Burnley v Man City: City to tough it out at Turf Moor

Paul Higham expects Man City to get three points at Turf Moor but Burnley should make them work hard for it.

Back to business for Burnley

It's back to the grind for Burnley as their relegation fight faces the toughest possible challenge with the visit of champions Man City, who have dominated the Clarets recently, to Turf Moor.

Burnley have lost three straight and seen their rivals grab some vital points to leave them second-bottom, four points from safety and now facing a City side they've lost to nine times in a row by an aggregate score of 32-1.

It certainly feels like this could finally be the year Sean Dyche's side go down, and although their fate won't be decided by games against Man City, they can't really afford a hammering as goal difference could yet come into play.

Dyche's only hope here would be some tired City legs after the international break but even that seems to be clutching at straws.

City straight back into title fight

After the FA Cup and international break Man City resume their quest for the title with what looks like a regulation away win against a side they usually dispatch with ease, but as we head down the stretch now every game becomes vital.

Pep Guardiola's side haven't really "thrown away" a title lead as many suggest. A defeat and a draw in their last four games followed a run of 15 straight wins and only Liverpool's own relentless pace saw them close the gap.

Both sides are just miles clear of the rest and their astonishing consistency means this again could be an epic title battle going down to the wire. What we do know is that if City take the lead they they'll win - as they're the only team yet to drop a single point from a winning position this season.

Guardiola's men have ridden their luck at times, notably a couple of dodgy penalty decisions at Arsenal, one given for them against Wolves and one somehow not given against them at Everton, but overall they've been excellent yet again and should have no problems here.

Go low on goals as league returns

Only Liverpool have scored more so I'm not really buying this "City need a striker" theme - although they will probably spend their Abu Dhabi millions on Erling Haaland this summer...

Saying that, they have been a bit wasteful in recent away games and have struggled to put teams away while continuing to dominate the ball and create plenty of chances.

Their 0-0 at Palace last time out was the fourth game they've not scored in during this league season, while City only scored once at Everton, Southampton and Brentford in their last six away games.

Given Burnley's scoring problems though, one goal may well be enough, especially since City have won all 22 games they've led in and they're huge 1.24 favourites to win here.

Burnley are 17.0 and even the draw is 7.0 as a lot would have to go wrong for City in front of goal not to win.

Looking at the prices, and the fact Burnley have managed to keep first-half clean sheets in five of their last six, then a Man City win and under 2.5 goals at 3.4 looks a decent shout.

Chelsea stuck four in at Turf Moor last time out, but Burnley's six previous home league games all had under 2.5 goals in them.

Sterling and Mahrez the men for City

Riyad Mahrez and Raheem Sterling both have 10 league goals for City this season as their top scorers, and while Mahrez has been the star of late he played extra time for Algeria during the week so Guardiola may opt to save him for the bench.

Sterling captained England and scored, so after not playing in City's last two league games he may get the start this time along with Gabriel Jesus, Phil Foden, Jack Grealish and Bernardo Silva vying for the other two spots.

Mahrez is the favourite to score anytime at 1.91 but Sterling at 2.3 looks a slightly better bet with the doubt over whether Mahrez will start.

Kevin De Bruyne had the week off and has three goals in three so at 2.8 will be a popular anytime scorer shout with a packed Burnley defence promoting shooting from distance.

City spread their goals around though so you're always taking a bit of a shot in the dark, and you'd be better here looking at other bets based on Burnley keeping it tight, especially in the first half.

Draw/Man City in the half-time/full-time market is 4.1 while the half-time draw is 2.9.

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