La Liga Tips: Backing Barca a risk so go for goals

Despite their fine form, Dan Fitch is not convinced that Barcelona will beat stubborn Sevilla, as he previews the pick of the weekend La Liga action...

Real Madrid should get back on course

Celta Vigo 4.1 v Real Madrid 1.99; The Draw 3.75
Saturday 2 April, 17:30
Live on LaLigaTV and Betfair Live Video

The recent international break came at a good time for Real Madrid, allowing them time to recover from the humiliation of being thrashed at home in El Clasico.

Madrid lost 4-0 to Barcelona at the Bernabeu in their last outing. While the result is a warning of the threat that Barca pose in the future, for now Real Madrid remain huge favourites at 1.06 to win the La Liga title.

Despite the defeat, Real have a nine point lead over second placed Sevilla, with nine games remaining. It was only their third league loss of the season (W20 D6) and after their previous two defeats, Madrid were able to shrug off the disappointment and go on lengthy unbeaten runs.

Eleventh placed Celta Vigo are having a decent season, but have only won one of their last six league games (D3 L2). Real Madrid look a big price at 1.99 to get back to winning ways.

Atletico keeping clean sheets again

Atletico Madrid 1.39 v Alaves 12.0; The Draw 4.9
Saturday 2 April, 20:00
Live on LaLigaTV and Betfair Live Video

Atletico Madrid could go up to second in La Liga if they can beat Alaves by a sufficient margin.

A win would see fourth placed Atletico go level on points with Sevilla. At one stage it looked likely that there would be some new teams qualifying for the Champions League from Spain this season, but Atletico and Barcelona's improvement has seen them move back into the top four.

There is now a four point gap between Atletico and fifth placed Betis. Diego Simeone's team won 1-0 at Rayo Vallecano in their last outing, which stretched their unbeaten run across all competitions to seven games (W6 D1).

That run doesn't seem likely to be broken by 19th placed Alaves, who are without a win in five (D2 L3). No team has scored goals less than Alaves this season and with Atletico keeping clean sheets in four of their last seven games, it could make sense to back the hosts to win to nil at 2.05.

Barca's games guarantee goals

Barcelona 1.49 v Sevilla 7.6; The Draw 4.7
Sunday 3 April, 20:00
Live on LaLigaTV and Betfair Live Video

The La Liga action concludes with a big game, as third placed Barcelona host a Sevilla side clinging on to second.

Like Atletico Madrid, Barcelona are only three points behind Sevilla, but Xavi's side have the advantage of having a game in hand on all of the top four. Though it seems unlikely that anyone can beat Real Madrid to the title, second place is very much up for grabs, which seemed an unthinkable prospect for Barca, just a few months ago.

Sevilla could end up finishing third or worse, in what has been a two-horse title race for most of the season. With just two defeats in La Liga, no team has lost less games, but also, no side has drawn more times than Sevilla, who have suffered twelve stalemates.

Some seven of those twelve league draws have come in Sevilla's last nine games, so though they are unbeaten in 15 La Liga matches (W7 D8), they have seen Barca and Atletico gain ground. Barcelona look short at this price considering how hard Sevilla have proved to beat this season, so we'll look towards the goals markets. Over 2.5 goals has landed in each of Barcelona's last seven league games and is available at 1.9.

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