Miami Open Men's Day Six Tips: Back Sebastian Korda at generous price
Third round action at the Miami Masters continues on Monday, with some excellent clashes in prospect, so Dan Weston previews the action and recommends his best bet...
It was a pretty god day for pre-match favourites last night in Miami with the majority winning relatively easily. Favourite winners included Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner plus Alexander Zverev, although Gael Monfils was shocked by Francesco Cerundolo in straight sets.
The schedule starts at 16:00 UK time today, and while there are several very short-priced favourites - Daniil Medvedev against Pedro Martinez Portero and Carlos Alcaraz versus Marin Cilic - all the remaining matches look pretty competitive.
Market pricing Brooksby on potential
One match which fascinates is Jenson Brooksby versus Roberto Bautista-Agut, with the American, Brooksby, the 1.73 market favourite to progress. There's little doubt Brooksby is really pushing on this year, reaching the final in Dallas, and the fourth round several weeks ago at Indian Wells. His last three defeats have been against strong opposition, as well.
Bautista-Agut has had a mixed 2022 so far, but did win the 250 event on outdoor hard court in Doha. However, he does come off the back of a 6-2 6-0 loss against Alcaraz at Indian Wells, which is hardly a positive in advance of a match against one of the best young talents on tour. Some people may see Brooksby as being short-priced but he's clearly a player on a big upward curve, and the market is clearly taking this int account.
Harris should end Nishioka's run
Yoshihito Nishioka's win over Dan Evans several days ago was a tough one for us to take, but the Japansese man should get his comeuppance tonight against Lloyd Harris. The two players have similar return numbers but Harris is much the stronger server based on 12 month hard court data.
Most other matches today look pretty reasonably priced, including Taylor Fritz at [1.62 ] for his clash with countryman Tommy Paul - Fritz has a much stronger serve, historically, and I'm also surprised to see Sebastian Korda at 2.08 against Miomir Kecmanovic.
Korda should be shorter-price
The Serb, Kecmanovic, had a strong run to the quarter-finals at Indian Wells several weeks ago but I wonder how fatigued that may make him - particularly with four of his five matches in California going five sets. Korda pushed Rafa Nadal in that event, losing a final set tiebreak and he's just played less tennis, which is a trait I quite like.
Around six months ago, I had Korda ahead of Brooksby in the young players to watch chart, but now I think Brooksby is ahead. But regardless of this, the slight underdog price on Korda is pretty attractive, in my view.
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