WTA Wimbledon Day Six Tips

WTA Wimbledon Day Six Tips: Anisimova value ahead of Gauff clash

Iga Świątek headlines the action from the top half of the women's singles draw at Wimbledon on Saturday, and Dan Weston returns to give his thoughts on her match and his value pick...

Swiatek still with much to prove on grass

I'm still not sure about Iga Swiatek on grass. Yes, the number one seed has extended her unbeaten run to 37 matches, but dropped a set as the 1.03 pre-match favourite in round two against the lucky loser Lesley Kerkhove in a far from dominant display.

Swiatek only won 53% of points in the match against a 30-year-old opponent who has never broken the top 130 in the world, which should be a real concern for her outright backers.

On Saturday, the Pole faces Alize Cornet who is definitely an upgrade in opposition quality. While Swiatek should get past Cornet still, this is probably the start of her being tested on this surface by more competent grass courters and higher standard players in general than those who she's beaten.

The 1.20 on Swiatek looks pretty short though, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if Cornet gave her a decent match.

Tough to dispute most market lines

The winner of that match faces Ajla Tomljanovic or Barbora Krejcikova in the fourth round, and it's Krejcikova who is the 1.82 favourite to proceed. Surface data on Krejcikova is thin on the ground, but what I do have makes her a very slight favourite also, so it's tough to dispute the market line here.

It's also tough to do so in the Paula Badosa versus Petra Kvitova match, which I must admit I initially thought Kvitova looked generously priced at 1.74 given her long-term grass court pedigree.

However, the fourth seed Badosa has breezed past limited opposition here so far and if she can get accustomed to grass, which she looks like doing so, is a decent test for the 2011 and 2014 champion here. Throw into the mix that Kvitova hasn't particularly convinced in the tournament so far, and this should be a competitive match also.

Gauff short-priced against Anisimova

One match which I think the market is out of line though, is the all-US clash between Cori Gauff and Amanda Anisimova. Over the last 12 months on grass, Gauff has a service points won edge, and Anisimova has a slightly smaller advantage on return points won.

While Gauff's potential ceiling is extremely high, she struggled past Elena Gabriela Ruse in round one, and I'm pretty surprised to see her as short as 1.48 against a very strong opponent who has plenty of upside herself. Anisimova is Saturday's pick.

Boulter favourite to continue excellent tournament

Finally, British focus on Saturday will be on Katie Boulter after the wild card dumped out Karolina Pliskova in round two. Following that win, Boulter is rewarded with a third round clash against Serena Williams' conqueror, Harmony Tan - and the Brit is favourite at 1.47.

On grass, Boulter has pretty strong data (102% combined service/return points won in the last two years) which gives her a great chance to make round four, where she would play the winner of the Gauff v Anisimova match.