South Sydney Rabbitohs v Manly Sea Eagles
Friday, April 28, 6pm (AEST), Allianz Stadium, Sydney
It was a case of third time lucky as Dylan Walker booted the Sea Eagles to a shock 20-18 win over the Raiders in Canberra last week. Walker had missed two relatively easy shots at goal, before nailing a 40m penalty goal to give the Sea Eagles a thrilling golden-point win. The Rabbitohs had plenty go against them in last week’s one-point loss to Broncos and will be hoping the 50/50 calls from the officials go in their favour this week. Rabbitohs forward George Burgess is in the bad books again, this time for a shoulder charge, and will miss four weeks after taking an early guilty plea. The Rabbitohs will also be sweating on the fitness of halfback Adam Reynolds after he was ruled out with a hip injury in the lead-up to last week’s match against the Broncos. Keep an eye on team news.
History
Souths have won 5 of the last 7 against Manly dating back to 2014 while 9 of the last 12 have totalled 36 or fewer. The Rabbitohs thumped the Sea Eagles 38-18 back in Round 2, with Alex Johnston crossing for a double. Manly have won three straight at Allianz while they have gone 6-3 under at the ground since 2013.
Souths have won 5 of the last 7 against Manly dating back to 2014 while 9 of the last 12 have totalled 36 or fewer. The Rabbitohs thumped the Sea Eagles 38-18 back in Round 2, with Alex Johnston crossing for a double. Manly have won three straight at Allianz while they have gone 6-3 under at the ground since 2013.
Form
South Sydney turned in a vastly improved performance in a 25-24 defeat at home to Brisbane but they are now 3-5 and have lost four of their last five. Defence has been the Bunnies’ main concern, conceding 18 points in all eight matches. Manly stunned the Raiders in Canberra with a 20-18 golden point win to take their record to 4-4. The Sea Eagles are a perfect 4-0 away from Brookvale this year conceding an average of 9.5 points in those matches.
South Sydney turned in a vastly improved performance in a 25-24 defeat at home to Brisbane but they are now 3-5 and have lost four of their last five. Defence has been the Bunnies’ main concern, conceding 18 points in all eight matches. Manly stunned the Raiders in Canberra with a 20-18 golden point win to take their record to 4-4. The Sea Eagles are a perfect 4-0 away from Brookvale this year conceding an average of 9.5 points in those matches.
Key Matchup
Sam Burgess v Jake Trbojevic. Burgess has long been the enforcer of the Rabbitohs pack throughout his time in the NRL and his job became that much more difficult, with the suspension of his brother George. He played the full 80 minutes against the Broncos and led the way with 17 runs for 172 metres and 33 tackles. The problem is that he can’t do it all on his own. Trbojevic is a future NSW Origin star in the making and has the best tackling technique in the game, chopping down his opponents at will. Like Burgess, Trbojevic played the 84 minutes (including golden-point) and was heavily involved with 18 runs for 157 metres and 1 try. The Wolf is looking forward to these two pairing off!
Sam Burgess v Jake Trbojevic. Burgess has long been the enforcer of the Rabbitohs pack throughout his time in the NRL and his job became that much more difficult, with the suspension of his brother George. He played the full 80 minutes against the Broncos and led the way with 17 runs for 172 metres and 33 tackles. The problem is that he can’t do it all on his own. Trbojevic is a future NSW Origin star in the making and has the best tackling technique in the game, chopping down his opponents at will. Like Burgess, Trbojevic played the 84 minutes (including golden-point) and was heavily involved with 18 runs for 157 metres and 1 try. The Wolf is looking forward to these two pairing off!
Stats That Matter
South Sydney are 4-4 ATS with a 4-4 total record while Manly are 5-3 ATS with a 5-3 under record. Souths have won 5 of the last 7 against Manly dating back to 2014 while 9 of the last 12 have totalled 36 or fewer. Manly have won three straight at Allianz while they have gone 6-3 under at the ground since 2013 while Souths have covered just 1 of their last 5 at the ground. The Sea Eagles have covered 7 of their last 9 away from Brookvale while they have gone under in six straight away from Brookvale after scoring 20-plus.
South Sydney are 4-4 ATS with a 4-4 total record while Manly are 5-3 ATS with a 5-3 under record. Souths have won 5 of the last 7 against Manly dating back to 2014 while 9 of the last 12 have totalled 36 or fewer. Manly have won three straight at Allianz while they have gone 6-3 under at the ground since 2013 while Souths have covered just 1 of their last 5 at the ground. The Sea Eagles have covered 7 of their last 9 away from Brookvale while they have gone under in six straight away from Brookvale after scoring 20-plus.
Final Thoughts
Not many teams go to Canberra as 12-point underdogs and leave the nation’s capital with the two competition points like the Sea Eagles did. Manly is a much better side than the one that was thumped by 20 points against the Rabbitohs in Round 2 and there’s no doubt coach Trent Barrett will remind them of this effort through the week. There won’t be much in this one, but the form of the Trbojevic brothers and the uncertainty surrounding Reynolds, sways this one in favour of the Sea Eagles.
Not many teams go to Canberra as 12-point underdogs and leave the nation’s capital with the two competition points like the Sea Eagles did. Manly is a much better side than the one that was thumped by 20 points against the Rabbitohs in Round 2 and there’s no doubt coach Trent Barrett will remind them of this effort through the week. There won’t be much in this one, but the form of the Trbojevic brothers and the uncertainty surrounding Reynolds, sways this one in favour of the Sea Eagles.
How It’s Shaping Up
Manly by 4
Manly by 4
Best Bet
Manly 1-12 ($3.10)
Manly 1-12 ($3.10)
Other Recommended Bets
First Half Margin – Manly 1-8 ($3.30)
First Half Margin – Manly 1-8 ($3.30)
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