AFL Preview: Essendon v Collingwood

Essendon v Collingwood
Tuesday 3:20pm at MCG

The loser of this one will not be playing finals in 2017 

Form

Essendon were out-ran, out-classed and out-played across the park by Adelaide last week. Surprisingly, the Bombers had 58 more uncontested possessions than the Crows though it was their slow ball movement and turnovers, which really cost them. The Bombers turned it over 82 times against the Crows and when the Crows got the ball, they went at a high 77% efficiency rating. The Bombers will need to improve their skills with the ball if they are to get a win here on ANZAC Day.

The Pies were heavily backed last week, with the line moving from -1.5 to -10.5, which was one of the biggest moves of the round. Unfortunately for the punters, the move didn’t pay off with the Saints running out 14-point winners. The Pies had an inside 50 differential of -16 and allowed the Saints to have 41 more marks than them in a performance that lacked any real effort. More disturbingly, the Pies were out-tackled by 31 and only laid 56 for the match. Compare this to the previous week against the Swans were the Pies managed 115 tackles; the steep decline is of great concern.

Stats That Matter

• Collingwood have won 6 of the last 9 against Essendon at a POT of 20%
• 6 of the last 9 matches have gone under the game total
• Collingwood have won 4 of the past 5 ANZAC Day clashes
• 4 of the last 5 ANZAC Day matches have finished under the game total
• Collingwood are 0-4 straight up in their last 4 daytime matches at the MCG
• 4 of the last 5 daytime matches at the MCG involving Collingwood have finished under the game total
• Collingwood have conceded an average of 113.66 points per game in their last 3 daytime matches at the MCG
• Essendon have won 9 of their last 20 daytime matches at the MCG at a POT of 82%
• Essendon average just 78.7 points per game in their last 20 daytime matches at the MCG

Betting Data

2017 Line: Essendon 2-2, Collingwood 2-2
2017 Over/Under: Essendon 3-1, Collingwood 1-3

What To Expect

Coach Worsfold told the media after his sides heavy defeat to Adelaide that his side had ‘hit a wall’ in their match against Adelaide. Luckily for the Bombers they have a 10-day break to prepare for this clash and should have no trouble lifting for the ANZAC Day occasion. The Bombers should fancy themselves to score a few points against a Pies defence that has leaked 113.6 points per game in their last 3 daytime matches at the MCG. If they are to do this, Hooker and particularly Daniher are going to have to kick straight to help apply scoreboard pressure.

The Wolf is finding it difficult to predict which Pies team will show up on Tuesday. 2 weeks ago they laid 115 tackles against the Swans but last week managed only 56 for the match. Given the ANZAC Day occasion, we can expect the Pies of 2 weeks ago to show up here and lift their tackling pressure. With recent history suggesting a low scoring affair and both teams struggling so far in 2017 to put on scoreboard pressure, the Wolf will be on the unders in this one.

How Its Shaping Up

Essendon By 6

Recommended Bet

Best: Under 180.5 Total Game Score ($1.88)

Player Markets

These two sides have a combined 8 players averaging over 100 fantasy points per game in 2017, with 6 of these 8 players averaging over 110. Based on these stats it’s fair to say that this game will be a fantasy point feast. Zach Merrett is in fine form again in 2017 after is brilliant 2016 averaging 33.3 disposals, 5.5 marks, 4.8 tackles and 125 points per game. His recent record against the Pies however is not fantastic as he scored just 66 on them last year.

For the Pies, their entire midfield continues to find plenty of the ball. Out of all the stars however, it has been Taylor Adams that has been the most consistent performer to date. Adams averages 32 disposals, 4.3 marks, 8.3 tackles and 123.5 fantasy points per game so far in 2017. His recent record against the Bombers is equally superb. In his last 3 against the Bombers he averages 32.7 disposals, 7 marks, 3.7 tackles and 120.7 fantasy points. The Wolf will be all over Adams here to have another big game.

Recommended Bet
Prop: Taylor Adams 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.50)