AFL Preview: Richmond v Melbourne

Richmond v Melbourne
Monday 7:25pm at MCG

The Dees will be relying on a terrific recent record against the Tigers to get an unlikely win here 

Form

Richmond is one of the hottest teams in the AFL at present as they are not only 4-0 straight up, but also 4-0 ATS in a terrific start to 2017. The Tigers were dominant from start to finish against the Lions last week, leading at every change to run away 52-point winners. They had a disposal efficiency of 75% and an intercept possession differential of +19, which set up the win. They were thoroughly beaten however in all clearances, going down 43-30 against a Stef Martin led Lions midfield. They will need to improve this against the Dees this week.

The Dees were one of the more disappointing sides of round 4 going down at home to a travelling Fremantle side. The Dees led by 21 points at half time before running out of legs and going down by 3 thanks to a late Cam McCarthy goal. The Dees won just about every major stat category including disposals, contested possessions and marks but overused the ball on too many occasions.

Stats That Matter

• Melbourne are 3 from 6 straight up against Richmond with a POT of 70%
• Melbourne are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against Richmond
• The game total has finished under in 5 of the last 6 meetings
• Melbourne have won the last 3 against Richmond, all of which they started as outsiders ($2.20, $3.30 and $4.70)
• Melbourne have won the last 2 night games against Richmond at the MCG at a POT of 175%

Betting Data

2017 Line: Richmond 4-0, Melbourne 1-3
2017 Over/Under: Richmond 1-3, Melbourne 3-1

What To Expect

On 2017 form alone we would expect the Tigers to run away with this one against the Dees. Recent history between these two however tells a different story with some of the best recent wins for the Dees coming against the Tigers as big underdogs. The Dees enter this game again as underdogs, and if history is to repeat for a 4^th straight time, they will get the 4 points. Richmond’s small forwards have been a shining light so far in 2017 with Butler, Rioli and Castagna all causing opposition defence’s headaches. They should be looking forward to this match as last week the Demons allowed Fremantle’s small forwards in Crozier and midfielder turned forward Lachie Neale to 7 goals combined. Star forward Jesse Hogan returns for Melbourne after 2 weeks suspension and his presence immediately takes the heat off Jack Watts who has been playing as their key forward and second ruck in recent weeks. The Wolf cannot look past the recent history between these sides and will be taking the Dees to cause an upset on Monday night.

How Its Shaping Up

Melbourne By 2

Recommended Bet

Best: Melbourne +5.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets

Shaun Grigg was the only Tigers player to crack the fantasy ton with 113 points as they looked to share the load last week against Brisbane. Martin (63 points), Cotchin (70 points) were both well below there usual output and the Wolf thinks Coach Hardwick was resting these players forward more than usual and saving them for this weeks match.

The young Melbourne midfield has had to step up in the absence of Lewis and now Gawn and they have done well to date. Clayton Oliver is averaging over 31 disposals per game this season and young Alex Neal Bullen has taken his game to a whole new level in 2017 averaging 101.7 fantasy points per game.

The Wolf is expecting Viney to go to Martin and Jones to Cotchin meaning they should curb any big influence from each other, so that will leave Grigg outside to again rack up plenty of the pill. With an average of 95.3 points in his last 4 against Melbourne, we can expect Grigg to crack the fantasy ton again this week.

Recommended Bet
Prop: Shaun Grigg 100+ Fantasy Points ($1.95)