AFL Preview: Blues v Cats

Carlton v Geelong
Saturday 7:25pm at Etihad Stadium

Geelong will be hoping to maintain second position the ladder against a Carlton team in all sorts following a loss to Brisbane.

Form
Carlton have reached a low-point in their season with five straight losses culminating in a 30-point defeat to last-placed Brisbane last Sunday. All five of those defeats have come by five goals or less though. Carlton are 16th on the ladder with the worst attack to go with the 10th ranked defence. The Blues have been kept to 83 or less in seven straight.

Geelong are second on the ladder with an 11-5-1 record. The Cats enter this off a loss to top-of-the-table Adelaide, just their second loss in their last nine matches. Geelong rank third in scoring and seventh in defence. The Cats have been kept to 90 points or fewer in five of their last six games but have not conceded more than 91 in 10 matches.

Stats That Matter

– Geelong have won 12 of the last 15 against Carlton but the Blues did win the last meeting against the Cats.
– Carlton have covered 4 of the last 6 against Geelong.
– The over has hit in 4 of the last 5 Blues-Cats clashes.
– Carlton are 26-19 ATS at Etihad since 2012, covering their last three.
– Geelong are 11-15 ATS at Etihad since 2012.
– The Cats are 1-11 ATS at Etihad when favoured by more than three goals.
– Carlton are 16-9 ATS at Etihad as an underdog.
– The Blues are 19-12 ATS after conceding 110 or more.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Carlton 10-7, Geelong 8-9
2017 Over-Under: Carlton 7-10, Geelong 8-9

What To Expect
Get in the queue for the Blues because they shape as a five-chipper against Carlton. The line here is well out of whack. The Cats are awful propositions at Etihad as a big favourite while the Blues are reliable as an underdog at the venue. Expect this one to be well closer than the line suggests.

How It’s Shaping Up
Geelong by 10

Recommended Bet
Carlton +30.5 ($1.91)