clean sheet in the Europa Conference League on Thursday, and they have now managed just three shut-outs in their last 33 competitive matches.

A particular concern is the defending at set pieces. Having come back strongly against West Ham last Sunday, the Foxes dropped two points in dramatic fashion as they allowed Craig Dawson to steal in at a corner and bundle the ball home.

Brendan Rodgers' side has now leaked 14 Premier League goals from set pieces, including an eye-watering 11 from corners. For a man who is rightly hailed as a very intelligent coach, this is a chronic problem that needs fixing soon.

It's not all doom and gloom though. Leicester played some excellent attacking football against West Ham and Randers, with Belgian midfielder Youri Tielemans particularly impressive. He seems to have been stung by speculation about his future and a suggestion that his decision not to accept a new contract equates to a lack of commitment. Alongside him in midfield, academy graduate Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is rightly attracting rave reviews.

Leicester could still mount a late charge for a place in Europe, but their away form is also a big concern. The 2016 champions have taken just two points from their last five road trips in the top flight, and the last three away games have seen them lose 2-1, 6-3 and 2-0, although admittedly the latter two games were trips to the Etihad and Anfield.

Wesley Fofana is back in training but isn't ready for action, while fellow centre-back Caglar Soyuncu is being assessed after he was taken off against Randers with a knee injury. Jonny Evans, Jamie Vardy and Timothy Castagne are all still on the side-lines.

Wolves are fair favourites

Wolves have momentum, having won four of their last five Premier League matches, but their home form is putting off recommending them at 2.3 in the Match Odds market. Lage's men have only won one of their last five PL games at Molineux, and they have failed to score in four of those.

Instead, I'll back both teams to score at 1.9 on the Exchange. That has paid out in 23 of the Foxes' last 30 games, and the Infogol Expected Goals figures show that Wolves' PL matches should've featured 59.5 goals this term (yes, I know you can't have half a goal) as to opposed to the actual figure of 38.

Exploit Foxes' set-piece woes

Wolves are one of the most effective sides when it comes to attacking set plays, while Leicester are the worst in the top flight at defending them. I'm taking advice here from Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe, who suggested backing several of Wolves' aerial threats in the To Score market on the Football Only Bettor podcast.

Conor Coady 13.0 and Romain Saiss 7.5 have both scored twice in the league this season, and I'll put half a point on each of them here to score at any time.