La Liga xG Tips

La Liga xG Tips: Real Madrid to seal title with Espanyol win in Gameweek 34

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides predictions as Carlo Ancelotti's Real Madrid aim to reclaim the title...

Sevilla to keep Cádiz in danger

Sevilla v Cádiz
Friday, 20:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Cádiz followed their shock win at Barcelona with an impressive attacking performance against Athletic, but were unable to pick up a point despite registering 27 shots. While the Camp Nou victory will give them some hope at Sevilla, the hosts' 1.14 xGA average at home will make it tough for the strugglers to pick up a second successive win on the road.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 7.40

Villarreal to earn third straight league win

Alavés v Villarreal
Saturday, 13:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Alavés are the lowest home scorers in La Liga, and this coupled with five defeats from their last six games means they've dropped to the foot of the table with just five games left. Villarreal's European distractions may give Julio Velázquez's side some hope, but Infogol still backs the visitors complete the double over a team who they beat 5-2 just before Christmas to make it three wins on the spin.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 10.00

Real Madrid to clinch title

Real Madrid v Espanyol
Saturday, 15:15
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Barcelona's weekend defeat means Real Madrid need just one more point to mathematically make sure of the title, and Infogol backs them to go even better than that against Espanyol. The visitors have averaged just 0.93 xGF on the road, winning only one of their 16 games so far, and it's expected to be a formality for Carlo Ancelotti's side as they aim to pick up points between the two legs of their Champions League semi-final.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.20

Levante to keep slim survival hopes with derby win

Valencia v Levante
Saturday, 17:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

There are some Valencia fans who will want nothing more than to see their team push neighbours Levante one step closer to the drop, but Infogol can see Alessio Lisci's visitors claim a win which would give them some hope. The recent win at Granada boosted Levante's away xGF average, and they'll hope to turn dominance into points in a way they couldn't when losing the reverse fixture 4-3.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 13.00

Atléti to stay on course for the top four

Athletic Bilbao v Atlético Madrid
Saturday, 20:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Atlético have been somewhat stumbling towards a top four finish, but the reigning champions' underlying numbers suggest they're more or less where they deserve to be. An away average of 1.28 xGA is one of the stingiest records in the league, while the same can be said for Athletic's 0.83 xGA at San Mamés, so this might not be the place to go if you're looking to see goals.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 13.50 or 1-2 @ 11.50

Osasuna to end Elche's run

Elche v Osasuna
Sunday, 13:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Back-to-back wins have taken Elche up to 38 points, leaving them on the verge of survival, but they might have to wait to make absolutely sure of it. Jagoba Arrasate's visitors have been rather hit and miss this season, but have vastly overperformed their numbers away from home to remain on track for a top four finish and Infogol's model gives them a narrow edge at Martínez Valero.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 11.00

Granada to fall short against Celta

Granada v Celta Vigo
Sunday, 15:15
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Aitor Karanka's first game in charge of Granada brought a big point at Atlético Madrid, but his team will likely need to create more to escape the bottom three. Denis Suárez delivered a last-gasp winner for Celta in the reverse fixture, but the hosts' 2.17 xGA average at Nuevo Los Cármenes is by far the worst in La Liga and remains a cause for concern as they sit just inside the bottom three.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 11.50

Rayo to slip back at Vallecas

Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 17:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Successive away wins have all but sealed Rayo's safety, with the second - at Barcelona - particularly momentous. They have been stronger at home by some distance this season, both in real and expected numbers, but La Real are good travellers and Infogol's model expects them to secure a narrow victory and remain on course for European qualification of some kind.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 11.50

Barça to rebound after run of defeats

Barcelona v Mallorca
Sunday, 20:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Three home defeats on the spin is more or less unheard of as far as Barcelona are concerned, but such a run has seen them eliminated from Europe and left them at risk of losing their grip on second place. Mallorca's visit to Camp Nou should help Xavi's side stop the slump, with a 1.02 xGF average on the road unlikely to cause the home side too many problems on Sunday night.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.20

Betis to remain in European contention

Getafe v Real Betis
Monday, 20:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video

A home defeat against Elche was a huge dent in Betis' top four hopes, but the Copa del Rey winners are still on course for a Europa League spot through their league position. Opponents Getafe are no longer fighting for their lives thanks to a long-awaited first away win of the season at Celta, but they're not completely safe yet and the away win backed by Infogol's model would leave them facing some uncertainty.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 15.00