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South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canberra Raiders
Saturday, July 29, 5:30pm (AEST) at ANZ Stadium, Sydney

Both of these sides have been major disappointments this season and look out of finals calculations after their respective losses last week. The Raiders will be without suspended duo Jordan Rapana and Iosia Soliola, while Josh Papalii still has another week to serve for a shoulder charge. The Rabbitohs have named Sam Burgess despite reports he suffered a rib cartilage injury in last week’s loss to the Sharks. The Wolf says to keep an eye on team news as the Rabbitohs chances here diminish if Burgess is ruled out.

History
The Raiders have won three of their last four against Souths after dropping five straight v the Rabbitohs. Canberra won the only meeting last year 54-4, with both Jordan Rapana and Elliott Whitehead scoring doubles.

Form
South Sydney are 14th on the ladder with a 6-12 record. They have lost three straight against an understrength Roosters team, a Cowboys team minus Johnathan Thurston and Cronulla. Souths have won just three of their last 12 games. If they were to drop this, it would be the first time all season they’ve lost four straight. Canberra have won just three of their last 11 matches and are 10th on the ladder with a 7-11 record. Canberra rank seventh in attack and 11th in defence. The Raiders have been kept to 20 or fewer in six straight.

Key Matchup
Damien Cook v Josh Hodgson: It’s been a frustrating season for Cook after being stuck on the bench playing second fiddle to Robbie Farah. Rabbitohs coach Michael Macguire has given Cook the No.9 jersey for this clash and he’ll be keen to take the opportunity with both hands. Hodgson played lock in last week’s loss to the Storm, but has been named to play hooker this week. It’s been a disappointing season for the England international and he’ll be looking to lift his weakened pack whether it’s at hooker or a roving role at lock when Kurt Baptiste comes on.

Stats That Matter
– South Sydney are 9-9 ATS with a 10-8 under record while Canberra are 8-10 ATS with a 10-8 under number.

– Canberra have won three of their last four against Souths after dropping five straight v the Rabbitohs.

– Canberra won the only meeting last year 54-4.

– The total has topped 48 points in 11 of the last 12 meetings.

–  The Bunnies have covered just 5 of their last 13 as an underdog at ANZ.

– Canberra have covered just 1 of their last 5 road games but have covered 6 of their last 9 games as a road favourite.

– Road favourites of more than a try off a loss are 19-31 ATS since 2014.

– The Raiders have covered just 1 of their last 9 as a favourite.

Final Thoughts
The Wolf is taking a gamble and predicting that Sam Burgess won’t take his spot in the Rabbitohs side, making the Raiders the bet in head-to-head and margin betting. The safer option is the overs, with 11 of the last 12 meetings topping 48 points. Both teams have nothing to lose and could play some expansive football.

How It’s Shaping Up
Canberra by 4

Best Bet
Over 43.5 ($1.88)

Other Recommended Bets
Canberra 1-12 ($3)


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