AFL Preview: Blues v Swans

Blues v Swans
Saturday 2:10pm at MCG

With just one win between them through five rounds, the desperation stakes are high for both the Blues and the Swans in this one.

FormCarlton have managed just a single win all season – an upset win over Essendon in Round 3 – which was sandwiched between four losses of 22 points or more. The Blues have not cracked 90 in five games. Carlton have conceded 130-plus on two occasions this year and rank bottom three in both attack and defence.

Things could not be going worse for the Swans, who are winless through five games for the first time since 1993. The Swans have been beaten by more than three goals in four of their five clashes while they have not surpassed 87 points all season. They rank bottom four in scoring and an un-Swans like 12^th in defence. They are the only team without a cover in 2017.

Stats That Matter

• Sydney have won seven straight against Carlton and 21 of the last 24 with six of the last seven being by margins of 22 or greater
• The Blues have covered two of the last three against the Swans
• Two of the last three Carlton-Sydney games have gone over the total
• This is the first Sydney-Carlton game at the MCG since 1986
• The Swans have covered just 5 of their last 14 at the MCG including just 1 of 6 as a favourite at the ground
• Carlton have covered 12 of their last 18 at the MCG with four outright wins of $3.00 or bigger over that span
• Carlton are 14-4 ATS since 2012 at the MCG when getting a start of three goals or more
• Carlton are 3-1 ATS since 2012 at the MCG when getting a start of five goals or more
• The Blues have played opponents with a combined 14-11 record, the Swans 16-9
• The Swans are 18-11 ATS as interstate favourites of 10 or greater but are just 5-6 ATS as an interstate favourite of 35 or more
• Non-interstate double digit underdogs who were kept to 50 or lower are 43-25 ATS since 2012

Betting Data2017 Line: Carlton 2-3, Sydney 0-5
2017 Over-Under: Carlton 3-2, Sydney 2-3

What To ExpectChips in the Carlton plus in what looks the best of the week. The Blues are a different team at the MCG and this is a ground the Swans traditionally struggle at. The Blues have covered 14 of their last 18 at the MCG getting a start of three goals or more and the Swans have covered just one of their last six at the venue as a favourite. Class should probably prevail in the end but this one won’t get out of hand.

How It’s Shaping UpSydney by 14

Recommended Bet

Best: Carlton +36.5 ($1.90)

Player Markets

Patrick Cripps was arguably Carlton’s best in the bad defeat to Port last week with 37 possessions. He tends to bunch his big possession games together. In the backend of last year, he had five 30-plus touch games in his last six. He should be a magnet for it on Saturday.

Recommended Bet

Prop: Patrick Cripps 30+ Disposals ($1.95)