West Brom v Leicester: Faltering hosts open door for Foxes to make successful raid

West Brom v Leicester
Saturday 29 April, 15:00

West Brom

The Baggies are eighth on 44 points, having stopped almost stone dead since reaching the 40-point mark seven matches ago. Their record since then is W1 D1 L5 and they have scored in just one of those games, the 3-1 home win over Arsenal.

West Brom did not play in midweek but Matt Phillips and Hal Robson-Kanu both picked up hamstring injuries in training and are major doubts. Chris Brunt or James McLean are the options to replace Phillips, while Salomon Rondon is set to come back in as chief striker even though he hasn't scored in more than four months.

Leicester

Last season's champions lost 1-0 to a late goal at Arsenal on Wednesday night and are still not quite safe in 15th place on 37 points, six clear of the relegation zone, albeit with a game in hand against every team from 11th to 19th.

Leicester boss Craig Shakespeare is hopeful club captain Wes Morgan will be available after a hamstring injury.

Match Odds

The poor record of Tony Pulis teams once they reach 40 points has been highlighted in recent weeks, and West Brom's form has added further weight to that argument. The Pulis stats after reaching 40 points (with all his Premier League teams) now stands at W6 D16 L19 - an extremely low win rate.

The only points West Brom have taken in their last seven games came against Arsenal (3-1 at home) and Manchester United (0-0 away), which hints that they will raise their game now only against the big teams. Even so, they lost 1-0 at home to Liverpool last weekend.

Leicester's form has also dipped a little, possibly a sign that the initial boost from Shakespeare's elevation to manager is wearing off. The Foxes won their first six games in all competitions for the new boss but are winless in five since then (W0 D2 L3).

As with Claudio Ranieri, the home form has been strong (W5 D1 L0) under Shakespeare but the away form less good, with the only victory on the road being the 3-2 at out-of-form West Ham in Shakespeare's first away game.

The only teams to shut out Shakespeare's Leicester, however, have been Atletico Madrid and Arsenal (both 1-0 away defeats) and West Brom's recent scoring record indicates the visitors will have a good chance here if they get on the scoresheet.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

This is a difficult market to weigh up, although under 2.5 goals looks the way to go now that West Brom have virtually stopped scoring. Five of their seven games since reaching 40 points have had under 2.5 goals.

Against that, the Baggies' home games had been entertaining up that point, with seven out of 10 against teams outside the big six having had over 2.5 goals. If they suddenly spark back to life, a similar outcome would not be out of the question.

Five of Leicester's eight Premier League games under Shakespeare have gone over 2.5 goals (including all three away). The exceptions were two home games where the opposition were shut out and Wednesday's 1-0 loss at Arsenal, the only match under Shakespeare where they haven't scored.

Draw No Bet

With Leicester's only defeat against domestic opposition under Shakespeare being against Arsenal, this might be the best option in a match where West Brom's commitment is in some doubt.

Across the whole season, Leicester have a low defeat rate when scoring (especially against teams below the big six) and even one goal here would make them hard to stop.

Ref Watch

The soon-to-depart Mark Clattenburg takes charge here for one of his last Premier League games. This is his fourth West Brom home match of the season and the previous three have had bookings points of 30, 0 and 20.

Recommended Bet
Back Leicester on Draw No Bet at 2.10