WTA Wimbledon Day Three Tips: Bouzkova should have too much for Li
The women's singles continues at Wimbledon on Wednesday, with round two getting underway. Back to give his thoughts on the day ahead is Dan Weston...
Numerous heavy favourites as round two gets underway
Quarters three and four get the second round started on Wednesday and that means the likes of Alison Riske, Elise Mertens, Ons Jabeur, Maria Sakkari and Jelena Ostapenko are all heavy favourites to progress against what are, in theory, much more limited opposition on the surface.
Raducanu looking short-priced as favourite over Garcia
One of the highlights of the day is Caroline Garcia versus Emma Raducanu, with this being arguably the match of day three. Garcia had struggled a bit this season but the switch to grass appears to have worked in her favour, winning the Bad Homburg warm-up tournament last week - beating Bianca Andreescu impressively in the final.
Garcia, however, only just beat the unheralded Brit, Yuriko Lily Miyazaki, via a third-set tiebreak in round one, and that might give insight into the potential fatigue level which the French player may be struggling with after playing 13 sets last week in Germany.
Raducanu is the 1.64 favourite, which based on grass numbers and general logic based on recent results, looks absurd, but I do worry about this being a spot where the 'market knows'.
Watson with tough match against Wang
Another Brit joining Raducanu in round two action is Heather Watson, who got past Tamara Korpatsch in an interrupted first round match which was paused overnight while opponent Qiang Wang got the better of 14th seed Belinda Bencic in round one. The market is still forming on this particular match, although based on early general market pricing, Wang looks like a marginal favourite. I think Wang has a higher ceiling generally but Watson does enjoy playing on grass, so it looks to be a good match in prospect.
Bouzkova with data edge over Li
There's not much in the way of pre-match value on the card today, but one spot I don't mind is Marie Bouzkova versus Ann Li. On grass over the last couple of years, Bouzkova has better serve and return numbers, particularly on return, and over a longer period of time, Li hasn't been able to pick up many wins on grass. I'm quite surprised Bouzkova is as big as 1.62 to get the win here.
Zhang looking generously priced against Kostyuk
In other matches, if Shuai Zhang is fully fit then she looks some value at around 2.20 over Marta Kostyuk, who edged Katie Swan earlier today in their round one match, but the Chinese veteran had a back problem in Birmingham, when she retired in the final, so let's see. Zhang dominated Misaki Doi in round one, so she could well be over that issue now.
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