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La Liga Betting: Deportivo can make life tough for bruised Real Madrid

Atlético Madrid v Villarreal 
Tuesday, 20:30 
Live on Sky Sports 3 and Betfair Live Video 
 
Saturday's win over Espanyol was pretty much the archetypal Atlético 
Madrid display, nine parts defensive grit with a dash of Antoine 
Griezmann magic to get them over the line. It's now eight clean sheets in 11 for Los Colchoneros - proof that they are back to their suffocating best. 
 
Given their form, Diego Simeone would be forgiven for feeling a pang 
of regret when he glances at the Primera División table. If Atleti had 
been this ruthless earlier in the season, they would surely be up there 
making life difficult for Barcelona and Real Madrid, both of whose flaws
 have been evident in recent weeks. Instead, it's Champions League or bust. 
 
Tuesday's game against Villarreal is unlikely to be a thriller. Only 
one of Atlético's last seven games has gone over the 2.5-goal mark and 
the Yellow Submarine tend to be fairly circumspect on the road: just two
 of their last nine away matches have produced three goals or more. The 
in-form Cédric Bakambu will test the home defence and Victor Ruiz's suspension may disrupt Villarreal's gameplan a touch, but unders looks a solid pick. 
 
Recommended Bet 
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.80 
 
Barcelona v Osasuna 
Wednesday, 18:30 
Live on Sky Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video 
 
As a wise man once said, there are three certainties in life: death, taxes and Lionel Messi.
 The Barça talisman was at it again on Sunday night, scoring a brilliant
 brace in El Clásico to reignite the title race. His second, stroked 
home with trademark minimalism in injury time, was his 500th goal for 
the Blaugrana - a stunning achievement given that he's yet to hit 30. 
 
The win was, in the words of Luis Enrique, "a gargantuan morale 
boost" for Barça, who had looked so deflated at the end of the Champions
 League defeat at the hands of Juventus and appeared to have surrendered
 two points when James Rodríguez planted a late shot into the roof of 
the net. But for all their shortcomings, one thing this squad clearly doesn't lack is fighting spirit. 
 
Barça top the table going into the midweek round and, courtesy of an early kick-off time, have the chance to pile the pressure on their great rivals
 by beating doomed Osasuna. With the wind in their sails, we fully 
expect them do just that, but there's little value to be had backing the
 home side, even with a handicap. 
 
Instead, it may be worth taking a chance on Osasuna getting on the 
scoresheet. Petar Vasiljević's charges are enjoying their best spell of 
the season (this isn't saying much, admittedly), winning seven points 
from their last four matches. More relevantly, they have scored in 12 of their last 16 games and can take advantage of Barça's propensity for defensive lapses. 
 
Recommended Bet 
Back Osasuna to score one goal at 9/5 
 
Deportivo La Coruña v Real Madrid 
Wednesday, 20:30 
Live on Sky Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video 
 
Game management? You've come to the wrong place. At least that's the 
conclusion you'd have to draw after Madrid's late Clásico collapse, 
which was as much a product of their own harebrained mentality as it was
 to Barcelona's attacking brilliance. With the seconds ticking away, the
 ten men should have been protecting a result that would have all but 
sealed the title; instead, they threw men forward and paid the price. 
 
Zinedine Zidane must now ensure that defeat does not echo through the
 rest of Madrid's season, but it won't be an easy task. As well as the 
psychological consequences, there are new personnel issues: Gareth Bale limped off in the first half and walking red card machine Sergio Ramos must now serve a suspension. With the defence already ravaged by injuries, Zidane may have to get creative in the weeks ahead. 
 
Deportivo La Coruña pushed Real to the limit at the Bernabéu back in 
December and could provide further resistance on Wednesday night. They have tightened up under Pepe Mel
 and are tricky to break down on home soil: no team has scored more than
 one goal as visitors to the Riazor since November. Both Atlético and 
Barcelona have returned home disappointed in recent weeks. 
 
Depor may not have the attacking quality to win here, but we like 
their chances of keeping the score respectable. Back them with a 
1.5-goal advantage and you'll profit if even if they lose by one. 
 
Recommended Bet 

Back Deportivo +1.5 at 1.80 
 
 
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La Liga Betting: Deportivo can make life tough for bruised Real Madrid

Atlético Madrid v Villarreal Tuesday, 20:30 Live on Sky Sports 3 and Betfair Live Video Saturday's win over Espanyol was pretty muc...

18:24

Football Bet of the Day: No dangers for Angers tonight

Angers v Guingamp 
Tuesday April 26, 20:00 
 
Cruise control for us last night
 in the home of luxury cars, as Stuttgart drove over the Union Berlin 
defence to win 3-1 and go three points clear at the top of Bundesliga 2.
 Wunderbar. 
 
We stay in western Europe, and head to France. Angers face Guingamp in the semi-finals of the Coupe de France. 
 
It's been an incredible rise for Angers. After 21 
years outside the top flight, they returned to Ligue 1 in 2015, 
finishing ninth in their first campaign back in the big time. Although 
they haven't been quite as impressive in the league this term, they are 
now on the cusp of reaching their first major final. 
 
Although Les Scoistes have lost four of their last five league games,
 there are several reasons why I'll be backing them to win in 90 minutes
 this evening. First of all, their form at the Stade Raymond Kopa (the 
legendary France and Real Madrid player who started his career at 
Angers) is very good. They recently lost to the top two, Monaco and PSG,
 but before that they had won four out of six at home, drawing the other
 two. In the cup, Angers have won home ties against Bordeaux and Caen. 
 
Perhaps most importantly, Angers stuffed tonight's opponents 3-0 just over a month ago. They had to work for the win, but once they broke Guingamp's resistance, they romped to victory. 
 
Guingamp made a strong start to the campaign, but they have been atrocious
 on the road for some time now. They have lost seven of their last eight
 away games in Ligue 1, and have only scored three goals in that 
sequence. 
On that basis, I'm happy to back Angers to win this at 2.40. 
 
Recommended Bet 

Back Angers to win at 2.40 
 
 
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Football Bet of the Day: No dangers for Angers tonight

Angers v Guingamp Tuesday April 26, 20:00 Cruise control for us last night in the home of luxury cars, as Stuttgart drove over the Unio...

18:15

AFL Preview: Essendon v Collingwood

Essendon v Collingwood Tuesday 3:20pm at MCG 
 
 
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The loser of this one will not be playing finals in 2017 </div>
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Form</div>
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Essendon were out-ran, out-classed and out-played across the park by Adelaide last week. Surprisingly, the Bombers had 58 more uncontested possessions than the Crows though it was their slow ball movement and turnovers, which really cost them. The Bombers turned it over 82 times against the Crows and when the Crows got the ball, they went at a high 77% efficiency rating. The Bombers will need to improve their skills with the ball if they are to get a win here on ANZAC Day.</div>
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The Pies were heavily backed last week, with the line moving from -1.5 to -10.5, which was one of the biggest moves of the round. Unfortunately for the punters, the move didn’t pay off with the Saints running out 14-point winners. The Pies had an inside 50 differential of -16 and allowed the Saints to have 41 more marks than them in a performance that lacked any real effort. More disturbingly, the Pies were out-tackled by 31 and only laid 56 for the match. Compare this to the previous week against the Swans were the Pies managed 115 tackles; the steep decline is of great concern.</div>
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Stats That Matter</div>
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<li style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Collingwood have won 6 of the last 9 against Essendon at a POT of 20%</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">6 of the last 9 matches have gone under the game total</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Collingwood have won 4 of the past 5 ANZAC Day clashes</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">4 of the last 5 ANZAC Day matches have finished under the game total</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Collingwood are 0-4 straight up in their last 4 daytime matches at the MCG</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">4 of the last 5 daytime matches at the MCG involving Collingwood have finished under the game total</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Collingwood have conceded an average of 113.66 points per game in their last 3 daytime matches at the MCG</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Essendon have won 9 of their last 20 daytime matches at the MCG at a POT of 82%</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Essendon average just 78.7 points per game in their last 20 daytime matches at the MCG</li>
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Betting Data</div>
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2017 Line: Essendon 2-2, Collingwood 2-2 2017 Over/Under: Essendon 3-1, Collingwood 1-3</div>
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What To Expect</div>
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Coach Worsfold told the media after his sides heavy defeat to Adelaide that his side had ‘hit a wall’ in their match against Adelaide. Luckily for the Bombers they have a 10-day break to prepare for this clash and should have no trouble lifting for the ANZAC Day occasion. The Bombers should fancy themselves to score a few points against a Pies defence that has leaked 113.6 points per game in their last 3 daytime matches at the MCG. If they are to do this, Hooker and particularly Daniher are going to have to kick straight to help apply scoreboard pressure.</div>
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The Wolf is finding it difficult to predict which Pies team will show up on Tuesday. 2 weeks ago they laid 115 tackles against the Swans but last week managed only 56 for the match. Given the ANZAC Day occasion, we can expect the Pies of 2 weeks ago to show up here and lift their tackling pressure. With recent history suggesting a low scoring affair and both teams struggling so far in 2017 to put on scoreboard pressure, the Wolf will be on the unders in this one.</div>
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How Its Shaping Up</div>
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Essendon By 6</div>
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Recommended Bet</div>
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Best: Under 180.5 Total Game Score ($1.88)</div>
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Player Markets</div>
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These two sides have a combined 8 players averaging over 100 fantasy points per game in 2017, with 6 of these 8 players averaging over 110. Based on these stats it’s fair to say that this game will be a fantasy point feast. Zach Merrett is in fine form again in 2017 after is brilliant 2016 averaging 33.3 disposals, 5.5 marks, 4.8 tackles and 125 points per game. His recent record against the Pies however is not fantastic as he scored just 66 on them last year.</div>
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For the Pies, their entire midfield continues to find plenty of the ball. Out of all the stars however, it has been Taylor Adams that has been the most consistent performer to date. Adams averages 32 disposals, 4.3 marks, 8.3 tackles and 123.5 fantasy points per game so far in 2017. His recent record against the Bombers is equally superb. In his last 3 against the Bombers he averages 32.7 disposals, 7 marks, 3.7 tackles and 120.7 fantasy points. The Wolf will be all over Adams here to have another big game.</div>
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Recommended Bet 
Prop: Taylor Adams 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.50)</div>
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AFL Preview: Essendon v Collingwood

Essendon v Collingwood Tuesday 3:20pm at MCG The loser of this one will not be playing finals in 2017 Form Essendon were out-ran, ...

17:53

NRL Preview: Storm v Warriors

NRL Preview Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors Tuesday, April 25, 7pm (AEST), AAMI Park, Melbourne 
 
 
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The Storm got the job done at Brookvale last week, but you can guarantee that coach Craig Bellamy would be furious about the 26 points conceded. The Warriors have endured a tricky fortnight with away trips to Canberra and the upcoming match in Melbourne. The Storm are starting to get back to full-strength minus Tohu Harris and will be difficult to beat back at home.</div>
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History 
The Storm have won three straight and 7 of their last 10 against New Zealand including a 26-10 in Auckland earlier this season. The Storm have won 4 of the last 5 against the Warriors in Melbourne by double digits.</div>
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Form 
Melbourne sit second on the ladder with a 6-1 record though they rank fourth in differential. Their defence remains top in the NRL despite conceding 26 points in their last clash against Manly. Previously the Storm had not conceded more than 14 points in a match. New Zealand have been much-improved since Kieran Foran’s return, winning two of their last three, but went down 20-8 in Canberra in their last clash. The Warriors have scored more than 22 points in just one of their last six.</div>
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Key Matchup Billy Slater v Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. Slater had his best game in a Storm jersey since his return from injury in the win over the Sea Eagles. He had a hand in three of the Storm’s six tries. It’s the confidence boost “Billy The Kid” needed to prove the critics that his best isn’t behind him. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is slowly working back to form, with four line-breaks in seven of the Warriors matches this season. The spine of RTS, Foran, Johnsons and Luke is starting to click and the best of RTS is still to come.</div>
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Stats That Matter 
Melbourne are 4-3 ATS with a 5-2 under record while New Zealand are 1-6 ATS with a 4-3 under number. The Storm have won three straight and 7 of their last 10 against New Zealand including a 26-10 in Auckland earlier this season. The Storm have won 4 of the last 5 against the Warriors in Melbourne by double digits. The Storm have scored 21-plus in 8 of their last 10 against the Warriors. The Warriors have covered just 1 of their last 11 games and 4 of their last 11 away from Mt Smart Stadium.</div>
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Final Thoughts 
The Storm have a strong record against the Warriors in Melbourne and won’t leak points like they did last week at Brookvale. The Warriors are horrible away from NZ and The Wolf won’t be trusting them here.</div>
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How It’s Shaping Up Melbourne Storm by 14</div>
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Best Bet 
Melbourne Storm -9.5 ($1.91)</div>
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Other Recommended Bets Over 36.5 ($1.88)</div>
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NRL Preview: Storm v Warriors

NRL Preview Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors Tuesday, April 25, 7pm (AEST), AAMI Park, Melbourne The Storm got the job done at Bro...

17:40

NRL Preview: Roosters v Dragons

NRL Preview Sydney Roosters v St George Illawarra Dragons Tuesday, April 25, 4pm (AEST), Allianz Stadium, Sydney 
 
 
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The Dragons have been the surprise packets this season and many experts are waiting for them to fall off their perch sooner rather than later. This will be a big test against a strong Roosters side, but The Wolf is starting to think that the Dragons are the real deal and their no-nonsense style of football will work a treat in a low-scoring affair. The Dragons have been boosted by the return of Josh Dugan in the No.1 jersey, while Latrell Mitchell and Dylan Napa have been named on an extended bench for the Roosters.</div>
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History 
The Roosters and Dragons have played some thrillers on ANZAC Day over the years and The Wolf is expecting nothing different on Tuesday afternoon. The Roosters have won 7 of their last 9 against the Dragons but the Saints have won the last two and nine of the last 11 Anzac Day games. The Dragons won last year’s ANZAC Day clash 20-18, while the Roosters bounced back in a big way in the Round 24 clash with a 42-6 victory. Blake Ferguson and Daniel Tupou both crossed for doubles on that occasion.</div>
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Form 
The Sydney Roosters opened the season with four straight wins before back-to-back losses and an unconvincing win over Newcastle. The Roosters have posted more than 20 just once since Round 2. The Chooks are fourth on the ladder with a 5-2 record. The Dragons have been the hot team in the NRL and remarkably lead the premiership with a 6-1 record, the best attack and the third best defence. The Saints have won their last five and have posted 26-plus in their last four. They have won all three road games this year.</div>
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Key Matchup Jared Waerea-Hargreaves v Paul Vaughan. The Wolf is expecting a physical battle and these two enforcers will go a long way to deciding the fate of their respective sides. Waerea-Hargreaves toes a fine line with his aggression, but if he can control it, he’ll be one to watch for the Dragons pack. Vaughan has been one of the signings of the season and has been the Dragons best player alongside Gareth Widdop. Vaughan keeps things simple by going forward all day long and will create plenty of space for Widdop to weave his magic.</div>
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Stats That Matter 
Sydney Roosters are 4-3 ATS with a 4-3 under record while St George Illawarra are 5-2 ATS with a 4-3 over record. The Roosters have won 7 of their last 9 against the Dragons but the Saints have won the last two and nine of the last 11 Anzac Day games. Three of the last four matches have tallied 38 points or fewer. The Dragons have covered 6 of their last 9 as an underdog.</div>
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Final Thoughts 
The Wolf is surprised that the Dragons have drifted out to 4 point outsiders and it’s impossible not to take the Dragons with the generous start. The Dragons have one of the most underrated packs in the competition, but are riding high on confidence and always lift on ANZAC Day. Definitely look value as outsiders.</div>
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How It’s Shaping Up St George Illawarra by 4</div>
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Best Bet 
St George Illawarra +4 ($1.91)</div>
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Other Recommended Bets St George Illawarra 1-12 ($3.75)</div>
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NRL Preview: Roosters v Dragons

NRL Preview Sydney Roosters v St George Illawarra Dragons Tuesday, April 25, 4pm (AEST), Allianz Stadium, Sydney The Dragons have been t...

17:35

Football Bet of the Day: Union won't be able to strike in Stuttgart

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A bad day for Ajax in the Netherlands <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; outline-color: initial; outline-width: initial; transition: color 0.2s;">yesterday, as their 1-0 defeat at old rivals PSV dealt a hammer blow to their title hopes. It didn't do our mate Tobias any good either, but as least he's left in a pleasant country to relax for a week.</div>
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We start our seven-day stint in Germany, because the race for promotion spots in Bundesliga 2 continues to intensify. Leaders Stuttgart could go three points clear at the top if they beat Union Berlin, but if the visitors win, then there'll be four teams locked together at the top on 57 points.</div>
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Stuttgart are looking for an instant return to the top flight after relegation last season, and after a false start under Jos Luhukay, coach Hannes Wolf has done a fine job. VfB have only lost one of their last seven matches, and at home they have won ten of their 14 games at the Mercedes-Benz Arena. They have won four of their last six home games, and have scored at least twice in five of those matches. Top scorer Simon Terodde is on good form, with three goals in his last three matches, and he is coming up against his former club.</div>
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Union haven't finished higher than sixth in the second tier in the last seven seasons, and just over a decade ago they were emerging from the Oberliga. They are surprise challengers for an automatic promotion spot, but their away form of late doesn't inspire confidence. The Iron Ones have won just two of their last six away games, and they have suffered a recent 2-0 defeat at promotion rivals Hannover.</div>
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Stuttgart are in form, they get amazing home support, and they are facing a Union side that has only taken four points from the last four games. I'm backing the hosts.</div>
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Recommended Bet <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; outline-color: initial; outline-width: initial; transition: color 0.2s;">Back Stuttgart to win at <span class="inline-odds" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; outline: none; padding: 0px 2px 1px; position: relative; transition: color 0.2s;" title="10/11">1.93</div>
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