ATP Wimbledon Day One Tips

ATP Wimbledon Day One Tips: Bublik should get past injury doubt Fucsovics

First-round action from Wimbledon starts on Monday, with 32 matches from the top half of the men's singles draw on the schedule. Dan Weston returns with his thoughts...

Djokovic and Hurkacz should ease into round two

With the top half in action on Monday, that means that Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Carlos Alcaraz and our outright pick for quarter two, Hubert Hurkacz, are some of the big names taking to the courts on Monday.

Djokovic should ease past Soonwoo Kwon, while it would also be a big shock if Hurkacz was ousted by the Spaniard, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. However, Murray goes into his match with James Duckworth with injury doubts, and Alcaraz's level on grass is difficult to ascertain given that he's only played two career matches on grass and hasn't played any warm-up events.

Even with opponent Jan-Lennard Struff's poor form of late and recent injury issues, I think the market is taking chances pricing up Alcaraz at 1.28.

Sinner vs Wawrinka the match of the day

Arguably the match of the day on Monday is Jannik Sinner versus Stan Wawrinka, with Sinner chalked up as the 1.38 market favourite. The Italian has only played one grass warm-up match ahead of Wimbledon, losing in three sets to Tommy Paul at Eastbourne, meaning that he's actually never won a main tour match on the surface in his entire career.

Wild-card Wawrinka is evidently nearing the end of his career but in appearances this season has generally fought well, indicating that his issues are probably more physical than mental, and on a big stage against an opponent unproven on grass, could cause big problems for Sinner.

Bublik favourite over injury doubt Fucsovics

Looking at some matches where the market anticipate competitive clashes, I'm surprised that Alexander Bublik is as big as 1.71 as favourite over Marton Fucsovics. Bublik picked up a couple of decent wins in the grass warm-up events in recent weeks, while losing to decent opposition, but Fucsovics retired in his last two matches with back problems.

Ahead of the round one of a Slam match, I'd much rather be onside with the player whose opponent has injury problems, particularly given the propensity of players to turn up injured to Slams.

Moving onto, I wouldn't be surprised if Aljaz Bedene had too much for Max Marterer, with the Slovenian trying to get back to his previous levels after missing the best part of a year. He has far better career data on grass compared to the German, who qualified to be here but against very limited opposition on the surface.

Peniston still with much to prove

British interest, as well as with Murray, will be on Cameron Norrie, who appears to have a virtual bye against Pablo Andujar, plus Jay Clarke who is around even money against the qualifier Christian Harrison. Also, Ryan Peniston, who has attracted some headlines over the last couple of weeks, faces Henri Laaksonen.

Peniston was ranked around the 300 mark at the start of the year but has picked up wins in the warm-up grass events, but generally against pretty mediocre grass courters with arguably the exception of Adrian Mannarino and possibly Jiri Vesely. It's at least worth asking the question as to whether Peniston has been overvalued by the market at 1.27 against the veteran Swiss player.