Reading 1.94 v Wigan 4.30; The Draw 3.65

This is a match between two clubs with still something to play for, but while Wigan's need is far more greater than Reading's admittedly, I'm genuinely amazed that the Royals can be backed at 1.94 to win.

But then this is by no means the first time I've been surprised by Reading's price this season, as regular readers will know. A lot of big-hitting Betfairians out there obviously don't rate them, but I don't know why.

Jaap Stam's men are fourth in the table, which is 19 places and 38 points above Wigan, and they go into this game on the back of five wins in their last seven matches. And they're at home too. I fully expected them to be trading at 1.60.

Reading's play-off place is not yet guaranteed. Their goal difference is by far the worst of the clubs that can overtake them so if they were to lose their last two matches, Leeds were to win their last two, and Sheff Wed and Fulham picked up at least one and three points respectively, then Stam's men would lose out.

The above sequence of results are very unlikely I agree, but the fact is Reading still require at least a point to be guaranteed of a play-off place and there's no way they won't be trying their hardest to win Saturday's match. Finishing third or fourth is also a huge advantage, so Reading still have a lot to gain by winning this game.

Wigan need to win, anything less will mean they are relegated, so yes, they'll be busting a gut to get all three points also. But the reality is that they're a very poor side and are almost certain to be relegated for a reason.

The Latics have lost five of their last eight and I think a price of 1.94 about a home win is simply too big.

Recommended Bets
Back Reading to Win @ 1.94
 (best bet)

Fulham 1.54 v Brentford 6.60; The Draw 4.80

Our Over 3.5 Goals wager in the Huddersfield v Fulham game last week was never really in doubt from the moment the Terriers took an early lead. The Cottagers replied with four goals of their own before half time!

I expect a similar outcome here between two free-scoring sides, with Fulham desperate for the three points that, because of their goal difference, will guarantee them a slot in the end of season play-offs.

Slavisa Jokanovic's men have been in fine form too, winning their last four Championship games, but the most notable factor about their recent results is the amount of goals that have been scored. Incredibly, eight of Fulham's last nine games have featured at least four goals, and 11 of their last 12 have resulted in both teams getting on the scoresheet.

On Saturday Fulham host a Brentford team that has enjoyed a terrific season thanks largely to their form at Griffin Park. They're still a very decent side on their travels and can score plenty when on song, like the 5-3 win at Burton recently for example, but now that they have absolutely nothing to play for I'm expecting a comfortable home victory.

Odds of 1.54 about that home win don't make massive appeal however, so we'll try and squeeze a bit more out of a Fulham triumph by backing the game to witness at least three goals also.

Recommended Bets
Back Fulham Win/Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5

Leeds 2.24 v Norwich 3.40; The Draw 3.75

Leeds only have themselves to blame for the fact that a play-off place is no longer in their own hands, but they need to regroup knowing that with Sheffield Wednesday and Fulham playing each other next week, two victories will give them an outstanding chance of breaking back into the top six.

Garry Monk's men have surprisingly lost four of their last six, just when it looked like they were certainties to book a play-off place. Their latest defeats to Wolves and Burton were particularly disappointing, but they at least now know that only wins will do this week and next.

That means that Leeds simply have to go for it against Norwich, and therefore we should expect quite an entertaining game, and hopefully at least three goals.

The Canaries have been involved in some high-scoring games of late, most notably in a 7-1 win over Reading, and 3-0 and 3-1 defeats to Huddersfield and Fulham respectively. It's perhaps no coincidence that those three rivals were all chasing points and the matches ended up being open, entertaining affairs.

None of the play-off chasing clubs need the points more than Leeds this weekend, it really is last chance saloon; fail to win and they'll be a Championship side for another season at least. So it's impossible not to see Monk's men go for the win at some stage.

Norwich are a very good side however, with recent wins over Reading, Preston, and Brighton filling them with confidence ahead of their trip to Elland Road. It promises to be a ding dong battle between two of the best teams in the division, and given the circumstances I'd be very surprised if we don't witness at least three goals.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80

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