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International Champions Cup: Sunday Matches

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Chelsea v Inter – Sat 9:35pm AEST</div>
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This will be the Blues last hit out before the Charity Shield clash against Arsenal while Inter face a very short turn around with just two days off following a clash with Bayern Munich. They did manage to beat Lyon thanks to a late Jovetic goal but holding out the likes of Bayern and Chelsea is a whole new ball game. Bayern made some statement in their win over Chelsea and it was the response Ancelotti was after following a 4-0 loss to AC Milan. Ribery and Muller ran riot in the opening half hour to give the German side an unassailable 3-0 lead. David Luiz and Morato looked much better in the second half while Kante logged the full 90 minutes. We have seen more than our fair share of upsets throughout the tournament but there will not be one here. This is Chelsea’s last chance to get it right before they battle for an early season trophy and The Wolf is expecting Conte’s side to be on song.</div>
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Best Bet: Chelsea WIN ($1.72)</div>
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Value: Win Both Halves – Chelsea ($4.20)</div>
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Man City v Tottenham – Sun 8:00am AEST</div>
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Two EPL giants go to battle in what promises to be a high scoring encounter. Spurs have now scored multiple goals in their last 6 matches dating back to the tail end of the Premier League season while Man City were rampant in a 4-0 win over Real Madrid. Tottenham have been the genuine entertainers of the pre season with at least 5 goals being scored in each of their last three fixtures. It should come as no surprise after they closed out the EPL season with 6-1 and 7-1 wins over Leicester and Hull. City’s win over Real Madrid with give them a tonne of confidence despite the match being a pre season contest. The ICC matches have been extremely competitive and the intensity is there to be seen. With most players generally getting 45 minutes we are seeing a fast tempo with all the teams pushing numbers forward at every opportunity. there will be no exception in this one and The Wolf is expecting a handful of goals.</div>
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Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals</div>
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Value: Over 3.5 goals </div>
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Real Madrid v Barcelona – Sun 9:30am AEST</div>
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El Clasico in July – YES PLEASE! Barcelona were in complete control against Man Utd in the first half of what ended as a 1-0 win. Neymar, Surarez and Messi put on a clinic with the Catalan club starving the Red Devils of possession for a good 15 minute stretch. United showed glimpses on the counter early but once Barca took control they showed very little. Valverde played a separate 11 in the second half while Mourinho played Pogba, Rashford and Lukaku for all 90 minutes in an attempt to salvage something. Real Madrid on the other hand are coming off an embarrassing loss. They conceded 3 goals in the space of 15 minutes against Man City. They lacked fluency with their passing and with no Ronaldo in the side they were clearly missing that clinical finish up front. Wolfy is surprised to see Barca as outsiders.</div>
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Best: Barcelona WIN ($2.50)</div>
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Value: Barcelona 2-0 ($19.00)</div>
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International Champions Cup: Sunday Matches

Chelsea v Inter – Sat 9:35pm AEST This will be the Blues last hit out before the Charity Shield clash against Arsenal while Inter face ...

19:35

Mayweather Jr v McGregor: Why The Notorious can cause a major shock

Where it all began 
 
Prior to entering the world of MMA in 2006, McGregor had in fact been boxing for around three years, competing in close to 40 fights and picked up a Dublin Novice Championship in the process. He trained at Crumlin Boxing Club which has launched the careers of some of Ireland's most celebrated fighters, not least Olympic Gold Medallist Katie Taylor. McGregor's amateur record obviously pales in comparison to the 49 pro victories that Mayweather has clocked up but the key is that his primary fighting background isn't in mixed martial arts but in boxing and this is reflected in the fact that seven of his ten UFC victories have come by way of knockout. The power of his striking really shouldn't be underestimated; McGregor to win by KO/TKO is 5/1. 
 
The fight may already have been won 
 
In 2015, McGregor embarked on a round-the-world press tour before his title bout with Jose Aldo; those who witnessed any of these knew exactly what to expect from Conor this time round in the recent pre-fight shows. That psychological onslaught pushed Aldo, seemingly unbeatable at the time, to the absolute edge. The fight was first delayed due to a contentious injury Aldo picked up in sparring before he was then eventually knocked out by McGregor in 13 seconds; McGregor to win the fight in 60 seconds is 40/1. 
 
Gennady Golovkin's coach, Abel Sanchez, recently gave his thoughts on the bout and underlined the point that Conor needs to make Floyd "uncomfortable" in the hope that he makes a mistake. On that basis, 'The Notorious One' may already have the fight wrapped up. 
 
The tactical edge 
 
Confidence in a McGregor victory has been hard to find but his most recent knockout victim, Eddie Alvarez, was surprisingly positive. He highlighted the need for Conor to keep his hands busy in the early rounds and no-one knows his punching power better than someone that's felt it first-hand. It's also worth noting that the Irishman holds a marked size advantage over Mayweather and Floyd has often struggled against southpaw fighters, not to mention McGregor's likely unorthodox in-ring movement. 
 
Much has been made of the 11 year age gap between the fighters but stamina has been an Achilles heel for McGregor in the Octagon and was cited as the main reason behind his defeat to Nate Diaz. If the fight goes beyond the first four or five rounds it undoubtedly plays into Mayweather's favour even more, so focus on McGregor to win in Round 1-3 at 10/1. 
 
Recommended Bets 
McGregor to win by KO/TKO @ 5/1 
McGregor to win in Round 1-3 @ 10/1 
£7.5m already bet on fight with a month still to go 
 
Katie Baylis, Betfair Spokesperson, said: “It’s now a month until one of the most anticipated fights in recent memory, and we have seen a phenomenal amount of money already bet, with £7.5m bet on the outcome alone. 
 
“Floyd Mayweather Jr may be the hot 1/6 favourite, with Conor McGregor at 6/1, but while almost 80% of the money is for Mayweather, 40% of bets are actually on McGregor to cause what would be a monumental upset, with 34% on the favoured Mayweather and 26% on the draw. 
 
“The biggest single bet was £100k on Mayweather Jr at the start of the month when his odds were around 1/5 and we expect to see plenty more bets of this nature as we get closer to the fight that we predict will be the biggest boxing betting event in Betfair Exchange history.” 
 
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG_ePtnF9AnADiIa8f5ofcP98Suqkz4xesaR0r3I2c1-pX_6BGCPz0oJPj0GsQzItiokB4RYD-vsa-qhCqjmI9n4GfpVUGDDFVxwdTnCdcRauD1gPDmkPU05jto_u1Y617aZ370TTl4zQ/s1600/050916-sports-conor-mcgregor-floyd-mayweather.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG_ePtnF9AnADiIa8f5ofcP98Suqkz4xesaR0r3I2c1-pX_6BGCPz0oJPj0GsQzItiokB4RYD-vsa-qhCqjmI9n4GfpVUGDDFVxwdTnCdcRauD1gPDmkPU05jto_u1Y617aZ370TTl4zQ/s640/050916-sports-conor-mcgregor-floyd-mayweather.jpg" width="640" /></a>

Mayweather Jr v McGregor: Why The Notorious can cause a major shock

Where it all began Prior to entering the world of MMA in 2006, McGregor had in fact been boxing for around three years, competing in close...

19:29

Carl Frampton v Andres Gutierrez: Back The Jackal to stop dangerous Mexican

Carl Frampton v Andres Gutierrez 
Saturday, 22:00 
Live on Five 
 
The Jackal promised fans he would bring big fights back to his home town, and he's done exactly that here. 
 
On paper, Frampton vs Guttierrez looks an even match up, with both men losing only once before, but layers are having none of it, pricing the local hero as a convincing favourite at just 1.07. 
 
If you too fancy a Frampton win, there's not an awful lot to get excited about in the match odds betting, so we need to dig a bit deeper for a share of value. 
 
Thirty-year-old Frampton lost his first professional fight in 24 outings last time, going down to old rival Leo Santa Cruz on a majority decision. The Brit dropped his WBA world title in the process, and to make matters worse, it came by the tightest of margins, a majority decision on the scorecards. One judge sat ringside at the MGM Grand back in January called the bout a draw, his two colleagues giving it to Cruz by just two rounds. 
 
Tough, but considering Frampton did the same to Cruz the time before, perhaps it was a little easier to get over and pick out the positives from his effort. Last year, Frampton again put his title on the line in America, this time getting the nod over Santa Cruz in a majority - draw, four rounds and six rounds the difference that night. 
 
Both previous meetings of Frampton and Cruz have been agonisingly close, and with the score sitting at 1-1, we simply have to have the trilogy. Fans want it, the fighters want it and, of course, the game's money men would love it. If that decider is to happen, Frampton has to win here, and convincingly too. This is little more than a bout to keep him warm in the meantime, but lose this and The Jackal will have no right to call on a third with Santa Cruz. 
 
Mexican Andres Gutierrez is no mere opponent either; when Frampton said he didn't want to cut corners in his comeback, he wasn't kidding. The away fighter brings a record of 35 wins against one loss and a draw. Just to make things more interesting, his sole defeat also came on a majority points decision, against Cristian Mijares in Mexico for the WBC Silver last summer. 
 
Gutierrez, 24, got back on track with a sixth round TKO win over Wallington Orobio last time, a bout he was expected to win, but did so convincingly. Betfair Sportsbook has the upset at 10/1, while there's 15.00 currently going around on the Exchange on victory for Andres. 
 
A Frampton win looks nailed on here and, although this should be closer than the betting suggests, I do think the favourite will get the desired result. Each of The Jackal's last three wins have all come on points, and that's the way the market expects this to go, but I'm taking the value about a KO/TKO win. Back it at anything better than 2.50 when the market becomes liquid. 
 
Gutierrez has boxed at super bantamweight for a large part of his career. Against a strong, relentless featherweight, cheered on by a fiercely loyal support, the man in the away corner will soon find out he's in for a tough night. 
 
Recommended Bet 
Back Carl Frampton to beat Andres Gutierrez via KO/TKO at 2.50 or better 
 
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwW9FaeqWWCAS1t3qFWy4Nnskp6gp8dWGrfJQPf9gqrpugKj7dOOkpnMC7JTxKyBRm_PSea0N1Y6669WDJwIC3SK3Mg9TC9Z-lLvCifAVK5WPRo5nu5JM48y0RsWq6RddfFIWv5JlzK1o/s1600/Boxer-Carl-Frampton-Public-Training-3_-Lewis.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1009" data-original-width="1600" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwW9FaeqWWCAS1t3qFWy4Nnskp6gp8dWGrfJQPf9gqrpugKj7dOOkpnMC7JTxKyBRm_PSea0N1Y6669WDJwIC3SK3Mg9TC9Z-lLvCifAVK5WPRo5nu5JM48y0RsWq6RddfFIWv5JlzK1o/s640/Boxer-Carl-Frampton-Public-Training-3_-Lewis.jpg" width="640" /></a>

Carl Frampton v Andres Gutierrez: Back The Jackal to stop dangerous Mexican

Carl Frampton v Andres Gutierrez Saturday, 22:00 Live on Five The Jackal promised fans he would bring big fights back to his home town, ...

19:24

Premier League Relegation: Starless Stoke look set to struggle

When deciding upon my Fantasy Football team ahead of the new season - by the way you can read some good columns about FF right here at betting.betfair - I start by looking at which teams have easy or hard fixtures in the first couple of months. My next step is to go through each team with a kind early fixture list and make a note of players that might be of interest to make my shortlist. 
 
By the time I'd gone through Stoke's squad, no-one had made it, probably the first time that's ever happened. 
 
 
Big names out the door 
 
Jon Walters, a mainstay for the Republic of Ireland side with his aggression, ability to play in different roles and reliability from the penalty spot has moved on to Burnley, where he's likely to be an important player for the Clarets. 
 
Then there's Marko Arnautovic. A frustrating performer who can blow hot and cold - much like a Riyad Mahrez or a Ross Barkley - but undoubtedly a player with the X-factor. With huge upper body strength, vision and natural talent he can create as well as destroy. It's hard to turn down an offer of around £20 million from West Ham when you're Stoke, the player didn't cost much to start with and is happy to move on for bigger wages at a club in the capital with a higher profile. But he's left a big gap nonetheless. 
 
Glenn Whelan has also signed for Aston Villa, though that's arguably less of a major loss. 
 
Add to that the fact that Wilfried Bony, a player who has been out of sorts for the last three years or so but still has huge potential won't be returning for a second stint and the question Stoke fans will be asking themselves is: when will it end? Or perhaps: we can see who's going out... but who exactly is coming in? 
 
 
Signings have been thin on the ground 
 
At the moment the list is limited to Kurt Zouma, an excellent defender albeit one who's hardly played for a year and Josh Hyman, who joined from Hull having made just five senior appearances his whole career. 
 
Now, I'm not suggesting that a side who doesn't have any players making my Fantasy Football team is destined for relegation. Bournemouth and Burnley players didn't make my team at any stage last season either and ended up being just fine. 
 
And to stretch the argument to another sport- Northamptonshire's T20 side is the ultimate band of misfits where the only 'star' at all is once-England man Ben Duckett- yet they've won two of the last four editions of the T20 Blast. All good examples of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. 
 
But what I am saying is that in the absence of any stars beyond the mercurial Shaqiri and the reliable Joe Allen, I'm not sure the remainder of the squad is any great shakes. How long can Peter Crouch, Darren Fletcher and to a lesser extent Ryan Shawcross and Glen Johnson be expected to carry on performing at this level? 
 
Will Jack Butland and Saido Beharino ever return to the form of two years ago? Mark Hughes claims that he's on the lookout for replacements but despite some glitzy names joining the Potters over the past few years, moving a top-class player to the city of Stoke isn't the easiest of tasks in football. 
 
Personally, I can't see the likes of Alex Oxlaide-Chamberlain making the move there. Let's wait and see.  
 
Odds don't reflect Stoke's chances of staying up 
 
The point though, as illustrated very eloquently by Ed Hawkins (in this case about cricket but it can extend to any sport) isn't so much: will Stoke be relegated? But rather: should Stoke be 7.40 to be relegated? The answer must be no. 
 
Though the three seasons between 2013 and 2016 saw consecutive ninth-placed finishes, Stoke slid to 13th last year. They look like a team that's regressing and those high-profile exits may just be the turning point. 
 
 
The field 
 
Brighton (2.36) were highly impressive last season and in Chris Hughton possess a manager who knows this league well. Newcastle (5.10) were promoted with a squad already packed with Premier League quality players and under Rafael Benitez should be OK. 
 
I'm not sure Huddersfield have the resources (1.68) to avoid the drop but that is clearly reflected in the odds. 
 
Two squads that look a little light on player quality but thick on managerial quality are Watford (3.05) and Swansea (3.20). 
 
The big advantage player-wise with these two's chances though being that they boast fine goalkeepers (Heurelho Gomes, Lukasz Fabianski) and powerful centre forwards to lead the line (Troy Deeney, Fernando Llorente), which is always a good start. 
 
I like Palace's carefully-assembled squad (6.80) and though West Brom (7.20) will rarely be pretty to watch, you'd fancy them to get to that magical 38-40 point mark sooner or later. 
 
So Stoke are certainly the value here for me. And if you are going to back them, now is the time to do so. With their first six fixtures including an away trip to Everton and home fixtures against Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal, a sluggish start may mean that quote of 7.40 may be as big as they get for the drop all season. 
 
Recommended Bet 
Back Stoke to be relegated @ 7.4 
 
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi36RuT4x5apncghRwvPqe15k6WJh1QwzpclrmRAdiVon8JuWNeL3eTR7AFaqETNx7Xa5fcGWmQcjvBEB5oT_tc9S8rR_aShO_3h2OoPpuPomROsOGCziMb36KVdbccrIBmKxEyhnLOZhc/s1600/mark-hughes_0.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1029" data-original-width="1600" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi36RuT4x5apncghRwvPqe15k6WJh1QwzpclrmRAdiVon8JuWNeL3eTR7AFaqETNx7Xa5fcGWmQcjvBEB5oT_tc9S8rR_aShO_3h2OoPpuPomROsOGCziMb36KVdbccrIBmKxEyhnLOZhc/s640/mark-hughes_0.jpg" width="640" /></a>

Premier League Relegation: Starless Stoke look set to struggle

When deciding upon my Fantasy Football team ahead of the new season - by the way you can read some good columns about FF right here at betti...

19:21

NRL Preview: Knights v Dragons

NRL Preview 
Newcastle Knights v St George Illawarra Dragons 
Saturday, July 29, 3pm (AEST) at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle 
 
The Knights look near certainties of winning the wooden spoon for a third straight season and 2018 can’t come quick enough with some promising signings for next season. The Dragons shocked everyone last week, posting 50+ points for the first time in a decade in their 52-22 thumping of the Sea Eagles. Rookie Matthew Dufty was outstanding in his debut for the Dragons and his performance against the Sea Eagles has seen Josh Dugan shift to the centres to replace the injured Euan Aitken. Dragons backrower Joel Thompson has been named after being a late withdrawal last week. 
 
History 
The Dragons have won five straight and nine of their last 10 against the Knights. The Dragons won a high-scoring affair 32-28 at Kogarah earlier this season, with winger Jason Nightingale scoring a hat-trick. The Red V have also won 11 of the last 12 matches in Newcastle. 
 
Form 
Newcastle are last on the ladder with just two wins from their 18 games. They have lost eight straight and have conceded at least 28 in six of those. The Knights have the worst defence in the NRL to go with the 14th-ranked attack. St George Illawarra are eighth on the ladder with a 10-8 record and enter this off their first 50-plus point attacking performance in a decade. The Saints have now won four of their last eight. The Dragons have conceded at least 18 points in their last five.  
 
Key Matchup 
Nathan Ross v Matthew Dufty: Nathan Ross has been solid for the Knights all season and looks to have found a home at fullback. No one can ever question his effort and he continues to put in despite the Knights position on the ladder. Debuts don’t get much better than what Matthew Dufty produced against the Sea Eagles last week. His stats make for impressive reading – 1 try, 2 try-assists, 2 line-breaks, 13 tackle-breaks and 15 runs for 188 metres. He has forced Josh Dugan to make his return in the centres and The Wolf is expecting another big performance from “Duffman” against the Knights. 
 
Stats That Matter 
– Newcastle are 8-10 ATS with a 10-8 under record while St George Illawarra are 10-8 ATS with a 10-8 under record. 
 
– The Dragons have won five straight and nine of their last 10 against Newcastle though the last two matches have been decided by four points or fewer. 
 
– The Saints have won 11 of the last 12 matches in Newcastle. 
 
– The last four matches have all topped 48 points. 
 
– The Knights have covered just 2 of their last 7 as a home underdog of 8 or more with the last three going over the total. 
 
– The Knights are 17-13 over in day matches at home since 2014. 
 
– St George Illawarra are 7-3 over when favoured by 8 or more. 
 
– The over is 18-13 when the away team posted 50 dating back to 2008. 
 
Final Thoughts 
The Dragons will be on cloud nine after posting 52 points in their 30-point win over the Sea Eagles last week and will be keen to flex their muscles for a consecutive week. It should be a sunny afternoon in Newcastle on Saturday afternoon and The Wolf is expecting the points to rack up again. Take the overs and the Dragons 13+. 
 
How It’s Shaping Up 
St George Illawarra by 16 
 
Best Bet 
Over 44 ($1.88) 
 
Other Recommended Bets 
St George Illawarra 13+ ($2.10) 
 
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPVAEv675Krk7FGKBwJxT93U6PZm0rkTctepnhyphenhyphenJAaniyLPLNafI5EEVRqUNQCDoDK5thPcx5O7820Wuoh8Na5Icae3ApldvccnGrGEAOd-9AEg29qPr0z3SVkMKuizxPx90w8qUTpPkA/s1600/2017Jul27033619_800673760.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="427" data-original-width="600" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPVAEv675Krk7FGKBwJxT93U6PZm0rkTctepnhyphenhyphenJAaniyLPLNafI5EEVRqUNQCDoDK5thPcx5O7820Wuoh8Na5Icae3ApldvccnGrGEAOd-9AEg29qPr0z3SVkMKuizxPx90w8qUTpPkA/s640/2017Jul27033619_800673760.jpg" width="640" /></a>

NRL Preview: Knights v Dragons

NRL Preview Newcastle Knights v St George Illawarra Dragons Saturday, July 29, 3pm (AEST) at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle The Knigh...

18:41

NRL Preview: Rabbitohs v Raiders

NRL Preview 
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canberra Raiders 
Saturday, July 29, 5:30pm (AEST) at ANZ Stadium, Sydney 
 
Both of these sides have been major disappointments this season and look out of finals calculations after their respective losses last week. The Raiders will be without suspended duo Jordan Rapana and Iosia Soliola, while Josh Papalii still has another week to serve for a shoulder charge. The Rabbitohs have named Sam Burgess despite reports he suffered a rib cartilage injury in last week’s loss to the Sharks. The Wolf says to keep an eye on team news as the Rabbitohs chances here diminish if Burgess is ruled out. 
 
History 
The Raiders have won three of their last four against Souths after dropping five straight v the Rabbitohs. Canberra won the only meeting last year 54-4, with both Jordan Rapana and Elliott Whitehead scoring doubles. 
 
Form 
South Sydney are 14th on the ladder with a 6-12 record. They have lost three straight against an understrength Roosters team, a Cowboys team minus Johnathan Thurston and Cronulla. Souths have won just three of their last 12 games. If they were to drop this, it would be the first time all season they’ve lost four straight. Canberra have won just three of their last 11 matches and are 10th on the ladder with a 7-11 record. Canberra rank seventh in attack and 11th in defence. The Raiders have been kept to 20 or fewer in six straight. 
 
Key Matchup 
Damien Cook v Josh Hodgson: It’s been a frustrating season for Cook after being stuck on the bench playing second fiddle to Robbie Farah. Rabbitohs coach Michael Macguire has given Cook the No.9 jersey for this clash and he’ll be keen to take the opportunity with both hands. Hodgson played lock in last week’s loss to the Storm, but has been named to play hooker this week. It’s been a disappointing season for the England international and he’ll be looking to lift his weakened pack whether it’s at hooker or a roving role at lock when Kurt Baptiste comes on. 
 
Stats That Matter 
– South Sydney are 9-9 ATS with a 10-8 under record while Canberra are 8-10 ATS with a 10-8 under number. 
 
– Canberra have won three of their last four against Souths after dropping five straight v the Rabbitohs. 
 
– Canberra won the only meeting last year 54-4. 
 
– The total has topped 48 points in 11 of the last 12 meetings. 
 
–  The Bunnies have covered just 5 of their last 13 as an underdog at ANZ. 
 
– Canberra have covered just 1 of their last 5 road games but have covered 6 of their last 9 games as a road favourite. 
 
– Road favourites of more than a try off a loss are 19-31 ATS since 2014. 
 
– The Raiders have covered just 1 of their last 9 as a favourite. 
 
Final Thoughts 
The Wolf is taking a gamble and predicting that Sam Burgess won’t take his spot in the Rabbitohs side, making the Raiders the bet in head-to-head and margin betting. The safer option is the overs, with 11 of the last 12 meetings topping 48 points. Both teams have nothing to lose and could play some expansive football. 
 
How It’s Shaping Up 
Canberra by 4 
 
Best Bet 
Over 43.5 ($1.88) 
 
Other Recommended Bets 
Canberra 1-12 ($3) 
 
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK3If2HFvM4OufCt6IvYJSEqrbIDKS_1IUGaZWv2-7Nus2DA4wxViB6y_JpsQ-smd1w00qKKImZWtbv8zeo491HlrYOVZK4d9mzMb5-gT7wjy3Au21xpIMQ1An8VasE5Xz2iInz4LCuD0/s1600/2017Jul27035947_584801418.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="600" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK3If2HFvM4OufCt6IvYJSEqrbIDKS_1IUGaZWv2-7Nus2DA4wxViB6y_JpsQ-smd1w00qKKImZWtbv8zeo491HlrYOVZK4d9mzMb5-gT7wjy3Au21xpIMQ1An8VasE5Xz2iInz4LCuD0/s640/2017Jul27035947_584801418.jpg" width="640" /></a>

NRL Preview: Rabbitohs v Raiders

NRL Preview South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canberra Raiders Saturday, July 29, 5:30pm (AEST) at ANZ Stadium, Sydney Both of these sides have b...

18:39

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International Champions Cup: Sunday Matches

Chelsea v Inter – Sat 9:35pm AEST

This will be the Blues last hit out before the Charity Shield clash against Arsenal while Inter face a very short turn around with just two days off following a clash with Bayern Munich. They did manage to beat Lyon thanks to a late Jovetic goal but holding out the likes of Bayern and Chelsea is a whole new ball game. Bayern made some statement in their win over Chelsea and it was the response Ancelotti was after following a 4-0 loss to AC Milan. Ribery and Muller ran riot in the opening half hour to give the German side an unassailable 3-0 lead. David Luiz and Morato looked much better in the second half while Kante logged the full 90 minutes. We have seen more than our fair share of upsets throughout the tournament but there will not be one here. This is Chelsea’s last chance to get it right before they battle for an early season trophy and The Wolf is expecting Conte’s side to be on song.

Best Bet: Chelsea WIN ($1.72)

Value: Win Both Halves – Chelsea ($4.20)

Man City v Tottenham – Sun 8:00am AEST

Two EPL giants go to battle in what promises to be a high scoring encounter. Spurs have now scored multiple goals in their last 6 matches dating back to the tail end of the Premier League season while Man City were rampant in a 4-0 win over Real Madrid. Tottenham have been the genuine entertainers of the pre season with at least 5 goals being scored in each of their last three fixtures. It should come as no surprise after they closed out the EPL season with 6-1 and 7-1 wins over Leicester and Hull. City’s win over Real Madrid with give them a tonne of confidence despite the match being a pre season contest. The ICC matches have been extremely competitive and the intensity is there to be seen. With most players generally getting 45 minutes we are seeing a fast tempo with all the teams pushing numbers forward at every opportunity. there will be no exception in this one and The Wolf is expecting a handful of goals.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals

Value: Over 3.5 goals

Real Madrid v Barcelona – Sun 9:30am AEST

El Clasico in July – YES PLEASE! Barcelona were in complete control against Man Utd in the first half of what ended as a 1-0 win. Neymar, Surarez and Messi put on a clinic with the Catalan club starving the Red Devils of possession for a good 15 minute stretch. United showed glimpses on the counter early but once Barca took control they showed very little. Valverde played a separate 11 in the second half while Mourinho played Pogba, Rashford and Lukaku for all 90 minutes in an attempt to salvage something. Real Madrid on the other hand are coming off an embarrassing loss. They conceded 3 goals in the space of 15 minutes against Man City. They lacked fluency with their passing and with no Ronaldo in the side they were clearly missing that clinical finish up front. Wolfy is surprised to see Barca as outsiders.

Best: Barcelona WIN ($2.50)

Value: Barcelona 2-0 ($19.00)

Mayweather Jr v McGregor: Why The Notorious can cause a major shock

Where it all began

Prior to entering the world of MMA in 2006, McGregor had in fact been boxing for around three years, competing in close to 40 fights and picked up a Dublin Novice Championship in the process. He trained at Crumlin Boxing Club which has launched the careers of some of Ireland's most celebrated fighters, not least Olympic Gold Medallist Katie Taylor. McGregor's amateur record obviously pales in comparison to the 49 pro victories that Mayweather has clocked up but the key is that his primary fighting background isn't in mixed martial arts but in boxing and this is reflected in the fact that seven of his ten UFC victories have come by way of knockout. The power of his striking really shouldn't be underestimated; McGregor to win by KO/TKO is 5/1.

The fight may already have been won

In 2015, McGregor embarked on a round-the-world press tour before his title bout with Jose Aldo; those who witnessed any of these knew exactly what to expect from Conor this time round in the recent pre-fight shows. That psychological onslaught pushed Aldo, seemingly unbeatable at the time, to the absolute edge. The fight was first delayed due to a contentious injury Aldo picked up in sparring before he was then eventually knocked out by McGregor in 13 seconds; McGregor to win the fight in 60 seconds is 40/1.

Gennady Golovkin's coach, Abel Sanchez, recently gave his thoughts on the bout and underlined the point that Conor needs to make Floyd "uncomfortable" in the hope that he makes a mistake. On that basis, 'The Notorious One' may already have the fight wrapped up.

The tactical edge

Confidence in a McGregor victory has been hard to find but his most recent knockout victim, Eddie Alvarez, was surprisingly positive. He highlighted the need for Conor to keep his hands busy in the early rounds and no-one knows his punching power better than someone that's felt it first-hand. It's also worth noting that the Irishman holds a marked size advantage over Mayweather and Floyd has often struggled against southpaw fighters, not to mention McGregor's likely unorthodox in-ring movement.

Much has been made of the 11 year age gap between the fighters but stamina has been an Achilles heel for McGregor in the Octagon and was cited as the main reason behind his defeat to Nate Diaz. If the fight goes beyond the first four or five rounds it undoubtedly plays into Mayweather's favour even more, so focus on McGregor to win in Round 1-3 at 10/1.

Recommended Bets
McGregor to win by KO/TKO @ 5/1
McGregor to win in Round 1-3 @ 10/1
£7.5m already bet on fight with a month still to go

Katie Baylis, Betfair Spokesperson, said: “It’s now a month until one of the most anticipated fights in recent memory, and we have seen a phenomenal amount of money already bet, with £7.5m bet on the outcome alone.

“Floyd Mayweather Jr may be the hot 1/6 favourite, with Conor McGregor at 6/1, but while almost 80% of the money is for Mayweather, 40% of bets are actually on McGregor to cause what would be a monumental upset, with 34% on the favoured Mayweather and 26% on the draw.

“The biggest single bet was £100k on Mayweather Jr at the start of the month when his odds were around 1/5 and we expect to see plenty more bets of this nature as we get closer to the fight that we predict will be the biggest boxing betting event in Betfair Exchange history.”

Carl Frampton v Andres Gutierrez: Back The Jackal to stop dangerous Mexican

Carl Frampton v Andres Gutierrez
Saturday, 22:00
Live on Five

The Jackal promised fans he would bring big fights back to his home town, and he's done exactly that here.

On paper, Frampton vs Guttierrez looks an even match up, with both men losing only once before, but layers are having none of it, pricing the local hero as a convincing favourite at just 1.07.

If you too fancy a Frampton win, there's not an awful lot to get excited about in the match odds betting, so we need to dig a bit deeper for a share of value.

Thirty-year-old Frampton lost his first professional fight in 24 outings last time, going down to old rival Leo Santa Cruz on a majority decision. The Brit dropped his WBA world title in the process, and to make matters worse, it came by the tightest of margins, a majority decision on the scorecards. One judge sat ringside at the MGM Grand back in January called the bout a draw, his two colleagues giving it to Cruz by just two rounds.

Tough, but considering Frampton did the same to Cruz the time before, perhaps it was a little easier to get over and pick out the positives from his effort. Last year, Frampton again put his title on the line in America, this time getting the nod over Santa Cruz in a majority - draw, four rounds and six rounds the difference that night.

Both previous meetings of Frampton and Cruz have been agonisingly close, and with the score sitting at 1-1, we simply have to have the trilogy. Fans want it, the fighters want it and, of course, the game's money men would love it. If that decider is to happen, Frampton has to win here, and convincingly too. This is little more than a bout to keep him warm in the meantime, but lose this and The Jackal will have no right to call on a third with Santa Cruz.

Mexican Andres Gutierrez is no mere opponent either; when Frampton said he didn't want to cut corners in his comeback, he wasn't kidding. The away fighter brings a record of 35 wins against one loss and a draw. Just to make things more interesting, his sole defeat also came on a majority points decision, against Cristian Mijares in Mexico for the WBC Silver last summer.

Gutierrez, 24, got back on track with a sixth round TKO win over Wallington Orobio last time, a bout he was expected to win, but did so convincingly. Betfair Sportsbook has the upset at 10/1, while there's 15.00 currently going around on the Exchange on victory for Andres.

A Frampton win looks nailed on here and, although this should be closer than the betting suggests, I do think the favourite will get the desired result. Each of The Jackal's last three wins have all come on points, and that's the way the market expects this to go, but I'm taking the value about a KO/TKO win. Back it at anything better than 2.50 when the market becomes liquid.

Gutierrez has boxed at super bantamweight for a large part of his career. Against a strong, relentless featherweight, cheered on by a fiercely loyal support, the man in the away corner will soon find out he's in for a tough night.

Recommended Bet
Back Carl Frampton to beat Andres Gutierrez via KO/TKO at 2.50 or better

Premier League Relegation: Starless Stoke look set to struggle

When deciding upon my Fantasy Football team ahead of the new season - by the way you can read some good columns about FF right here at betting.betfair - I start by looking at which teams have easy or hard fixtures in the first couple of months. My next step is to go through each team with a kind early fixture list and make a note of players that might be of interest to make my shortlist.

By the time I'd gone through Stoke's squad, no-one had made it, probably the first time that's ever happened.

Big names out the door

Jon Walters, a mainstay for the Republic of Ireland side with his aggression, ability to play in different roles and reliability from the penalty spot has moved on to Burnley, where he's likely to be an important player for the Clarets.

Then there's Marko Arnautovic. A frustrating performer who can blow hot and cold - much like a Riyad Mahrez or a Ross Barkley - but undoubtedly a player with the X-factor. With huge upper body strength, vision and natural talent he can create as well as destroy. It's hard to turn down an offer of around £20 million from West Ham when you're Stoke, the player didn't cost much to start with and is happy to move on for bigger wages at a club in the capital with a higher profile. But he's left a big gap nonetheless.

Glenn Whelan has also signed for Aston Villa, though that's arguably less of a major loss.

Add to that the fact that Wilfried Bony, a player who has been out of sorts for the last three years or so but still has huge potential won't be returning for a second stint and the question Stoke fans will be asking themselves is: when will it end? Or perhaps: we can see who's going out... but who exactly is coming in?

Signings have been thin on the ground

At the moment the list is limited to Kurt Zouma, an excellent defender albeit one who's hardly played for a year and Josh Hyman, who joined from Hull having made just five senior appearances his whole career.

Now, I'm not suggesting that a side who doesn't have any players making my Fantasy Football team is destined for relegation. Bournemouth and Burnley players didn't make my team at any stage last season either and ended up being just fine.

And to stretch the argument to another sport- Northamptonshire's T20 side is the ultimate band of misfits where the only 'star' at all is once-England man Ben Duckett- yet they've won two of the last four editions of the T20 Blast. All good examples of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts.

But what I am saying is that in the absence of any stars beyond the mercurial Shaqiri and the reliable Joe Allen, I'm not sure the remainder of the squad is any great shakes. How long can Peter Crouch, Darren Fletcher and to a lesser extent Ryan Shawcross and Glen Johnson be expected to carry on performing at this level?

Will Jack Butland and Saido Beharino ever return to the form of two years ago? Mark Hughes claims that he's on the lookout for replacements but despite some glitzy names joining the Potters over the past few years, moving a top-class player to the city of Stoke isn't the easiest of tasks in football.

Personally, I can't see the likes of Alex Oxlaide-Chamberlain making the move there. Let's wait and see.

Odds don't reflect Stoke's chances of staying up

The point though, as illustrated very eloquently by Ed Hawkins (in this case about cricket but it can extend to any sport) isn't so much: will Stoke be relegated? But rather: should Stoke be 7.40 to be relegated? The answer must be no.

Though the three seasons between 2013 and 2016 saw consecutive ninth-placed finishes, Stoke slid to 13th last year. They look like a team that's regressing and those high-profile exits may just be the turning point.

The field

Brighton (2.36) were highly impressive last season and in Chris Hughton possess a manager who knows this league well. Newcastle (5.10) were promoted with a squad already packed with Premier League quality players and under Rafael Benitez should be OK.

I'm not sure Huddersfield have the resources (1.68) to avoid the drop but that is clearly reflected in the odds.

Two squads that look a little light on player quality but thick on managerial quality are Watford (3.05) and Swansea (3.20).

The big advantage player-wise with these two's chances though being that they boast fine goalkeepers (Heurelho Gomes, Lukasz Fabianski) and powerful centre forwards to lead the line (Troy Deeney, Fernando Llorente), which is always a good start.

I like Palace's carefully-assembled squad (6.80) and though West Brom (7.20) will rarely be pretty to watch, you'd fancy them to get to that magical 38-40 point mark sooner or later.

So Stoke are certainly the value here for me. And if you are going to back them, now is the time to do so. With their first six fixtures including an away trip to Everton and home fixtures against Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal, a sluggish start may mean that quote of 7.40 may be as big as they get for the drop all season.

Recommended Bet
Back Stoke to be relegated @ 7.4

NRL Preview: Knights v Dragons

NRL Preview
Newcastle Knights v St George Illawarra Dragons
Saturday, July 29, 3pm (AEST) at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

The Knights look near certainties of winning the wooden spoon for a third straight season and 2018 can’t come quick enough with some promising signings for next season. The Dragons shocked everyone last week, posting 50+ points for the first time in a decade in their 52-22 thumping of the Sea Eagles. Rookie Matthew Dufty was outstanding in his debut for the Dragons and his performance against the Sea Eagles has seen Josh Dugan shift to the centres to replace the injured Euan Aitken. Dragons backrower Joel Thompson has been named after being a late withdrawal last week.

History
The Dragons have won five straight and nine of their last 10 against the Knights. The Dragons won a high-scoring affair 32-28 at Kogarah earlier this season, with winger Jason Nightingale scoring a hat-trick. The Red V have also won 11 of the last 12 matches in Newcastle.

Form
Newcastle are last on the ladder with just two wins from their 18 games. They have lost eight straight and have conceded at least 28 in six of those. The Knights have the worst defence in the NRL to go with the 14th-ranked attack. St George Illawarra are eighth on the ladder with a 10-8 record and enter this off their first 50-plus point attacking performance in a decade. The Saints have now won four of their last eight. The Dragons have conceded at least 18 points in their last five.

Key Matchup
Nathan Ross v Matthew Dufty: Nathan Ross has been solid for the Knights all season and looks to have found a home at fullback. No one can ever question his effort and he continues to put in despite the Knights position on the ladder. Debuts don’t get much better than what Matthew Dufty produced against the Sea Eagles last week. His stats make for impressive reading – 1 try, 2 try-assists, 2 line-breaks, 13 tackle-breaks and 15 runs for 188 metres. He has forced Josh Dugan to make his return in the centres and The Wolf is expecting another big performance from “Duffman” against the Knights.

Stats That Matter
– Newcastle are 8-10 ATS with a 10-8 under record while St George Illawarra are 10-8 ATS with a 10-8 under record.

– The Dragons have won five straight and nine of their last 10 against Newcastle though the last two matches have been decided by four points or fewer.

– The Saints have won 11 of the last 12 matches in Newcastle.

– The last four matches have all topped 48 points.

– The Knights have covered just 2 of their last 7 as a home underdog of 8 or more with the last three going over the total.

– The Knights are 17-13 over in day matches at home since 2014.

– St George Illawarra are 7-3 over when favoured by 8 or more.

– The over is 18-13 when the away team posted 50 dating back to 2008.

Final Thoughts
The Dragons will be on cloud nine after posting 52 points in their 30-point win over the Sea Eagles last week and will be keen to flex their muscles for a consecutive week. It should be a sunny afternoon in Newcastle on Saturday afternoon and The Wolf is expecting the points to rack up again. Take the overs and the Dragons 13+.

How It’s Shaping Up
St George Illawarra by 16

Best Bet
Over 44 ($1.88)

Other Recommended Bets
St George Illawarra 13+ ($2.10)

NRL Preview: Rabbitohs v Raiders

NRL Preview
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canberra Raiders
Saturday, July 29, 5:30pm (AEST) at ANZ Stadium, Sydney

Both of these sides have been major disappointments this season and look out of finals calculations after their respective losses last week. The Raiders will be without suspended duo Jordan Rapana and Iosia Soliola, while Josh Papalii still has another week to serve for a shoulder charge. The Rabbitohs have named Sam Burgess despite reports he suffered a rib cartilage injury in last week’s loss to the Sharks. The Wolf says to keep an eye on team news as the Rabbitohs chances here diminish if Burgess is ruled out.

History
The Raiders have won three of their last four against Souths after dropping five straight v the Rabbitohs. Canberra won the only meeting last year 54-4, with both Jordan Rapana and Elliott Whitehead scoring doubles.

Form
South Sydney are 14th on the ladder with a 6-12 record. They have lost three straight against an understrength Roosters team, a Cowboys team minus Johnathan Thurston and Cronulla. Souths have won just three of their last 12 games. If they were to drop this, it would be the first time all season they’ve lost four straight. Canberra have won just three of their last 11 matches and are 10th on the ladder with a 7-11 record. Canberra rank seventh in attack and 11th in defence. The Raiders have been kept to 20 or fewer in six straight.

Key Matchup
Damien Cook v Josh Hodgson: It’s been a frustrating season for Cook after being stuck on the bench playing second fiddle to Robbie Farah. Rabbitohs coach Michael Macguire has given Cook the No.9 jersey for this clash and he’ll be keen to take the opportunity with both hands. Hodgson played lock in last week’s loss to the Storm, but has been named to play hooker this week. It’s been a disappointing season for the England international and he’ll be looking to lift his weakened pack whether it’s at hooker or a roving role at lock when Kurt Baptiste comes on.

Stats That Matter
– South Sydney are 9-9 ATS with a 10-8 under record while Canberra are 8-10 ATS with a 10-8 under number.

– Canberra have won three of their last four against Souths after dropping five straight v the Rabbitohs.

– Canberra won the only meeting last year 54-4.

– The total has topped 48 points in 11 of the last 12 meetings.

– The Bunnies have covered just 5 of their last 13 as an underdog at ANZ.

– Canberra have covered just 1 of their last 5 road games but have covered 6 of their last 9 games as a road favourite.

– Road favourites of more than a try off a loss are 19-31 ATS since 2014.

– The Raiders have covered just 1 of their last 9 as a favourite.

Final Thoughts
The Wolf is taking a gamble and predicting that Sam Burgess won’t take his spot in the Rabbitohs side, making the Raiders the bet in head-to-head and margin betting. The safer option is the overs, with 11 of the last 12 meetings topping 48 points. Both teams have nothing to lose and could play some expansive football.

How It’s Shaping Up
Canberra by 4

Best Bet
Over 43.5 ($1.88)

Other Recommended Bets
Canberra 1-12 ($3)

Top

International Champions Cup: Sunday Matches

Mayweather Jr v McGregor: Why The Notorious can cause a major shock

Carl Frampton v Andres Gutierrez: Back The Jackal to stop dangerous Mexican

Premier League Relegation: Starless Stoke look set to struggle

NRL Preview: Knights v Dragons

NRL Preview: Rabbitohs v Raiders

Arsenal v Aston Villa: Fragile Gunners struggling to shine

Gremio to take advantage of a distracted Flamengo

Euro 2020 Qualifiers Sunday Tips: French resistance is weakening

ATP Tour Finals Day Eight: Not much to split Tsitsipas and Thiem

Saturday Premier League Tipsheet: Back goals at West Brom in pre-Christmas cracker

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Blog Archive

International Champions Cup: Sunday Matches

Mayweather Jr v McGregor: Why The Notorious can cause a major shock

Carl Frampton v Andres Gutierrez: Back The Jackal to stop dangerous Mexican

Premier League Relegation: Starless Stoke look set to struggle

NRL Preview: Knights v Dragons

NRL Preview: Rabbitohs v Raiders