Chelsea v West Ham: Goals to flow again at the Bridge

Chelsea have lost three on the bounce at home and West Ham have lost their last three Premier League away games so what's going to give on Sunday?

Tetchy Tuchel will demand a response

The Chelsea manager, Thomas Tuchel, was in a despondent mood after Wednesday's 4-2 Premier League defeat to Arsenal.

"Nowhere near the quality of the last three matches, and if we don't have this quality and discipline and investment then we can lose against anybody and obviously we're not satisfied. We have to prove it over and over again. We have now three home defeats with an incredible amount of individual mistakes and it's the same in three home matches and don't know how many more, we need to learn."

When asked how he picks the team up after the defeat he gave an incredibly candid reply.

"I don't know, I don't know, need to sleep about it, I have no idea right now."

As highlighted above, it's the first time the Blues have lost three-in-a-row at home since the early 90s and it was a much deserved defeat too given the xG read 2.0 - 0.77 in favour of the Gunners but it came after a run of three excellent performances away from Stamford Bridge.

Following a bizarre 4-1 defeat by Brentford at home in the Premier League and a very disappointing 3-1 loss at Stamford Bridge to Real Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League Quarterfinal, Chelsea battered Southampton away 6-0, gave Madrid an almighty scare in the second leg, winning 3-2, and they reached the FA Cup final on Sunday with a thoroughly professional 2-0 victory over a determined Crystal Palace at Wembley.

This latest loss was another bolt from the blue but it's perhaps easier to comprehend than either of their two previous home defeats. A combination of disappointment and relief following the two cup ties would have been, at least in part, a reason for the poor performance and

Virtually assured a top four finish and a place in next year's Champions League, Chelsea's attention will be on May 14 and their meeting with Liverpool but that top four finish isn't yet certain and Tuchel will demand a response on Sunday.

Moyes' men have Thursday on their minds

West Ham had aspirations of their own about a top four finish and remarkably, the Hammers were matched at a low of 2.52 earlier in the season.

After a disappointing run of form in the Premier League (won just four of their last 12), they're now out to a triple-figure price in the Top 4 Finish market and their attention is now almost certainly on qualifying for the Champions League via the Europa League.

West Ham have made it to the semi-finals and they're odds-on to beat Eintracht Frankfurt in the first leg at the London Stadium on Thursday night.

Rangers' opponents, RB Leipzig, in the other semi are the warm favourites to lift the cup but West Ham are second favourites and Thursday night's game is massive.

Now in seventh place in the Premier League and four points behind Spurs in fourth, having played more games than any of the current top four, David Moyes will surely prioritise Thursday's game and he may well rest a few key players.

The Hammers haven't won away from home in the Premier League since they beat Crystal Palace 3-2 on New Years Day (D1L4) and Moyes has never won at Stamford Bridge in 16 previous attempts so it's hard to envisage West Ham turning Chelsea over on Sunday.

Forget the outcome and back the goals to flow

Given Chelsea have lost just one of their last 16 home games against West Ham in all competitions and that they've won 10 of their last 15 against them in the Premier League, the 1.56 available about them winning in the outright market is perfectly fair.

Looking at the side markets, both teams have scored in 60% of Chelsea's Premier League home games and both sides have found the net in 64% of West Ham's Premier League games (50% of their away games) so odds-against for Yes in the Both Teams to Score market looks fair but I'm focusing on goals.

Given there have been three or more goals scored in 55% of all Premier League games these two teams have been involved in this season, and that five of Chelsea's last six Premier League matches, odds of around 10/11 in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market look reasonable.

Odds of around 6/4 for Chelsea/Over 2.5 Goals in the Match Odds and Over/Under 2.5 Goals market makes plenty of appeal but can the home side really be trusted after their recent run?

There have been at least four goals scored in five of Chelsea's last six matches in all competitions so odds of around 3.3 for Over 3.5 Goals, without having any concerns about the match outcome, could be the best way to play what's an intriguing match.

And given there's been at least five scored in four of those last six games involving Chelsea, and that the reverse fixture finished 3-2 in favour of the Hammers, a small bet on Over 4.5 Goals is in order too.

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