AFL Preview: Lions v Power

Lions v Power
Saturday 4:35pm at Gabba

Pre-season wooden spoon favourites Brisbane continue to struggle while Port Adelaide have shown they can match it with the cream of the AFL.

FormAfter a surprise Round 1 win over the Gold Coast, Brisbane have dropped their last four all by margins of 27 or more. Their Gabba form has not been outstanding with two losses of 27 and 52 points respectively to Essendon and Richmond. Defence has been the primary issue for Chris Fagan’s team with the Lions ranking second last in points conceded.

Port Adelaide have been ticking over nicely with three wins from their five games with their two defeats coming at the hands of Adelaide (5-0) and GWS (4-1). Two of the Power wins this season have been by margins of 80-plus. Port rank Top 4 in both attack and defence so are arguably travelling better than their 3-2 record suggests.

Stats That Matter

• Port Adelaide have won 4 of the last 5 games against Brisbane with the Power surpassing 136 in the last three of those wins.
• The Lions have won 3 of the last 4 clashes against Port at the Gabba
• The over has hit in 3 of the last 4 Power-Lions games
• Brisbane have covered just 1 of their last 8 at the Gabba
• The over has hit in 9 of the last 10 Gabba matches when the Lions have got a start of 18 or more
• Port have the best interstate cover record since 2012 with a 33-23 ATS record while they are one of just four teams with a positive POT when crossing state boarders
• The Power have covered 4 of their last 5 as an interstate favourite
• The under is 15-10 when Port are interstate favourites
• Interstate double digit favourites off wins of 80-plus cover at 67%
• The Lions have played teams with a combined record of 15-10, the Power 13-12
• Port have covered 4 of their last 6 after keeping opponents to 50 or fewer
• The Lions have covered just 15 of their last 37 after conceding 120 or more
• The over hits in 65% of matches after the Lions concede 120

Betting Data2017 Line: Brisbane 3-2, Port Adelaide 3-2
2017 Over-Under: Brisbane 2-3, Port Adelaide 4-1

What To ExpectPort Adelaide have been better than their record shows with their two defeats coming against two very good teams. In their other three matches they have annihilated their opposition and they look set to do the same here in a match where the minus and over both look to be value. The Lions typically struggle to bounce back from a poor defensive display and against the attacking juggernaut that is Port, they look hard up against it.

How It’s Shaping UpPort Adelaide by 53

Recommended Bet

Best: Port Adelaide -24.5 ($1.90)

Player Markets

Ollie Wines is enjoying a breakout year with four games topping 30 touches including a 35-disposal game last round in the demolition of Carlton. Last season Wines had 30 and 32 touches in his two matches with the Lions. He has a monster game on the cards here.

Recommended Bet

Prop: Ollie Wines 35+ Disposals ($4.00)